Handicapper Tips & Picks

Not in love with 5-KITTY MACLEAN, especially because two of her best three races came on off tracks, but she does look like the only real speed in this race and there is a chance of rain so the track could be “off” once again.  2-JUDY’S MS OFFICER finished behind top choice in last but she was making up ground late in that shorter race. The extra distance could work in her favor but the lack of much pace could work against her. 4-STORMY EMPIRE drops from allowance company. She’s been meeting some salty competition but don’t like the way she’s been running out of gas in her recent races. But the drop could do her a world of good.

What’s the deal with 2-BOURBON SPIRIT? He easily won his debut at Ellis last year and then shipped to Monmouth, where he finished second in the Sapling. After a six-week layoff he was shipped back to Kentucky where he lost an allowance by 39 lengths. Nine months later he returned to racing, only to finish last in another allowance, this time in Indiana. Now he ships here and drops into claiming company and turns back in distance. Have to respect the connections but there are too many unknowns to really like this runner. 3-BALADINE could easily be the best of these. Not sure he could beat top pick if that runner was 100% but too many things seem to point to that gelding being vulnerable. He’s dropping in class one more time. It could be enough. 6-GALLANT BUCK seems quicker than the rest. He hasn’t been able to carry his speed the distance lately but the drop in claiming price could enhance his chances. 

Wonder if 4-NYOMAN can do it again. This venerable old timer (he’s 11) seldom runs a bad race but the pace of this race could be the ideal setup for his late run. 6-HURTS SO BAD seems like he could outclass this group but there is a reason that he’s dropping after winning and racing well at higher levels. As it is, he’s going to have to fight off plenty of other early speed. 3-D’ARCHER threw in a clunker in last after a streak where he had two wins and two narrow losses in four starts. He was in deep in last, however, and the drop in price has him back in the right spot. 

This is the kind of race where I would like to find a runner that will come from off the pace but I’m stumped. All in here seem to want the lead though some aren’t quick enough to get it. So, I’ll stick with 1-MOVE IT BABY. She has more turf experience than most and she even graduated on the surface. 6-MAGNA MASSA makes her turf debut. She’s more of an even runner than the rest and that just might allow her to come on late if the rest of the field decides to fight it out on the lead. 2-SUNSET PAYNTER didn’t show a lot in her two turf attempts but she was probably meeting better rivals.

6-SAWYER FOX didn’t show much in his debut but he ran in the Futurity here last December. Meets much easier here. He’s been popping some super sharp drills at Keeneland in preparation for his 2023 debut. Guessing he’ll be far tougher this time out. 4-GOD GUNS N GUTS is the main competition. He’s making the third start of his career. He just finished second in open company and had to chase the lone speed to do it. It could be his turn to lead throughout. 1-J J’S SOLUTION is back to state breds. He’s had plenty of starts (23) but like the fact that he’s turning back in distance and going from turf to dirt. Could finish fastest of all.

Great race! Have to stick with 7-GUN RUSH, however. He’s riding a five-race win streak. He hasn’t been facing the toughest fields and he hasn’t been generating the highest speed figures but it seems that he forgot how to lose. 1-BOCA BOY might be the quickest of these and he does own the highest recent “figs”. He’s been a sprinter for the last two years but he did win a two-turn $400k restricted stakes race as a 2yo and even ran in the Tampa Derby at three. He’s going to get to the lead. They’ll have to try to catch him. 4-COALMINER’S KITTEN might turn out to be the best closer in the field. He was a longshot winner in his local debut in a race that was moved to the main track. He’ll be a longshot again today with a far livelier pace ahead of him.

8-OUT OF DEDUCTIONS is a 3yo taking on older and he’s really lightly raced. However, he was a monster maiden winner in his second start and he was favored, though he had little change against the lone speed, in the Hawthorne Derby. He’s had three good drills since his third-place finish in the derby. Could be ready for these. By every right, 6-SIMPLE LOGIC should win this race. Stablemate of top choice will likely be favored to win the race. However, he seems to have a case of seconditis. He finished second in all three races this year and in eight of his 21 career starts, while only winning twice. He’s sure to be racing right off the early leaders and he might put the rest away but he could easily wind up in his usual position. Recently claimed 3-VITALE jumps in class for this race but he has always done well on turf and he was claimed by a barn that has been having great success with those they have claimed. He’s a versatile runner but it’s his speed, especially with Felix in the irons, that makes him a danger in this spot.