Handicapper Tips & Picks

The class edge could sit with #1 MYSTIC STORM coming into this race back in for the claiming tag. The drop is less of a concern as the layoff lines coming into this race and noted gap in published works since the May 14^th start up until mid-July. #5 KITTY MACLEAN does not hold any overall edge expect when it comes to pace. She looks to be the quickest to the lead and could present a pace advantage in today’s race shape.

The pace scenario is noted for closers #2 JUDY’S MS. OFFICER and #3 LUCY LOOKIN LEFT, two in form with figures on OFR, however might have too much to do late on the win end.

#4 STORMY EMPIRE will find class relief as well in this spot, though as far as form she gives up recency coming back from the 66-day break and can often “need a race” off a break looking at prior form cycles. She has shown early speed in the past and could be tracking KITTY MACLEAN. Class and numbers are far below for #6 RUNNERS HEAT another that might try to contest the pace early though looks out of her element in this group. 

There was intent for #3 BALADINE going back to the July 13^th race and showed run after missing the break (SLOG) and too much to do late. H will return today with slight class relief, the blinkers back on as well as Mojica in the saddle to suggest intent once again. He should offer value in this race with Brad Cox shipping in #2 BOURBON SPIRIT one that projects to move up on the drop for the live connections, though comes into this race with the pattern of layoff lines and significant class change to suggest a claim is also part of the decision not only placing where they can win.

BOURBON SPIRIT also finds a distance change though the class and tendency for this outfit suggests they should be forwardly placed here and should find pace pressure with the others in the field. #6 GALLANT BUCK being one of those runners coming back from the common race on July 13 and showed early speed PRESSED that day though also had a WARM_UP and that likely played a role in the NO_FINISH. #5 TABLE MONEY also exits that common race and looking to find where he fits. He has the select races with his debut and the maiden win in April that fit today’s par though in the other races lacked any clear excuse and tough to assess consistency. 

#6 HURTS SO BAD is the big class dropper in the field with the others that have been running under similar claiming conditions this season. The drop should move him up on par for this race and consistent with his “every other” win pattern coming into this race. He has enough tactical speed (Quad I Standard Square) to work a trip and the slight edge over similar Surface/Distance Square rival, #1 WILDWOOD SECRET coming back on short rest from the PERFECT trip win 11-days ago. #7 JACK VAN BERG will keep the pace honest as he has legit early speed. He took a tough beat after setting a solid pace getting run down late three weeks ago at Fan Duel Park.

#2 KENNESAW is another making a subtle class change and distance change for this race. Number wise his figures this season are on the lower end, however he has back numbers (OptixFIG 73,76,84 in today’s OFR) from the first part of the meet and back on the main track that make him a contender and could get dismissed off those numbers alone.   

Professional racehorses #4 NYOMAN and #5 Z U SOON are hard knocking types that given the chance with a ride and trip to compete can win, though tend to need those factors in their favor and should be assessed with value on the board. 

This is a fairly competitive race and should present some value in the field as #1 MOVE IT BABY projects to take the bulk of support. She fits as many in this race, though does not hold any overall strong edge to suggest she is the right play at a short price.

#2 SUNSET PAYNTER has shown run despite the running lines and finishing positions. She has not always been placed in the right spot for her abilities and that has impacted the outcome in her races to date. She is a ONE_TURN type and will find some changes coming back today from the July 20^th event. The class drop being he most obvious, though the rider change to suggest a change in tactics is also in play as she was forced to RUSH after TROUBLE_S into a duel and NO_PUSH after losing position. Esquivel taking over today is a strong call and further reason to upgrade.

#4 LADA KALINA could be flying under the radar in this race and especially making her TURF debut. From a physical standpoint she should handle and perhaps even move up on the surface with the TURF Projections recorded earlier this year. She wheels back for this race from the July 29^th Belterra event, a sneaky trip and effort (B- OptixGRADE) finishing in a blanket for minors while in hand and not asked for her best late.

Trip and pace could benefit #6 MAGNA MASSA along with the class DROP returning in this spot with a stalking trip. She is unknown as far as the turf, though to her credit she has been able to transfer her form and figures from track to track as well as some off-track surfaces along the way. Her form stacks up here with the much needed class relief and some of her buried form including a BTL effort here back in April.

The lightly raced runners in this field present overall upside and upgraded as the “new faces” though will give up recency to many in this field that are tougher to support on the win end based on their races this season in maiden company.

#6 SAWYER FOX coming back from the Futurity stakes last December for a belated second start for Catalano should find themselves favored here especially with the strong published works. Visually he showed some run making a MOVE though was not on the level (DROP) of the others in that race at the time. Though has been given the chance to mature and seems well-intended in this event and Mojica in the saddle.

#2 EL MUCHO made his first two starts in statebred stakes company before taking on open Special Weight late last year. He returns today with a steady work tab for Rodriguez and his first start here in statebred Special Weight company with upside from those juvenile figures. The recent gap in published works for #3 LONE RETURN being the main knock on the “other new face” making his debut here today.

