Handicapper Tips & Picks

The class edge could sit with #1 MYSTIC STORM coming into this race back in for the claiming tag. The drop is less of a concern as the layoff lines coming into this race and noted gap in published works since the May 14^th start up until mid-July. #5 KITTY MACLEAN does not hold any overall edge expect when it comes to pace. She looks to be the quickest to the lead and could present a pace advantage in today’s race shape.

The pace scenario is noted for closers #2 JUDY’S MS. OFFICER and #3 LUCY LOOKIN LEFT, two in form with figures on OFR, however might have too much to do late on the win end.

#4 STORMY EMPIRE will find class relief as well in this spot, though as far as form she gives up recency coming back from the 66-day break and can often “need a race” off a break looking at prior form cycles. She has shown early speed in the past and could be tracking KITTY MACLEAN. Class and numbers are far below for #6 RUNNERS HEAT another that might try to contest the pace early though looks out of her element in this group. 

There was intent for #3 BALADINE going back to the July 13^th race and showed run after missing the break (SLOG) and too much to do late. H will return today with slight class relief, the blinkers back on as well as Mojica in the saddle to suggest intent once again. He should offer value in this race with Brad Cox shipping in #2 BOURBON SPIRIT one that projects to move up on the drop for the live connections, though comes into this race with the pattern of layoff lines and significant class change to suggest a claim is also part of the decision not only placing where they can win.

BOURBON SPIRIT also finds a distance change though the class and tendency for this outfit suggests they should be forwardly placed here and should find pace pressure with the others in the field. #6 GALLANT BUCK being one of those runners coming back from the common race on July 13 and showed early speed PRESSED that day though also had a WARM_UP and that likely played a role in the NO_FINISH. #5 TABLE MONEY also exits that common race and looking to find where he fits. He has the select races with his debut and the maiden win in April that fit today’s par though in the other races lacked any clear excuse and tough to assess consistency. 

#6 HURTS SO BAD is the big class dropper in the field with the others that have been running under similar claiming conditions this season. The drop should move him up on par for this race and consistent with his “every other” win pattern coming into this race. He has enough tactical speed (Quad I Standard Square) to work a trip and the slight edge over similar Surface/Distance Square rival, #1 WILDWOOD SECRET coming back on short rest from the PERFECT trip win 11-days ago. #7 JACK VAN BERG will keep the pace honest as he has legit early speed. He took a tough beat after setting a solid pace getting run down late three weeks ago at Fan Duel Park.

#2 KENNESAW is another making a subtle class change and distance change for this race. Number wise his figures this season are on the lower end, however he has back numbers (OptixFIG 73,76,84 in today’s OFR) from the first part of the meet and back on the main track that make him a contender and could get dismissed off those numbers alone.   

Professional racehorses #4 NYOMAN and #5 Z U SOON are hard knocking types that given the chance with a ride and trip to compete can win, though tend to need those factors in their favor and should be assessed with value on the board. 

This is a fairly competitive race and should present some value in the field as #1 MOVE IT BABY projects to take the bulk of support. She fits as many in this race, though does not hold any overall strong edge to suggest she is the right play at a short price.

#2 SUNSET PAYNTER has shown run despite the running lines and finishing positions. She has not always been placed in the right spot for her abilities and that has impacted the outcome in her races to date. She is a ONE_TURN type and will find some changes coming back today from the July 20^th event. The class drop being he most obvious, though the rider change to suggest a change in tactics is also in play as she was forced to RUSH after TROUBLE_S into a duel and NO_PUSH after losing position. Esquivel taking over today is a strong call and further reason to upgrade.

#4 LADA KALINA could be flying under the radar in this race and especially making her TURF debut. From a physical standpoint she should handle and perhaps even move up on the surface with the TURF Projections recorded earlier this year. She wheels back for this race from the July 29^th Belterra event, a sneaky trip and effort (B- OptixGRADE) finishing in a blanket for minors while in hand and not asked for her best late.

Trip and pace could benefit #6 MAGNA MASSA along with the class DROP returning in this spot with a stalking trip. She is unknown as far as the turf, though to her credit she has been able to transfer her form and figures from track to track as well as some off-track surfaces along the way. Her form stacks up here with the much needed class relief and some of her buried form including a BTL effort here back in April.

The lightly raced runners in this field present overall upside and upgraded as the “new faces” though will give up recency to many in this field that are tougher to support on the win end based on their races this season in maiden company.

#6 SAWYER FOX coming back from the Futurity stakes last December for a belated second start for Catalano should find themselves favored here especially with the strong published works. Visually he showed some run making a MOVE though was not on the level (DROP) of the others in that race at the time. Though has been given the chance to mature and seems well-intended in this event and Mojica in the saddle.

#2 EL MUCHO made his first two starts in statebred stakes company before taking on open Special Weight late last year. He returns today with a steady work tab for Rodriguez and his first start here in statebred Special Weight company with upside from those juvenile figures. The recent gap in published works for #3 LONE RETURN being the main knock on the “other new face” making his debut here today.

#7 GUN RUSH has been the star of the meet. He has been so consistent and earned each win, a five race win streak coming into this spot. He again must “earn it” as he catches a competitive group and unlike the LONE lead (benefit from scratches) on July 12^th, he projects to take pace pressure or at least stalk/press outside a contested pace given the draw and speed to his inside.

His biggest threat could come from #6 SOUL COAXING returning from the 45-day freshening and is a “fresh” horse. Class wise he will also be tested at today’s condition and must improve off the C+ OptixGRADE efforts from back in May/June to win today. With that said, he was racing against arguably the tougher horses than others in this field with a slightly higher OFR in those events this season as well and going back almost a year to the Canterbury race last September. 

The finale is not just that but also the High-5 carryover of $185k with the mandatory payout today. Handicapping for that type of wager is often different than picking the five “best” horses as pace, trip can determine those underneath spots. Finding some horses to key and others to toss can help clean up the “noise” and assist in structuring a bet.

#8 OUT OF DEDUCTIONS returns from the Hawthorne Derby with upside from the TACTIC- along with the WIDE trip and race dynamic behind front running winner, Act a Fool. They will return here with Lasix and blinkers, the equipment combination scoring the dominant maiden win on May 21^st.

#2 STAR NATION returns to the turf and another with a solid effort making a WIDE MOVE in that May 28^th common race. He has moved forward in the two starts that followed with a similar showing making a late CLOSE and solid GALLOP+ out. #10 RUSSIAN HAMMER turned in a BTL effort in N1X OC company back on May 28^th before getting pitched in the Hawthorne Derby and saw a rebound on July 16^th with a TROUBLE trip and CLOSE.

Many tickets will look to key the “logical” #6 SIMPLE LOGIC as ironic of a name for this analysis. SIMPLE LOGIC (Block trained and stablemate OUT OF DEDUCTIONS) makes the most sense in this race to hit the board given his current form and connections back under similar conditions where he has been competitive this year. Those factors will have him as the key for many tickets (and likely to be included on mine) though trying to play more creatively keying the other runners in the rare instance he runs out.

In addition to RUSSIAN HAMMER, Perez will send out #1 MODIFIER, one that is lighter on class to support in the top spots though isolating his races on the turf and keying of the June 4^th C+ OptixGRADE earned under similar N1X allowance conditions can get himself into the mix. #4 BAKENEKO should improve with the shift back to the turf and with a similar RunStyle and form to #3 VITALE, is likely to be the higher of the two odds wise. #9 COMING UP ACES is lighter on numbers to be a top tier contender, though has enough form and form coming into this race on the turf to run on for the underneath spots.