Handicapper Tips & Picks

#1 QUICK AND DIRTY has recorded some of the higher OptixFIG in this field and those races over he turf as well. Those numbers stand out on this field and fit here as the horse to beat for Campbell. She was scheduled to return on the grass from the 807-day layoff back on June 20^th and has been entered three times between then and today’s race all races coming off the turf at Mountaineer.

Felix gave #6 TEXAS PRINCESS the same trip (after a SLOG) on June 29^th from the June 4^th return off the layoff. She can improve off both of those efforts returning under similar conditions today with a better ride and allowing her to show the tactical speed she is capable of. #5 SANGFROID was upgraded on June 29^th returning to the turf and ran to it. There was intent to get her back on the TURF this season, and back to the surface she started off her career on back in 2020. Irion also shows up with #2 ONACOUNTA for her debut and tough to knock a “new face” in this field with a solid rider in Colon aboard here. 

The big drop for #7 BE MY BESTIE makes her a clear standout in this field. She already moved up with the class drop shifting to the turf, though coming up short pairing place finishes and B- OptixGRADE, the connections make the move once again and recognize the win should also result in a claim today.

#5 TWICK OR TWEAT caught a class dropper on July 9^th her first start off the claim for Watkins. She also caught herself acting up in the GATE and lost her footing (TROUBLE_S) as the gates opened. A bit more composed in the stall, she could show more early speed today and looks to be intent wheeling right back in two weeks and making a rider change to Arrieta, a rider that has had success for this outfit this season.

The class drop is also in play for #2 SONG OF AMERICA and should assist overall, though as the likely second choice, she does not hold much of an edge over others in here. #1 STRONGENOUGHSTORM has made some progress since she was at this level back in April and with the return to the lower maiden claiming level, looks to be more competitive against today’s group. Her 57 OptixFIG from back on April 27^th sits in line with the current figures for SONG OF AMERICA and should be a big shift in odds on the board between these two. 

Winebaugh will return with the same pair from the June 28^th race including the winner #7 DANVILLE. They will look for the third win in a row and win back at the same level. He is a logical type and tough to knock on current form and what appears to be another favorable race shape for his trip. Stablemate #4 GAME BOY BENNY was an unknown stretching back in distance for the first time in a long time and showed he handled the distance, though was flattered by a softer pace while LONE on the lead and projects to find more early Contention with the Sun and 29 SpeedRate – five of the seven sharing the E/EP RunStyle.

#1 BEEALEA could fly under the radar in this race and holds buried form under similar conditions this meet. He turned in a B- OptixGRADE with an 82 OptixFIG back on April 27^th with a WIDE trip. He did not return to the $13.5k OC condition until June 8^th where once again he turned in a B- OptixGRADE and 81 OptixFIG. 

Rivelli will start a pair in this race and appears the intent with #4 MOMS CHANNEL picking up Centeno and holding a longer series of works than #3 GO MARGIE GO. Both are capable and can look for further signs in the pools and paddock to separate.

#2 SHE CAN SCAT worked a solid 10.2 back in March at OBS and comes into this race with a solid series of works for Winebaugh, a barn capable with debut runners and has sent out live horses all meet.

#1 BIG RED WAVE showed some speed working 11.2 at the Timonium sale back in May. She has worked since and seemed to need more fitness as she was tiring at the end of the drill. Stablemate #8 BECCA BELLE worked a quicker 10.4 though was all out and mechanically not the most efficient mover.  

#5 MISS SAINT is the lone runner in this field with experience and experience she needed first out. She looked green right from the SLOG and the rail draw doing her no favors. She returns here with Hernandez, shift from the inside and the race under her belt.

#6 SWEET SMILA is an IL-bred looking to step up against open company first out. Robertson has solid debut numbers and numbers this season with Felix in the saddle, though typically debuts later in the season and this one has plenty of works to suggest they are race ready. #7 REALISTIC GOAL looks to have some run despite the limited published work tab. Many for Manny have debuted live, though have struggled from the gate breaking slow and something to at the least mention. 

