Handicapper Tips & Picks

With the “Fire” Contention and higher 72 SpeedRate, the pace should be honest and require finishing ability (Square) with this dynamic. #6 GOOD MONGOLIA sits as a Quad IV Square and should find the right set up required for a closer. #5 JUJU’S SPECIALGIRL has the edge of the Quad I group positioned in Quad I/II tracking as a Square. With that said, her current form is not as strong as it has been and noted as that form is paired with the significant drop.

#1 PALACE MAGIC is unknown when it comes to the surface switch, though she has form at today’s condition keying off some races back in the first part of the meet, both competitive B- OptixGRADE efforts and could show up with intent here first off the claim (following an OC $13.5k vet scratch on 8/13) with Esquivel aboard. The surface switch to TURF should suit #4 AWESOME SUNDAY making her first start on the surface, however, has the pace challenge as part of the Quad I (Circle) Contention. 

#3 VERRAZANOINTHESKY wheels right back and looking for back-to-back wins for Winebaugh. He will drop in class off the win, though with the meet starting to wind down the move is less of a concern, especially with a live rider picks up the call. He rallied from off the pace (TRAFFIC, CLOSE) though noted with the SLOG and with a clean break can rate closer to the pace.

As far as the early pace, #5 OVERTHOUGHT with Giles back aboard should send early and will look to clear and try to take the field gate-to-wire, the tactic used back on July 20^th and for the win in May. #6 MISTER CHARMING draws well to his outside and should be pressing/stalking that rival with the class and form edge to sit the trip and have first run. #4 BIG BLUE holds a similar run style though visually has left something to be desired in his more recent races and tougher to support with a turnaround needed.

#1 GAGOOTS and #2 NOT VERY GENTLE come into this race holding their form and competitive B- OptixGRADE races at this level. They will be required to show more in order to win today and both require a trip as they can often break “SLOG” and tend to sit back and make one run.  

Joel Campbell legs up the apprentice rider Weatherly coming back with #2 SUNDAY MISCHIEF and looking for any edge on this runner to try and carry their speed. He is quicker to the first call then the others in this field and while finishing ability has been the hurdle, they could get clear and with the intent today for this third start off the layoff.

#4 FABRICATOR is preferred of the Watkins pair in this race. He could sit a better trip than #1 UNCAPTURED DREAM drawn on the rail and has the edge with experience at this level and coming off a solid effort under similar conditions making a WIDE MOVE in the place finish last month.

#6 ALEXIS N NIKO is the new face making their first start on this circuit and back from the 134-day layoff. Now in the Rivelli barn, he will likely gain support from the public on name recognition alone. As an individual, he fits at this level on numbers with today’s rivals and subtle class relief from some of the N2L races out in Florida. He has been here on the grounds training all throughout July and with Mojica aboard should be plenty fit and race ready, though he must still navigate a trip and top effort as things to consider when factoring value. 

This is a solid group of allowance sophomore fillies and a competitive group as they sit tight number wise without much separation going through the field. That could side with the lightly raced types that still present a move forward and upside over others that have form and experience under similar race day conditions. #5 MOMENT TO SHINE could step up here fitting that profile and one that recorded her strongest number, a 78 OptixFIG in her debut last November at CD, still as a juvenile and that race her lone start on the main track.

#4 IT’S MAGIC must step up number wise pairing similar 72-73 OptixFIG in the two starts to date. Outside of the number, she was upgraded off her debut showing run after the SLOG behind a front running winner against the Ellis profile and again upgraded with the TROUBLE_S, TROUBLE in running and making a CLOSE into an average pace to break her maiden.

#1 LURE’EM IN overall holds some upside off her races this season, though the rail draw could be a bigger hurdle than the surface switch as she must work a trip from the inside and requires tactical speed to compete here.  She does not “need the lead” and would be unlikely to get out in front of #2 SWEET NELLIE and #3 WILMA MANKILLER two runners that should be committed to the lead. #6 QUILTER also projects to be forwardly placed keying off her races where she has been most successful. With that said, in those races she was able to stalk “slower” early fractions and that does not project to be the case today. In addition, she faces a tougher group than the statebred conditions and similar class to the turf field back in June when she was compromised with the draw and X_WIDE trip. 

Watkins looks to have intent showing up with a pair of runners. #4 CINDY’S G MAN returns to Hawthorne and with a freshening for this race. He has legit early speed and solid front running form with Felix, the rider taking back over today. Stablemate #2 TIME HEIST fits at this level, though can be his own worst enemy with the pattern of gate issues that can often result in a “trip” and settling for a minor. Like Felix aboard CINDY’S G MAN, Centeno has a solid record on TIME HEIST and remains aboard today.

