Handicapper Tips & Picks

#1 QUICK AND DIRTY has recorded some of the higher OptixFIG in this field and those races over he turf as well. Those numbers stand out on this field and fit here as the horse to beat for Campbell. She was scheduled to return on the grass from the 807-day layoff back on June 20^th and has been entered three times between then and today’s race all races coming off the turf at Mountaineer.

Felix gave #6 TEXAS PRINCESS the same trip (after a SLOG) on June 29^th from the June 4^th return off the layoff. She can improve off both of those efforts returning under similar conditions today with a better ride and allowing her to show the tactical speed she is capable of. #5 SANGFROID was upgraded on June 29^th returning to the turf and ran to it. There was intent to get her back on the TURF this season, and back to the surface she started off her career on back in 2020. Irion also shows up with #2 ONACOUNTA for her debut and tough to knock a “new face” in this field with a solid rider in Colon aboard here. 

The big drop for #7 BE MY BESTIE makes her a clear standout in this field. She already moved up with the class drop shifting to the turf, though coming up short pairing place finishes and B- OptixGRADE, the connections make the move once again and recognize the win should also result in a claim today.

#5 TWICK OR TWEAT caught a class dropper on July 9^th her first start off the claim for Watkins. She also caught herself acting up in the GATE and lost her footing (TROUBLE_S) as the gates opened. A bit more composed in the stall, she could show more early speed today and looks to be intent wheeling right back in two weeks and making a rider change to Arrieta, a rider that has had success for this outfit this season.

The class drop is also in play for #2 SONG OF AMERICA and should assist overall, though as the likely second choice, she does not hold much of an edge over others in here. #1 STRONGENOUGHSTORM has made some progress since she was at this level back in April and with the return to the lower maiden claiming level, looks to be more competitive against today’s group. Her 57 OptixFIG from back on April 27^th sits in line with the current figures for SONG OF AMERICA and should be a big shift in odds on the board between these two. 

Winebaugh will return with the same pair from the June 28^th race including the winner #7 DANVILLE. They will look for the third win in a row and win back at the same level. He is a logical type and tough to knock on current form and what appears to be another favorable race shape for his trip. Stablemate #4 GAME BOY BENNY was an unknown stretching back in distance for the first time in a long time and showed he handled the distance, though was flattered by a softer pace while LONE on the lead and projects to find more early Contention with the Sun and 29 SpeedRate – five of the seven sharing the E/EP RunStyle.

#1 BEEALEA could fly under the radar in this race and holds buried form under similar conditions this meet. He turned in a B- OptixGRADE with an 82 OptixFIG back on April 27^th with a WIDE trip. He did not return to the $13.5k OC condition until June 8^th where once again he turned in a B- OptixGRADE and 81 OptixFIG. 

Rivelli will start a pair in this race and appears the intent with #4 MOMS CHANNEL picking up Centeno and holding a longer series of works than #3 GO MARGIE GO. Both are capable and can look for further signs in the pools and paddock to separate.

#2 SHE CAN SCAT worked a solid 10.2 back in March at OBS and comes into this race with a solid series of works for Winebaugh, a barn capable with debut runners and has sent out live horses all meet.

#1 BIG RED WAVE showed some speed working 11.2 at the Timonium sale back in May. She has worked since and seemed to need more fitness as she was tiring at the end of the drill. Stablemate #8 BECCA BELLE worked a quicker 10.4 though was all out and mechanically not the most efficient mover.  

#5 MISS SAINT is the lone runner in this field with experience and experience she needed first out. She looked green right from the SLOG and the rail draw doing her no favors. She returns here with Hernandez, shift from the inside and the race under her belt.

#6 SWEET SMILA is an IL-bred looking to step up against open company first out. Robertson has solid debut numbers and numbers this season with Felix in the saddle, though typically debuts later in the season and this one has plenty of works to suggest they are race ready. #7 REALISTIC GOAL looks to have some run despite the limited published work tab. Many for Manny have debuted live, though have struggled from the gate breaking slow and something to at the least mention. 

#2 MONEY AGENT earned a follow from his local debut on June 8^th making a positive physical (PRERACE+) in the paddock and showing some run after the SLOG and seemed to be given the start. That “give” could have continued in the Hawthorne Derby, a contentious spot and did not have much of a chance to get into the running as the winner, Act a Fool, controlled the race gate-to-wire. Stablemate #4 WOLF HUNTER is the more established of the pair and could have that edge as an older horses on his side, though overall must show more to get the win at this level.