#2 MONEY AGENT earned a follow from his local debut on June 8^th making a positive physical (PRERACE+) in the paddock and showing some run after the SLOG and seemed to be given the start. That “give” could have continued in the Hawthorne Derby, a contentious spot and did not have much of a chance to get into the running as the winner, Act a Fool, controlled the race gate-to-wire. Stablemate #4 WOLF HUNTER is the more established of the pair and could have that edge as an older horses on his side, though overall must show more to get the win at this level.

#3 EVEN THE WIND was given a follow off a near “excuse” on debut at Tampa and has continued to improve race-to-race and on this circuit. The rider change to Esquivel and addition of blinkers suggest intent today. Stablemate #6 COOL AND COLLECTED did not live up to his name on debut as he was RANK and GREEN, a handful from start to finish. He was scheduled to return on June 29^th (Tavares named and sticks with Money Agent) though a vet scratch unable to participate and shows up with another rider named as Colon picks up the mount.

#5 REGIMENTAL has recorded some of the higher figures on the turf and those numbers fit in line with today’s field and OFR. More was expected from him as the favorite on July 6^th, though he did not receive a good trip/TACTIC- racing in TRAFFIC impacting his race and outcome.

#1 INDIO GUAPO physically looks suited to the TURF and returning to the grass today though as far as class that is a different hurdle as he will again be tested here against Special Weight company. Class will also be a test for #8 C V JERSEY BEE making his debut with the outside draw and giving up experience in this field. There has been intent for today’s surface/distance keying off a scratch just weeks ago (7/13) from a similar Special Weight event at Belterra Park. 

#8 CHISPARRAJOS has the edge of the runners with experience earning the higher B- OptixGRADE and 74 OptixFIG. He showed run after the SLOG and behind the top two, Five O’ Somewhere (bet down shipping in from CD) and Ravin’s Town (Rivelli FTS) those top two dueled through the stretch and finished together at the wire.

Bad Cox shows up with his first starter this season in #9 GOOD LIKE MAGIC with Esquivel aboard. This colt has been working consistently at HS Indy where Cox is stabled and there could be some concern as they pick this spot rather than that home base. Some consideration could be given with HS Indy on summer break and this timing working out. Keeping on the HS Indy trend, IN-bred #5 HEDGEHOGINTHEFOG might not be showing his hand off the published works and one that picks this spot for the initial start though ultimately could end up at HS Indy before the end of the year.

Rivelli will return in this spot with a pair as well both on debut and could see #7 GIMME THE CANDY fancied of the pair. He was picked up back in April after working 10 flat and still a bit green at the time. Since the purchase, he worked consistently up through the first part of June though shows a gap from June 11^th until July 5^th.  #3 GIMME A KISS has worked consistently though shorter distances until the recent half-mile moves as he lands here for the debut against open company. 

#1 AVIANO started his career on the turf and returns to the grass for the first time this season in this spot. His form here at Hawthorne has been consistent for Meraz, with both the April and May dirt races competitive and in line with today’s N3L condition.

#3 SPORT PEPPER is another that could find himself back at home on the turf. He broke his maiden first time on the surface at Arlington Park back in 2021 and the only other grass race was the Pulpit Stakes closing out his juvenile season. He has shown progress this year improving with each race and the connections running today first time for a tag looks to have the intent showing up in a spot where he can win.

#4 VERRAZANOINTHESKY takes a different path as he steps back up in class for this event first off the Winebaugh claim. The jump is not as much of a concern as he was competitive for the $25k tag at the N2L condition earlier this meet, nor is the turf with the route distance the biggest unknown making just his second career start today around two turns. 

#1 SIMPSON BAY was impressive to overcome serious adversity to break his maiden on June 14^th. He has been off the 39-days since and the return here in for the $6250k tag comes with reservations – especially with alternatives in the field.

#8 LIMA ZULU has legit early speed and upgraded on Surface/Distance Plot shifting to a Square, the edge over Circles #4 SWISS GUARD (vet scratch at this level on 5/31) and #6 SNOWMOBILE on the class drop.

