Handicapper Tips & Picks

This is a competitive Special Weight event with a mix of new faces to contest others that have had some “trips” here this season. Starting with the local group and a pair that ran in a competitive race here on June 8^th earning solid figures: #2 MONEY AGENT made his local debut in that race making a positive PRERACE+ appearance and showing run despite likely needing the start. He returned in the Hawthorne Derby unable to get into the race with the poor start (TROUBLE_S) and TACTIC- held up while the race was controlled gate-to-wire by Act a Fool. He came back on July 23^rd with a full EX  _EXCUSE and projects to IMPROVE all around. #7 EVEN THE WIND comes out of the two common races with subtle trips though overall needing to show more with the string of B- OptixGRADE all season.

Those two will be joined by their stablemates: Block runner, #1 BORDER PATROL, a new face coming in from the NYRA circuit where he was placed in against statebred company and not showing enough (C OptixGRADE) without excuse in those two starts and must step up off those efforts to compete against the others in this field. #4 ICE SHARD for Perez recorded a B OptixGRADE in his lone turf start, though a softer 61 OptixFIG in a lower OFR race to suggest he must improve all around with today’s higher OFR. He also has a pattern of SLOG and that left him compromised in each race including the debut with a CLOSE and the July 26^th race showing another CLOSE against X_BIAS over a course tougher to make up ground on.

First time starter #5 NEWS AT NINE appears live on debut for Davis, a barn capable with debuting runners. They have been looking for a turf route race noting a scratch from August 9^th at HS Indy when those races came off the turf and appears to be race ready as they quickly find this spot to run in.

Eduardo Rodriguez also shows up with a pair giving the class and experience edge to #3 REGIMENTAL over #6 DAPPER DUDE wheeling right back from his debut just 6-days ago and stepping up in class in the process. REGIMENTAL has recorded speed figures that make him competitive, however has struggled to duplicate those efforts there this season. 

#6 RIVZONAROLL was a standout when he was entered on August 8^th in a $6250k N3L claiming race, though unable to make the race as a vet scratch, an issue that seems mild as he returns in this spot just days later. This is a tougher spot for him, though a spot he still fits in. He should benefit from the outside draw and with the other speed to his inside. The rail draw could be tougher for #1 SWISS GUARD a post he has struggled from in the past and has other speed to keep him honest including, #2 TIMEHASCOME to his inside.

#3 PINBALLER has also shown speed in his most recent starts, though does not appear as quick early as SWISS GUARD or TIMEHASCOME and that could assist him to try and fall into a tracking trip, a trip #5 SANTINO’S FANTASY will also look for to stalk and pounce. #4 LONESTAR CHROME does not hold any early speed or finishing ability (Quad IV Circle) and appears overmatched in this race. 

This is a competitive $13.5k OC event where many in this field have shown their ability to compete and win as individuals. The race shape and specifically “pace makes the race” should come into play here. Confirmed front runners #5 BLOOD MOON and #7 BOURBON DELIGHT project to use from the outside for position and must be used early to have a chance with other pacesetters to their inside. #1 TWO WORLDS projected to be forwardly placed on August 2^nd, though herded at the start he found himself off the pace moving up late behind pacesetting winner, Shackleford Strong. #2 MOMENT has legit early speed and has shown his ability to set fast (X_FLOW) fractions and still compete at the level this season.

With that contention, the race looks to set up for #6 DANVILLE, one that has benefit from favorable scenarios this season with PERFECT/TACTIC+ races picking up the two wins in June. #3 GLOBAL EMPIRE used his class to work a pocket trip and pick up the belated win this season on July 30^th. He does not project to be as close stalking today with the Sun/43 SpeedRate though could find himself in the right trip, at the right price and holding his form to pick up back-to-back wins.

#4 BEEALEA had buried form that allowed for him to get overlooked by the public and pick up the July 30^th win. Those “trips” again are impacting his Plot position and shape for today’s race. He has shown the consistent ability to compete at this level and one to keep in the mix once again. 

#6 CHOPPER should find a more favorable pace scenario (Snowflake/13 SpeedRate) to try and carry his speed gate to wire. He has some advantages looking at the Plot sitting with separation in Quad I higher on the y-axis above the ParLine. The “Red” PlotFit could see more “contention” early than what appears “on paper” and should be factored along with the Large Circle.

