Handicapper Tips & Picks

Great prep for the August 10^th Romacacca. Would have to expect 3-SHE CAN’T SING to be the best of this compact but deep field. This multiple stakes-winning mare has earned over $860,000 while winning eight of her 36 races. She has yet to visit the winner’s circle in 2023 but did finish third in two of her three races while meeting tougher fields. 2-WAVE OF GOODNESS beat only one in her most recent race but at least three members of that field came back to win their next start, suggesting that field was extremely tough. Gets no reprieve in this spot but if she regains the form she had prior to that last, with a win and a close second in two New Orleans stakes races, she’s going to be far more of a factor in this one. 5-CAT ATTACK isn’t likely to be the only speed but she just might get the drop on the rest. She is coming off a wire-to-wire victory. Metes tougher here but could be a threat to repeat.

2-GIANNA’S GIFT could wire them. She’s making her first start since March but she has been training well during her break. She has a history of running well off layoffs. However, the layoff as well as the presence of so much other speed could prove too taxing. Choice but a slim one. 1-RONAN drops out of allowance company. She showed little in last but she had been in good form for a long time prior to that race. Stretches out. Could display somewhat better speed but think she’ll save her best move for the stretch. 3-EMITYAAZ seems a bit slower than most of her rivals but that could work in her favor. There’s a chance that the rest of the field will be vying for the lead. It’s possible that she can pick off the tiring runners late. 5-LUCY’S LOOKIN LEFT might display better speed with the stretch in distance but since she generally comes from off the pace, she might be relaxed enough to do it in this race. She generally finishes very well. Could outfinish them all. 4-FREE LOVE is as quick as any in here. She won three of her nine races including two of last three. If she jumps to the early lead she might never look back. 

1-COUGAR looks like the best of the speed and she’s been in terrific form, finishing out of the money only once in her last 10 starts. She just finished third against the boys. She’s stretching out today and her speed could be enhanced with the stretch in distance. In her last four routes, she won one time and finished second in the other three. They’ll have to catch her, 3-MARIA’S GIFT meets the easiest field of her career. The last time she ran here she was facing $25k claimers. Might be better in sprints but she still figures to be extremely tough at this level. 4-GHAALEB’S DREAMS didn’t look too sharp in last couple but she’s also dropping in class. 

Have to figure that 6-NO KAY NEVER will make amends. She went off as the odds-on favorite in last when making her local debut. She never really fired. But she was stakes-placed at two and ran well at Saratoga in another stakes. That last race was her first since early October. Should be in far better form for this race. 2-STARS ON FIRE, stablemate of top choice, beat her partner in that last race while going off at a much higher price. This filly broke her maiden here in her prior start. Like top pick, she was making her first start of the year in that last race and she should be fitter for this one. 4-LURE’EM IN tired in a stakes race at Canterbury in last but she was stretched out to a route for that grassy contest. Turns back in distance for this. She should finish with a ton of run and might be able to surprise.

There’s no guarantee that 6-LOVEYOULIKECRAZY will win this race but it’s hard to conceive that any of her rivals in here can beat her. She finished second in the Debutante in her final start of 2022 and ran well in her first two starts this year. None of her rivals have shown a thing. Her recent bullet drill looks like the icing on the cake. If any in here had ANY chance of beating top choice, it would probably be 5-FREEDOM ATTACK. She’s already had 10 starts but has managed only one second-place finish. However, she is moving back to state breds for this and she did finish only a couple lengths behind top choice when last they met. 4-NAPABIT displays decent speed at times. Has a chance to hang on.

Not in love with any in here so I figured I’d take a flyer with 1-BELPERRON. She’s making her first start of the year off a series of good drills. She showed little in her first two starts last year but took nearly three months off and came back an entirely different individual. She’s bred for the lawn even though she showed little in her career debut on turf. I like that she’s shown versatility and it’s hard to gauge just how the pace of this race will set up. 8-PEACH COBBLER is probably the one to beat after a second-place finish against similar in her first local start of the year. However, she could get caught up in a speed duel which could compromise her chances. Trying to make sense of 7-TAR HEEL GIRL’S last race. She finished second in that race on what was listed as a firm turf course. However, the fractions of that race were almost glacial, though she did earn one of the highest speed figures of any in here. Adds blinkers and cuts back in distance. Don’t know if they’ll send her or try to come from out of it. 2-MADELYN BELLE is another interesting runner. Her first two starts were against Illinois maidens. She narrowly lost her first but destroyed the field in her last under a hand ride. Meets winners, faces open company and tries turf for the first time but wouldn’t count her out. 

Interesting race. In a contest like this, with four of the five confirmed front runners I would normally choose the one runner not likely to try for the lead. However, I don’t think that Star Nation is fast enough. So, I have to pick one of the five early burners to outlast the rest. Not an easy task. Wound up with morning-line favorite 2-FIT TO FLY but this is anything but a strong choice. He’s been able to last under pressure and pull away late, which he did in last two. Might have to do the same thing today. Like top choice, 4-ONASA won his last two starts. He might not be quite as quick as some in here but he was able to press the pace in last without taking the early lead and still win by a couple. 3-CORTESE is as quick as any in here but he’s been off since November and the pace of this race could be grueling. Fitness might be an issue. 1-LOOKIN FOR BALA could break on top and he’s another that has shown the ability to last under pressure. He just missed in last as the odds-on favorite and could easily make amends today.

This is truly one of those “anybody can win” races. 9-EXPROMPT is lightly raced the last couple years and in his lone start so far this year, he finished a non-threatening fifth out of five, though that race was moved to the main track and this runner had only a few dirt starts with pretty much the same results. On the plus side, this is probably the easiest field he ever met on the lawn but that fact has to be tempered with the fact that the race is longer than his preference and the sparsity of recent races might leave him short. Slim pick. 8-FLY NIGHTLY swings right back after winning his last at this level. He’s cutting back in distance and one of my favorite plays has been runners cutting back from a mile and a sixteenth to seven and a half. His speed will have him close throughout and he might finish with more authority at this shorter distance. 3-DYNABLUE finished third in all three of his local turf races this year and he could find himself in the same spot again today. 2-VITALE has speed and staying power. Could be in the thick of things throughout.