#7 LAMELO will look to rebound today and make his second start in against winners. He comes into this race on an “every other” speed figure pattern and returning to his top effort puts him back in the mix with others in this field.

#9 FABRICATOR has gone backwards since his maiden win on May 25^th. In those two starts that followed, the front wraps were added and perhaps a change/removal signals a positive sign and something to look for on race day. Tavares remains with Fabricator for this race and opening up the mount for Reyes aboard #5 DASTARDLY DEEDS, one that is moving forward since the freshening coming back on June 14^th. 

Really tough turf race to start the card. Not a huge fan of any how have run as I'll go to 2-ONACOUNTA as she debuts. She has a nice work pattern, gets Lasix and is bred to handle turf and two turns. Let's see how she looks in the paddock and what type of action she takes. 6-TEXAS PRINCESS has run a pair of races at this level and distance, running evenly in both. A repeat of those performances should be enough to make her a threat to be in the mix late. 1-QUICK AND DIRTY came back off a long layoff for her last and was intended for the turf but stayed in when the race came off. She may have needed that race though as she should show some speed if ready.

Sometimes the favorite is just the best horse. It's a massive drop but 7-BE MY BESTIE is a standout in this spot. She has speed and should be able to clear and never look back. If she is challenged or misses the break, maybe 3-EVIE JEAN rates and runs on late. She has been in her best form of her career this season but the 0 for 24 record is tough to overlook. 2-SONG OF AMERICA is the one that could challenge Be My Bestie as she also takes the plunge. She seems to want the front end but also seems to fold up when challenged.

On paper this looks to be the rematch of 6-MOMENT and 7-DANVILLE as the only two in the race, but I wonder if 3-BOOTDADDY JUSTICE can be in a spot to upset? He was claimed for $15k in February and has a good stalking style. The pace should be honest ahead of him as he looks to close in the lane. 6-MOMENT is at his best on the front end but there are two to three others in here that may look to challenge as well. He has six wins in eight starts at Hawthorne and has never finished out of the money here. Let's see if he can withstand the likely pace pressure in this spot. 7-DANVILLE has won his last two but was five lengths back of Moment when the two met three starts back. He does have some tactical speed and could get a great setup ahead of him.

Looks to be a nice field of juvenile fillies in this spot. 2-SHE CAN SCAT has a good workout pattern leading into here as she appears fit and ready for her debut. The barn has had an excellent meet as well. 3-GO MARGIE GO figures to take a massive amount of action for a barn that wins early as this one has all bullet drills. The only concern is none of the works are further than three furlongs so we will have to see if she can get the final eighth. 5-MISS SAINT has a race under her belt as she may have needed that start. Let's see if she can get away more quickly today and contend into the lane.

This turf event looks to come down to three horses. 3-EVEN THE WIND is one that I have followed since he debuted at Tampa this winter. His two starts here have been solid and he picks up Manny Esquivel in the saddle as Indiana takes a week off from racing. 4-WOLF HUNTER returns to the maiden ranks where he finished ahead of Even the Wind two starts back. He ran in the Hawthorne Derby last out and held his own as he contended well into the lane. Let's see if he shows more speed in here. 5-REGIMENTAL has also posted some solid figures that would make him tough. His style tends to set him a bit further back off the early pace but he should be able to close some ground in the lane.

A really nice bunch here as trainer Brad Cox sends in 9-GOOD LIKE MAGIC to debut. With the short run into the first turn he will have to look to get away quickly from the outside, but he has a good string of drills, including a nice gate work on June 23. 7-GIMME THE CANDY posted back to back bullet works before an easy half mile coming into here. This barn always seems to have them ready to roll as Emigh could be on the gas early. 3-GIMME A KISS will likely have to leave from the inside to avoid any traffic into the turn. His gate drill on June 18 shows that there's some early zip as he could be winging it from the start.