#2 HATCHET CREEK could be one of those runners to keep CHOPPER honest, or at the least sit in a stalking position and falling into a trip when that one starts to “Circle” coming back to the field late in the race. HATCHET CREEK brings upside in his own right with the SHORTER Projection coming right back from August 3^rd race at the higher claiming level. #1 SOUPER FORTUNE carries similar Projections with the DROP and SHORTER Keywords in his two most recent starts and project to move up under today’s conditions.

#4 CHICKS FOR FREE made a lot of sense at this level two weeks ago, though the pattern of SLOG played against him once again left with too much to do (CLOSE, SAVED, GALLOP+) late finishing as one of the top three together at the wire behind BOS winner, Mud Island. #5 IDEA MAN also part of that “blanket” finish comes right back in here as well and is another that has his pattern of gate issues, TROUBLE_S creating a hurdle in terms of trip from off the pace.

#3 PERFECT WAGER is a longshot to keep in the mix and could be some intent landing in this spot and making the trip back up to Hawthorne for Witthauer. PERFECT WAGER was claimed back on July 15^th and seemed to be “given” the August 5^th race as he cold on the board dismissed from the 7-2 ML and in terms of trip he was held up (TACTIC-) behind a slow (X_FLOW) pace and kept WIDE. His sprint races here from earlier this season fit right in line with today’s race par and those starter allowance races both assigned the same OFR as today’s event. His position on the Plot as a Quad III Square is given an edge over#7 PUBLIC SAFETY, Quad II Circle. PUBLIC SAFETY has recorded numbers that fit on his best day, though considered today’s race shape could have a hurdle and should be factored with the odds.

While the three runners with experience could have that advantage in this race, they have not shown enough in their races to support with confidence and open up for the new faces. One of those with experience, #1 RUMBRANDT will be joined by her stablemate #7 RIETTA making her debut and coming into this race with a progressive published worktab with two recent strong works to suggest she has some run.

Chris Block will also be represented by a pair of first time starters for Lothenbach both #6 BLAMELESS GLORY and #9 MODERN SOUND appear well prepared for this race and in capable hands though worth getting a look at the pair in the paddock on the board to assess further intent in here.

The works on paper are not obviously strong for #3 YODA GLITZ, though the gate work on July 19^th is a strong move for this barn and with plenty of foundation and getting into this race very light with the 10-lb allowance could suggest intent first out with Weatherly aboard. Eoin Harty does not have the strongest numbers with debuting runners, though has sent out live this season with a limited sample and that trend could continue with #2 KENWICK. 

The race shape is a tricky one with the “Fire” Contention paired with the lower SpeedRate and the field positioned below the ParLine. #7 APOLLO U ANYWHERE projects to take up her usual role on the lead though should be stalked by #8 ARCH FLYER and #9 MY LADY SLEW draw to her outside and prefer those outside two given the trip.

Looking at the Plot, the Large Square of #5 LITTLE BELLA is tough to ignore. The Plot is picking up data from her races before the extended layoff she returned from on June 11^th. She was given a look in that June race coming off the layoff as the type of runner that seemed “race ready” coming off that type of layoff. Current form becomes more of a concern as she again has another layoff line making this second start of the season off a two month break. Hernandez has been aboard #4 RANK AND FILE for each in-the-money finish this season and seems intent with the rider change made for this race. Looking at Standard, she has a similar shape and position to LITTLE BELLA with more reliable form from her races this season. She will require a top effort and trip with the shorter 5.5f distance, though not out of it and should offer value.

The lower SpeedRate should make things tougher on the “Circles” #1 AH LEAH, #2 TAP N TWINE, #3 HOPPESTRY and #6 AUNT STELLA runners positioned towards the lower end of the Plot.

Even with the “Sun” Contention and higher 74 SpeedRate, speed has been holding on this turf course. That profile can upgrade #1 SAILING SOLO and #3 POWER THROUGH the two Surface/Distance Squares. Part of that early pace is due to stretch out sprinter, #6 MIDNIGHT ESCAPE; main track runners, #7 FAST FALL and #9 COYOTE ROAD; and of course #4 BIZZEE CHANNEL making his belated return today for Rivelli.

Trip/Pace looks to finally set up for #2 PROTONIC POWER, one that has run quality races all season and still looking for his first 2023 win. Rival #5 SILVER QUARTERS also is looking for a belated win (July 2021) as well as some pace to run at for his RunStyle. He will make the transition here back to the turf, a surface he has handled and entered to run on this season. #8 CAPTIVATING MOON is another that has not had his picture taken since February 2021. His current form has had some concerns as a graded stakes horses that has started to show GATE issues, reluctant to load in each race this year.