Handicapper Tips & Picks

There are two runners in this field that have been looking to run on the turf and upgraded in this spot getting to the grass. First time starter #1 GLADYS ALICE being one as she was entered for the turf back on June 14^th at HS Indy and again here on July 6^th both races taken off the turf and at the Special Weight level. #2 BONITA D’ORO was scheduled to debut on the turf back on July of 2022 at Ellis Park and again in August at HS Indy both races taken off the turf before finally getting to the grass in October, a race that closed out a delayed and abbreviated juvenile season.

#6 GETOUTOFMYKITCHEN has been looking to get back to the turf this season and should move up not only with the surface switch but also with the class change back to maiden claiming company. She has experience over the turf going back to September last year at CBY, a race she was expected to perform by the public bet down to 4-1 from the 15-1 morning line that day.

#8 RAIN ATTACK takes a significant step up in class showing up from the $4k maiden claiming race back in June at FanDuel Park, though off her visuals is one that should handle the turf if the other factors are not too much for her in here. The class drop is in play for #7 GOLD OAK and could assist as a little more was expected from her on debut and after showing brief early speed, backed  (NO_KEEP) and was not asked late.

#1 CHICKS FOR FREE returns to Hawthorne and with some subtle class relief (lower purse) exiting the events at FanDuel Park. He has held his form and form that was solid here back in the spring including a BTL, B OptixGRADE effort on April 9^th. He has some tactical speed which is key with today’s 5.5f distance as well as today’s race shape shown on the Plot as a Square tracking off the Quad I runners. As far as the Quad I flight, #7 MUD ISLAND looks to have the edge of that trio, stalking outside #2 TIZRIK and #4 CHOPPER. 

#5 SUMMER BELLE fits as the favorite in this race, she has form at this N2 claiming level and numbers that stack up on par as for the turf. She comes back to the claiming level off the two month layoff (slight knock) upgraded with the X_FLOW trip in allowance company back in May. #1 BIA BOLT RUNNER also returns from the layoff, that time off being the prime knock as she fits otherwise logically in this spot.

#2 IZZY’S MONSTER could land at the right time and place for the slight “upset” in this event. She is a lightly raced three-year-old that could still hold upside and improvement to stack up with the others showing a move forward in her figures today. Going back to her race here on October 15^th, she was given the TURF and ROUTER Keywords, two conditions she has been scheduled to run at, though has yet to have that opportunity and has it here. 

This is a competitive event and both #5 SHACKLEFORD STRONG and #6 TWO WORLDS are capable and proven under similar conditions. Those two could engage early as shown together in Quad I both as Squares (and joined by #1 MEDAL OF FACT and #2 ELIOT NESS) as part of the “Sun” Contention in this longer 6.5f sprint. Both could hold late with that “Square” edge though could set up for a runner stalking that pair.
#4 WEST WARPATH could find that first run trip and could see himself cycling back to a top effort, his race “second off” similar form cycle pattern back on May 18^th with the 86 OptixFIG fits strongly back in today’s conditions. #3 FIRST MASAMUNE is another that could get overlooked and back to the right spot in his form cycle to pick up his first run of the year. He has yet to run at this condition and has been in slightly higher OC $20k conditions at the route distance. The extended sprint distance along with today’s projected dynamic could have him in the right trip. He has a win at the distance back at Arlington Park and holds two in-the-money finishes at today’s distance here at Hawthorne both races with OptixFIG (82,90) in today’s OFR. 

The Block pair stand out in this race as the preferred contenders: #9 I’M BOX OFFICE earned a follow off her races last year at HS Indy – the GREEN debut and WIDE CLOSE (and IMPROVE Projection) in her August season finale. She validated that form returning to break her maiden on June 22^nd impressively earning a B+ OptixGRADE, a GRADE to suggest she can step up in class. #8 I OWE UNCLE MO caught the eye in the paddock making her debut on May 14^th and ran to her looks picking up the win first out. She made a similar physical appearance (PRERACE+) however did not benefit from the right handling (TACTIC-) that had her RANK and off her game and with a subtle trip to move forward off of here.

