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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sun August 13th, 2023

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Jim's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:30 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
5 Juju's Specialgirl 6 Good Mongolia 4 Awesome Sunday

So much of a class edge in this spot for 5-JUJU'S SPECIALGIRL as well as a perfect pace setup for her. There looks to be a lot of speed ahead of her as she should be able to wait, rate, and run by in the lane. 6-GOOD MONGOLIA benefits from a likely quick and contested pace as well. She figures to settle back early on but should be closing with a rush in the lane. 4-AWESOME SUNDAY tries the turf for the first time today. She was good in starts two and three back but will need to avoid getting into a pace battle in this spot.

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 2:57 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
2 Not Very Gentle 1 Gagoots 5 Overthought

Very evenly matched bunch as 2-NOT VERY GENTLE has been consistent throughout the course of the meet. He has some tactical speed and may rate close as Centeno has been a great fit for him all meet long. 1-GAGOOTS is another that has been good this meet, rating and running on late. He loves this Hawthorne strip and is likely to get a good ground saving trip for Tavares. 5-OVERTHOUGHT is the one who figures to show speed. He turns back to the main track after running on the turf in his last couple. If he can shake loose early on, he may never loo back.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:24 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
4 Fabricator 6 Alexis N Niko 1 Uncaptured Dream

Just taking a chance to pull off an upset as I gave the nod to 4-FABRICATOR in this spot. He has run well in recent starts and should get enough pace to chase. The jock/trainer combo is having a good meet and the price may be right. 6-ALEXIS N NIKO comes off the layoff but will take a lot of action for top connections. He continues to drop in class though but is working consistently toward the return. 1-UNCAPTURED DREAM is one with speed but that could set things up for stablemate Fabricator. It was a good win last out and maybe the lightbulb has gone off.

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 3:51 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
2 Sweet Nellie 3 Wilma Mankiller 5 Moment to Shine

Solid field for this race but not a ton of pace. While 3-Wilma Mankiller is likely to show speed, 2-SWEET NELLIE could get a great tracking trip. She tried the grass in her last but with the move back to the dirt she should get a perfect stalking trip in here.3-WILMA MANKILLER is the horse with speed as she looks for her third win of the meet. She has the potential to shake loose early and if she is able to clear, she may never look back. 5-MOMENT TO SHINE could be in a stalking spot as she comes off a good grass win in her last. She debuted last November on the Churchill dirt and ran well so she figures to handle the main track nicely in this spot.

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 4:18 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
2 Time Heist 5 Sonnyisnotsofunny 3 Risky Boy

Going to be very right or very wrong here. To me, there's a lot of pace in this race, which should set things up for 2-TIME HEIST to come running late. He overcame a troubled start to close with a rush last out and goes a 16th of a mile further today. If the pace is contested early, expect him to get into the mix late. 5-SONNYISNOTSOFUNNY figures to take a lot of action on the class drop. He comes out of a tough race last out but this is so much easier that it could be a plunge to win and try to get claimed. 3-RISKY BOY could be the sleeper as he turns back in distance. Three quarters is his best distance and he has run competitively at this level and while facing better earlier in the meet.

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 4:45 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
3 Millard's Smile 1 Modifier 9 Slava Ukraini

The biggest question to be answered in this spot for me is how the 3-MILLARD'S SMILE is going to handle the turf. He has the class edge over the remainder of this field and picks up a top rider in Mojica in the saddle. I expect he rates mid-pack early and closes well in the lane. 1-MODIFIER is one that seems to be at his best on the grass. He just missed at this level two back and picks up the hot riding Tavares in the saddle. 9-SLAVA UKRANI has the best chance of any in here to wire the field. He ran well on the main track last out and was a good fit with Colon in the saddle.

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 5:39 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
5 Ruth of Judah 9 Angel Express 7 Viola

The return to the turf could be the key for 5-RUTH OF JUDAH as she stayed in when races came off the grass for her debut and ran a decent race. She was a bit reluctant to load in that spot though so let's see how she behaves today. 9-ANGEL EXPRESS has speed and looks to be solid on turf or dirt. This barn has been going well in recent weeks as this runner should be forwardly placed throughout. 7-VIOLA debuts for Rivelli with Lasix as she picks up Mojica in the saddle. Expect some speed from her and we will see what kind of action she takes at the windows.