#7 GUN RUSH has been the star of the meet. He has been so consistent and earned each win, a five race win streak coming into this spot. He again must “earn it” as he catches a competitive group and unlike the LONE lead (benefit from scratches) on July 12^th, he projects to take pace pressure or at least stalk/press outside a contested pace given the draw and speed to his inside.

His biggest threat could come from #6 SOUL COAXING returning from the 45-day freshening and is a “fresh” horse. Class wise he will also be tested at today’s condition and must improve off the C+ OptixGRADE efforts from back in May/June to win today. With that said, he was racing against arguably the tougher horses than others in this field with a slightly higher OFR in those events this season as well and going back almost a year to the Canterbury race last September. 

The finale is not just that but also the High-5 carryover of $185k with the mandatory payout today. Handicapping for that type of wager is often different than picking the five “best” horses as pace, trip can determine those underneath spots. Finding some horses to key and others to toss can help clean up the “noise” and assist in structuring a bet.

#8 OUT OF DEDUCTIONS returns from the Hawthorne Derby with upside from the TACTIC- along with the WIDE trip and race dynamic behind front running winner, Act a Fool. They will return here with Lasix and blinkers, the equipment combination scoring the dominant maiden win on May 21^st.

#2 STAR NATION returns to the turf and another with a solid effort making a WIDE MOVE in that May 28^th common race. He has moved forward in the two starts that followed with a similar showing making a late CLOSE and solid GALLOP+ out. #10 RUSSIAN HAMMER turned in a BTL effort in N1X OC company back on May 28^th before getting pitched in the Hawthorne Derby and saw a rebound on July 16^th with a TROUBLE trip and CLOSE.

Many tickets will look to key the “logical” #6 SIMPLE LOGIC as ironic of a name for this analysis. SIMPLE LOGIC (Block trained and stablemate OUT OF DEDUCTIONS) makes the most sense in this race to hit the board given his current form and connections back under similar conditions where he has been competitive this year. Those factors will have him as the key for many tickets (and likely to be included on mine) though trying to play more creatively keying the other runners in the rare instance he runs out.

In addition to RUSSIAN HAMMER, Perez will send out #1 MODIFIER, one that is lighter on class to support in the top spots though isolating his races on the turf and keying of the June 4^th C+ OptixGRADE earned under similar N1X allowance conditions can get himself into the mix. #4 BAKENEKO should improve with the shift back to the turf and with a similar RunStyle and form to #3 VITALE, is likely to be the higher of the two odds wise. #9 COMING UP ACES is lighter on numbers to be a top tier contender, though has enough form and form coming into this race on the turf to run on for the underneath spots. 

Not a ton of pace in this spot as I gave the nod to 5-KITTY MACLEAN in here. She runs for the Granitz barn, who has been solid with every horse they have shipped in. She ran a good second last out and will take action once again. 2-JUDY'S MS. OFFICER figures to rate and look to run on late. She was a good winner two back and ran well just behind Kitty Maclean last out. If the pace is contested, it will benefit her in the end. 4-SOTRMY EMPIRE has done her best running over this track. She figures to settle mid-pack early but her recent drills off the layoff show she could be ready for a big effort.

Hard to determine what to do with Bourbon Spirit as this one takes the plunge for trainer Brad Cox. I'll look for the upset and go with 6-GALLANT BUCK as he figures to show speed and contend the entire way. He gets some class relief into here and may be able to shake loose and never look back. 3-BALADINE could be in a tracking spot behind the leader as he looks to chase the entire way. He comes out of a race against tougher as well and figures to take his share of action. 2-BOURBON SPIRIT is the question mark as he ships in for Cox. He had an excellent start to his career before tailing off in his last couple. His most recent race wasn't terrible though but this is quite the plunge into today's race.

An extremely tough race for this level as the are so many classy runners in here. 11yo 4-NYOMAN has won 22 times on his career and 12 times over this track. He has some tactical speed and has been great at six furlongs. 5-Z U SOON ran a nice race last out as he closed well from the outside. He's another that has run well at Hawthorne and should get ample pace to chase. 3-D'ARCHER is one of those with speed who grabbed a pair of wins earlier in the meet. Trainer Vance Childers has had a good last week and this one has been a great fit with Santiago in the saddle.

Weather will dictate if we are on or off the grass. If on turf, the price on 6-MAGNA MASSA will be better, but even if off the grass, the horse merits a look. She has faced so much tougher in recent starts as the big class plunge makes her a major factor. 2-SUNSET PAYNTER likely needs the turf as her figures on grass are stronger. She has some tactical speed and could tuck in right behind what looks to be a contested pace. 1-MOVE IT BABY welcomes the return back to turf as she figures to wing it from the inside. Let's see if she has company in here.

Hard to determine what to do off one career start, but 6-SAWYER FOX could be ready off the bench in here. He debuted in stakes-company last December and showed some early foot before tiring. He has since has some time off to mature and comes in with a pair of bullet drills at Keeneland. Expect a big return effort. 4-GOD GUNS N GUTS has run a pair of solid races and should be rating close early.   He didn't face the toughest of company in his last though but still posted a decent figure for a barn having a solid meet. 1-J J'S SOLUTION is overdue for the maiden score but has run races good enough to win. He tends to rate and rally on the dirt but gets a strong finisher in Lezcano in the saddle.