Tough to see #5 WANDA STRONG holding the role as the favorite here with the Block pair. She won at the N1X statebred allowance level with a softer OFR back on May 31^st and was exposed at this level drifting (NO_LINE) all over the track and doing her best to hold show on June 21^st. Rival #7 KINGSBURY DREAM is more “logical” though trip/pace comes into play for her in this spot with her off-the-pace RunStyle and today’s shorter 7.5f distance than the route races she is coming out of.

Longshot #2 ORNERY ANGEL is softer on class for this level and unproven for the distance, though has some buried turf form in limited grass starts that put her in the mix, even if it is for a minor. Distance also comes into play for #4 VISIONISTA stretching out for the first time, though physically should handle the TURF. She has her work cut out for her in this race taking on winners for the first time and number wise is softer coming back today off a new top, a 70 OptixFIG. 

#1 DERBY DATE looks well-intended for this event as he makes his second start back on the year for Contreras and with strong published works. He exits a contentious $32k claiming event back on June 15^th at Ellis Park, that race run for a $62k purse makes today’s class change more of a lateral move. They have been looking for a similar OC event to run back in, noting a scratch at HS Indy on July 21^st when entered MTO and did not find the surface switch in his favor that day.

#6 LIFE IS HARD can also be upgraded as he makes his second start of this current form cycle and exiting another contentious event at Ellis Park in his most recent race. The fourth place finisher of the July 9^th race, Grey Streak came back to Hawthorne and picked up the win here on the main track on July 26th. In addition to the circuit switch, he will find positive changes in surface/distance cutting back to a sprint (SPRINTER) and shifting back to the main track/DIRT.

Morning line favorite, #2 W W HOTSHOT has run well at this level this season, however, has come up short on the win end. He stayed on as the BOS/Best of the Speed in both the June 14^th and July 13^th races lacking a lead change/NO_LEAD and was drifting in doing best to hold last month. He has legit early speed though should be joined early on by #8 CAN MAN DO and even #2 KHOZAN’S VALENTINE and #5 MALPAIS could be forwardly placed here as well. #4 HELA has two of his three wins when on the lead, though had softer paces in those events than what can be expected here and as a result should fall into a stalking role similar to the July 13^th race. #7 UNCLE HEADLEY will be tested for class and even form as he returns from pairing wins and recording a new top 86 OptixFIG on July 9^th. His RunStyle from off the pace could be suited to today’s race shape for a minor award. 

#1 DRAGON DREW is upgraded finally returning to the turf, a surface he is preferred on and has been unfortunate to get back to since the May 28^th BOS place finish. The inside draw today could force his hand and should see him back on the lead and prominent setting the pace early. Class is a step up for #5 PINBALLER though is another runner in this field that has been looking to get back on the grass all season.

Value should sit with #6 BLAZEN ROAD shipping in from FanDuel and off his most recent running lines and finishing position. From his visuals he should handle the TURF and even move up on the surface. His form coming into this race with the flow-upgrade from June 20^th and progressive OptixFIG in the third start of the cycle suggests he is also sitting on a top effort here. Similar TURF visuals were assigned to #8 OVERTHOUGHT last season and has proven himself on the grass since.

#7 CHANNEL WON finds a lateral change shipping in from Canterbury Park and can be upgraded off a rough start and TROUBLE trip on July 15^th.

#4 GRAND HIDEAWAY has often “snuck away on the board” and might not here returning from a win two weeks ago. He should be able to hold his form and fit a trip, though again should be shorter than the 11-1 last out. Similar value concerns could be in play with #10 ENJOY THE MUSIC (similar Standard Plot position) showing up on this circuit for the first time for Rivelli. #3 EXPROMPT projected to improve returning to the turf on July 20^th even with the distance change. He did step up and finished in a BLANKET, the top six together at the wire.