#3 EVEN THE WIND was given a follow off a near “excuse” on debut at Tampa and has continued to improve race-to-race and on this circuit. The rider change to Esquivel and addition of blinkers suggest intent today. Stablemate #6 COOL AND COLLECTED did not live up to his name on debut as he was RANK and GREEN, a handful from start to finish. He was scheduled to return on June 29^th (Tavares named and sticks with Money Agent) though a vet scratch unable to participate and shows up with another rider named as Colon picks up the mount.

#5 REGIMENTAL has recorded some of the higher figures on the turf and those numbers fit in line with today’s field and OFR. More was expected from him as the favorite on July 6^th, though he did not receive a good trip/TACTIC- racing in TRAFFIC impacting his race and outcome.

#1 INDIO GUAPO physically looks suited to the TURF and returning to the grass today though as far as class that is a different hurdle as he will again be tested here against Special Weight company. Class will also be a test for #8 C V JERSEY BEE making his debut with the outside draw and giving up experience in this field. There has been intent for today’s surface/distance keying off a scratch just weeks ago (7/13) from a similar Special Weight event at Belterra Park. 

#8 CHISPARRAJOS has the edge of the runners with experience earning the higher B- OptixGRADE and 74 OptixFIG. He showed run after the SLOG and behind the top two, Five O’ Somewhere (bet down shipping in from CD) and Ravin’s Town (Rivelli FTS) those top two dueled through the stretch and finished together at the wire.

Bad Cox shows up with his first starter this season in #9 GOOD LIKE MAGIC with Esquivel aboard. This colt has been working consistently at HS Indy where Cox is stabled and there could be some concern as they pick this spot rather than that home base. Some consideration could be given with HS Indy on summer break and this timing working out. Keeping on the HS Indy trend, IN-bred #5 HEDGEHOGINTHEFOG might not be showing his hand off the published works and one that picks this spot for the initial start though ultimately could end up at HS Indy before the end of the year.

Rivelli will return in this spot with a pair as well both on debut and could see #7 GIMME THE CANDY fancied of the pair. He was picked up back in April after working 10 flat and still a bit green at the time. Since the purchase, he worked consistently up through the first part of June though shows a gap from June 11^th until July 5^th.  #3 GIMME A KISS has worked consistently though shorter distances until the recent half-mile moves as he lands here for the debut against open company. 

#1 AVIANO started his career on the turf and returns to the grass for the first time this season in this spot. His form here at Hawthorne has been consistent for Meraz, with both the April and May dirt races competitive and in line with today’s N3L condition.

#3 SPORT PEPPER is another that could find himself back at home on the turf. He broke his maiden first time on the surface at Arlington Park back in 2021 and the only other grass race was the Pulpit Stakes closing out his juvenile season. He has shown progress this year improving with each race and the connections running today first time for a tag looks to have the intent showing up in a spot where he can win.

#4 VERRAZANOINTHESKY takes a different path as he steps back up in class for this event first off the Winebaugh claim. The jump is not as much of a concern as he was competitive for the $25k tag at the N2L condition earlier this meet, nor is the turf with the route distance the biggest unknown making just his second career start today around two turns. 

#1 SIMPSON BAY was impressive to overcome serious adversity to break his maiden on June 14^th. He has been off the 39-days since and the return here in for the $6250k tag comes with reservations – especially with alternatives in the field.

#8 LIMA ZULU has legit early speed and upgraded on Surface/Distance Plot shifting to a Square, the edge over Circles #4 SWISS GUARD (vet scratch at this level on 5/31) and #6 SNOWMOBILE on the class drop.

#7 LAMELO will look to rebound today and make his second start in against winners. He comes into this race on an “every other” speed figure pattern and returning to his top effort puts him back in the mix with others in this field.

#9 FABRICATOR has gone backwards since his maiden win on May 25^th. In those two starts that followed, the front wraps were added and perhaps a change/removal signals a positive sign and something to look for on race day. Tavares remains with Fabricator for this race and opening up the mount for Reyes aboard #5 DASTARDLY DEEDS, one that is moving forward since the freshening coming back on June 14^th.