As far as pace, CINDY’S G MAN does not expect to be alone on the lead though is drawn inside the other pace horses, #7 HURTS SO BAD (entered at this level and vet scratch on 8/6) and #8 GINSBURNED, on that will come off a dominant B+ win and 47-day freshening to run for the $5k tag on this circuit, throwing some mixed signals with that move.

The class drop should move up #5 SONNYISNOTSOFUNNY as he was flattered with the minor finishes earlier this season in allowance company though over the four races at the level and average effort last month in for $20k, the connections bring him back to a level where he has run competitively in the past. The competitive form at the level is tough to discount on #6 BORN AGAIN GEORGE, a horse that hit the wire first albeit riderless on May 11^th and showed that was no fluke and could repeat with weight in the saddle in his next three starts.

#1 DRAMATIC KITTEN is a “wild card” in this race though can be upgraded with intent as he makes his second start off the claim, form cycle and seemed to be “given” the race running for the $20k tag on August 3^rd, a race condition high above his current abilities.

Without much route form, #3 RISKY BOY did not seem to hold intent and the connections taking a shot to try something new. They will return to the sprint distance as well as the restricted $5k claiming level, conditions where they were more competitive earlier this season and should be able to return to that form here. 

The surface switch to the turf is a bit unknown for #3 MILLARD’S SMILE though he has other handicapping factors in play to see him competitive in this spot. As far as class, this restricted $20k level is one where he has been competitive on this circuit, he paired place finishes (B- OptixGRADE) last November and similar form earlier this early with 80-84 OptixFIG, number above today’s OFR. As far as class, he has required the DROP and holds upside wheeling back from the August 6^th race, taking the worst of the contact at the start, TROUBLES+ and near excuse all things considered on the day.

Assuming MILLARD’S SMILE can transfer his form to the turf, he should be able to sit the right trip. The primary pace factors are drawn outside in #9 SLAVA UKRANI and #10 FORWARD CURVE. Both runners can be tough in here on the front end, though have been more effective holding their speed under Slow/Very Slow early paced race. #8 EL RAYO was able to benefit from the right ride and trip saving ground on July 23^rd, at the 42-1 overlay. Number wise he must improve similarly to others in this field.

#5 GATE CREW has struggled to find and hold his top form as of late, though is given another look today as he could be overlooked on the board and coming off a WIDE trip last month, something he could avoid today with the rider and post position change.

Perez will return with a pair in this race with the quick turnaround in play for #1 MODIFIER. He comes back from the Sunday finale last week, a solid showing with a subtle trip and class relief back to the claiming condition. Stablemate #6 STORM’S REFLECTION finds the opposite shift in class as he will step up off the win last month. 

Starting the analysis with the second time starters: #1 ADIOS COOL ARROWS and #7 GIMME THE CANDY both visually presented some class weakness (DROP) though clearly GIMME THE CANDY has the edge of that pair. Class and overall ability is still unknown for #4 HEDGEHOGINTHEFOG taking a lot of contact at the start (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) and raced well off the pace after. It is encouraging to see Perez return them to the gate following the debut and recording a half-mile drill on August 5^th.

Robertson is known to debut juvenile runners later in the season/meet and the timing here in play for #2 EXCITABLE BOY as he is preferred of the first time starters. He appears well meant first out and with a steady work tag and recent solid half-mile move in 48 flat from the gate. 

#7 VIOLA made a strong impression at the OBS sale last April (20.2) and will make her belated debut in this spot. She was in training here last year and noted gaps in the works before coming back on the published work tab in June. Since then, she has worked steadily and progressively with distance and seems to be handled in a careful manner, not doing too much and just what is needed to get race ready.

#1 LIMANI is likely to get a lot of attention here making her first start on the circuit and for the connections. Overall she does not expect to offer much upside as a four-year-old filly previously trained by Chad Brown and can assume the prior connections were able to get the most out of her possible. She has also struggled throughout her career noting the layoff lines, one of which she returns from the 93-day break here privately purchased sometime following the May 12^th race. Trainer Vance Childers will also show up with #9 ANGEL EXPRESS coming back from a new top effort recorded on July 19^th. She will still need a move forward all around to get the win.

#5 RUTH OF JUDAH returns to make a second career start and another in this field that could get a lot of attention off the trainer stats shown in the pp’s. While the numbers are what they are, this filly on debut still needed a lot of work and experience (GATE, SLOG, GREEN) and still needed to see more from her to support with confidence off the debut visuals.