An incredibly tough race as any in here have a chance. 6-SOUL COAXING has been competitive at this level in the pace and has enough tactical speed to rate close early while the pacesetters battle on the lead. The 1st and 2nd place finishers of his last start both came back to win their next races as he may be sitting on a big race while at a good price. 7-GUN RUSH looks for his sixth victory in a row as he has speed but may have company upfront. Let's see if he looks to clear or chooses to rate today. 5-JEFF THE LION will hope the Gun Rush and Moment push things along upfront as he figures to settle and close in the lane. Let's see how he handles the class hike today.

Not in love with 5-KITTY MACLEAN, especially because two of her best three races came on off tracks, but she does look like the only real speed in this race and there is a chance of rain so the track could be “off” once again.  2-JUDY’S MS OFFICER finished behind top choice in last but she was making up ground late in that shorter race. The extra distance could work in her favor but the lack of much pace could work against her. 4-STORMY EMPIRE drops from allowance company. She’s been meeting some salty competition but don’t like the way she’s been running out of gas in her recent races. But the drop could do her a world of good.

What’s the deal with 2-BOURBON SPIRIT? He easily won his debut at Ellis last year and then shipped to Monmouth, where he finished second in the Sapling. After a six-week layoff he was shipped back to Kentucky where he lost an allowance by 39 lengths. Nine months later he returned to racing, only to finish last in another allowance, this time in Indiana. Now he ships here and drops into claiming company and turns back in distance. Have to respect the connections but there are too many unknowns to really like this runner. 3-BALADINE could easily be the best of these. Not sure he could beat top pick if that runner was 100% but too many things seem to point to that gelding being vulnerable. He’s dropping in class one more time. It could be enough. 6-GALLANT BUCK seems quicker than the rest. He hasn’t been able to carry his speed the distance lately but the drop in claiming price could enhance his chances. 

Wonder if 4-NYOMAN can do it again. This venerable old timer (he’s 11) seldom runs a bad race but the pace of this race could be the ideal setup for his late run. 6-HURTS SO BAD seems like he could outclass this group but there is a reason that he’s dropping after winning and racing well at higher levels. As it is, he’s going to have to fight off plenty of other early speed. 3-D’ARCHER threw in a clunker in last after a streak where he had two wins and two narrow losses in four starts. He was in deep in last, however, and the drop in price has him back in the right spot. 

This is the kind of race where I would like to find a runner that will come from off the pace but I’m stumped. All in here seem to want the lead though some aren’t quick enough to get it. So, I’ll stick with 1-MOVE IT BABY. She has more turf experience than most and she even graduated on the surface. 6-MAGNA MASSA makes her turf debut. She’s more of an even runner than the rest and that just might allow her to come on late if the rest of the field decides to fight it out on the lead. 2-SUNSET PAYNTER didn’t show a lot in her two turf attempts but she was probably meeting better rivals.

6-SAWYER FOX didn’t show much in his debut but he ran in the Futurity here last December. Meets much easier here. He’s been popping some super sharp drills at Keeneland in preparation for his 2023 debut. Guessing he’ll be far tougher this time out. 4-GOD GUNS N GUTS is the main competition. He’s making the third start of his career. He just finished second in open company and had to chase the lone speed to do it. It could be his turn to lead throughout. 1-J J’S SOLUTION is back to state breds. He’s had plenty of starts (23) but like the fact that he’s turning back in distance and going from turf to dirt. Could finish fastest of all.

Great race! Have to stick with 7-GUN RUSH, however. He’s riding a five-race win streak. He hasn’t been facing the toughest fields and he hasn’t been generating the highest speed figures but it seems that he forgot how to lose. 1-BOCA BOY might be the quickest of these and he does own the highest recent “figs”. He’s been a sprinter for the last two years but he did win a two-turn $400k restricted stakes race as a 2yo and even ran in the Tampa Derby at three. He’s going to get to the lead. They’ll have to try to catch him. 4-COALMINER’S KITTEN might turn out to be the best closer in the field. He was a longshot winner in his local debut in a race that was moved to the main track. He’ll be a longshot again today with a far livelier pace ahead of him.

8-OUT OF DEDUCTIONS is a 3yo taking on older and he’s really lightly raced. However, he was a monster maiden winner in his second start and he was favored, though he had little change against the lone speed, in the Hawthorne Derby. He’s had three good drills since his third-place finish in the derby. Could be ready for these. By every right, 6-SIMPLE LOGIC should win this race. Stablemate of top choice will likely be favored to win the race. However, he seems to have a case of seconditis. He finished second in all three races this year and in eight of his 21 career starts, while only winning twice. He’s sure to be racing right off the early leaders and he might put the rest away but he could easily wind up in his usual position. Recently claimed 3-VITALE jumps in class for this race but he has always done well on turf and he was claimed by a barn that has been having great success with those they have claimed. He’s a versatile runner but it’s his speed, especially with Felix in the irons, that makes him a danger in this spot.