It's all or nothing with 1-Simpson Bay in here but I can't trust this horse on the drop off a tremendous effort against MSW company last out. Something just seems suspect with this move. For me it's the 6-SNOWMOBILE as he gets class relief as well but he likely needs this move. He has enough speed to stalk the early pace as he should be tracking the speed of 4-SWISS GUARD throughout and looking to move forwardly in the lane. 4-SWISS GUARD is fast but is another that drops. He is at his best on the front end and likely is sent away. The question is if he gets headed or not in here as he tends to give when when challenged. 8-LIMA ZULU ran an improved race last out as he chased and never gave way. He's the other that could challenge Swiss Guard early as he figures to battle into the lane.

1-QUICK AND DIRTY has been training well but he’s making only his second start in over two years. His first start back was moved to the main track. Deserves another chance on his preferred surface. 5-SANGFROID just finished second versus similar. That was also his first route race in over a year. Could be better prepared to get the distance today. 8-HOLY STAR might be the best speed. He didn’t show a thing in his only previous turf start but he does sport a good turf pedigree. 

What do you do with 7-BE MY BESTIE? She’s been narrowly losing for $25k and now she’s dropping to $6250. Can’t believe she’ll run but if she does, they might run out of claiming slips. 2-SONG OF AMERICA is another dropper from $25k but her drop might be warranted. She ran for $15k a couple times and couldn’t graduate. Might be able to do it at this level. 5-TWICK OR TWEAT has had some competitive races. Could be the best of the rest.

This isn’t exactly a two-horse race but it comes close. 6-MOMENT has been brilliant this year, winning five of his nine starts. He had a four-race win streak snapped in his last start but he’ll be meeting slightly easier today and with his adoration for this track and possessing the best speed, it seems likely that he’ll start another win streak today. 7=DANVILLE hasn’t been quite as sharp as Moment but he does have a two-race win streak on the line. He’s not as swift as top choice and will be doing his best running late but he’s going to need one of the other rivals in here to soften up Moment to have a realistic chance of betting that foe. It’s a toss up for third but 1-BEEALEA, with no early speed of his own, could pick up the pieces late. 

3-GO MARGIE GO could be tough at first asking. She’s only had three short drills but all were bullets and she only has to run four and a half furlongs. Races for the top barn. Seems ready. 2-SHE CAN SCAT might not be working as fast as top choice but she’s been working well and her works have been longer. If top choice does run out of gas late, this filly seems quite capable of running her down. 4-MOMS CHANNEL isn’t working as well as her stablemate top choice but this might be only a prep. She sports a fantastic turf pedigree. Would imagine her future lies on the weeds. 

8-CHISPARRAJOS finished a distant third in his career debut but he was in a couple tough runners that seem to have bright careers ahead of them. He was well clear of the rest of the field. Could have benefited greatly from that trip. Meets a field comprised of mostly first timers. Could hold a conditioning edge over them. 9-GOOD LIKE MAGIC makes his debut off seeming slow drills but he is racing for one of the top trainers in the country. If they bothered to ship him here for this race, they must think he has potential. Trainer Larry Rivelli has a pair of first timers in here. 7-GIMME THE CANDY seems to have been working the better of the two. 3-GREATNESS, the other Rivelli runner, is an Illinois Richard Ravin homebred with a pedigree that seems destined for turf. 

5-FORWARD CURVE has to be caught. He was favored the last time he raced on turf and did contend for the lead late but tired a bit. That was his first start of the year. Could be better prepared to get the distance in this spot.  1-AVIANO is far from a strong second choice but he’ll finally be back on turf for the first time since October. His recent races on the main track haven’t been great, with a couple exceptions, but his speed figures from his previous grass starts, at tracks like Saratoga and Churchill, suggest that he could be faster than these. 9-GATE CREW should be flying late. He won only one of his 17 turf starts but he also finished second eight times. Should at least get close.  

Not sure what the deal is with 1-SIMPSON BAY. He just broke his maiden in a special weight for $35k and today is running at the $6250 level. How does he lose but how do you bet him? 6-SNOWMOBILE has to be caught. The big drop puts him in the right spot. Since he won both of his races on off tracks, though he got DQ’d from one of them, a spot of rain could help greatly. 4-SWISS GUARD also drops. But his drop makes more sense. He’s had a couple races against better and didn’t do much but he figures to be far tougher in this spot.