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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Wed August 9th, 2023

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Ron's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:30 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
3 Maria's Gift - 5/2 1 Ghaaleb's Dreams - 9/5 2 C C's World - 6/1

3-MARIA’S GIFT beat all but one in last when dropped to this level for the first time. In that race, she beat all but two members of this field and those two members didn’t run in that race. She’s not a standout but beat most of this crew once and might be able to do it again. 1-GHAALEB’S DREAMS also dropped to this level for last and showed some improvement but still finished a couple lengths behind Marie’s Gift. Takes blinkers off today. Maybe that will make a difference. 2-C C’S WORLD has been alternating good and bad races. She finished up the track in last but did win her previous start. Not sure there will be enough pace to set up for her late run but there might be.

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 2:57 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
6 Monsteronthemidway - 3/1 10 Lawmaker - 4/1 4 Kingsburry Attack - 9/2

6-MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY has steadily improved. Graduate in last might be taking on winners for the first time but his improving form against what appears to be a weak field could carry the day. 10-LAWMAKER has had seven turf races and ran well in most of them. With good natural speed he figures to be on or close to the pace from the start. He beat top choice three races back. Might be able to do it again. 4-KINGSBURRY ATTACK has to be considered, if not to win at least in the vertical gimmicks. He has finished in the money in six of his 11 turf starts, though four of those finishes were for third place.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:24 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
3 Unglued - 9/2 1 Holy Star - 2/1 2 Evie Jean - 5/2

Not in love with any in here but think 3-UNGLUED is the quickest and that just might be enough. 1-HOLY STAR turns back in distance. He’s been displaying decent route speed lately and has been carrying his speed most of the way around. Could outlast the rest. 2-EVIE JEAN is certainly a threat. She finished third in six of 11 races this year. However, she’s making her 26th start as a maiden. Can’t get excited about her chances.

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 3:51 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
1 Rivzonaroll - 9/5 2 Rocket Hotshot - 7/2 3 Uncle Nick - 8/1

1-RIVZONAROLL drops. Likely pacesetter has been fading against better rivals but he seems lengths quicker out of the gate and at this level, he should be able to hold off any early challengers while holding something in reserve for the finish. 2-ROCKET HOTSHOT drops sharply. He hasn’t been in the best of form recently but his speed figures in the not-too-distant past suggests he’s one of the fastest members of this field. Big improvement expected with the drop. 3-UNCLE NICK could face the same issue he had in last, running down the lone dropping speed, but he did make the race interesting in last with a late surge to finish second.  It’s remotely possible that a speed duel will develop, giving him a much better chance to surprise late. 

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 4:18 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
2 Gold Buckle - 10/1 6 Midnight Blue Note - 5/2 5 Camargo - 4/1

2-GOLD BUCKLE hasn’t beaten many lately but he’s dropping out of starter company and dropping to the lowest level of his career. Have to expect considerable improvement at this level. 6-MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE seems most likely. However, he does like the lead and although he’s been able to sustain his speed under pressure, there appears to be a lot of speed to outlast. 5-CAMARGO could turn out to be the best of the speed. He threw in a clunker in last but won his previous two starts. Plus, he’s two for two on off tracks and the weatherman suggests rain is a possibility.

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 4:45 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
9 Belperron - 7/2 5 Tar Heel Girl - 5/2 7 Rare Action Attack - 5/1 6 She's Wandaful - 10/1

Interesting race. Many of these runners will finish fast but think there’s a good chance that 9-BELPERRON will get a fairly easy lead which could enable her to hold off those that try to overtake her late. Well-bred filly tired a bit late in last but she was making her first start of the year and she still managed to hold on for a narrow loss, losing only by a head. Could prove much tougher to catch today. 5-TAR HEEL GIRL, 7-RARE ACTION ATTACK and 6-SHE’S WANDAFUL are all likely to finish with a ton of run.

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 5:12 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
2 Cortese - 6/1 8 Twirling Roses - 9/2 5 Plausible Denile - 3/1

2-CORTESE needed last. He was making his first start of the year. Plus, there’s a chance that he bled since he’ll be running with first Lasix today. He could be the quickest of these and he’ll go off at an attractive price. Not sure that 8-TWIRLING ROSES is back in form but his last race was arguably his best race of the year. Would imagine that he’ll be tracking the early pace and can finish with a flourish. 5-PLAUSIBLE DENILE went off as the even money favorite in his local debut but only raced evenly and finished third. However, he was making his first start on this track and did have a couple traffic “incidents” that could have slowed him down. Deserves another chance.

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 5:39 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
10 Clear N Convincing - 4/1 5 Driven One - 7/2 3 Son of Grace - 6/1 1 Command Central - 9/2

Wide-open race. There is an abundance of speed so I’m looking for a late runner. Landed on 10-CLEAR AND CONVINCING. He barely lost last at this level, while making his first start of the year, and the winner of that race went on to win his next start. This runner gets a red-hot apprentice as pilot and an extra sixteenth mile to work with. Can fly by. 5-DRIVEN ONE, like top pick, finished second to Fly Nightly in last. He dueled for the lead throughout and came up just a half length short. Although he got claimed from that start, the claim was voided and he gets to run back for the same connections and at the same condition. Can take them this time. 3-SON OF GRACE might be ignored but he’s more than capable of surprising. In his last three turf claimers, he has two wins and a fourth, though less than a length back in a blanket photo. Don’t leave him out of the gimmicks. 1-COMMAND CENTRAL has speed and tenacity. He was narrowly beaten in a $20k turf claimer in last after wiring an allowance field in a turf allowance in his prior start.