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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Wed August 16th, 2023

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Ron's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:30 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
7 Even the Wind - 8/5 4 Ice Shard - 8/1 6 Dapper Dude - 6/1

7-EVEN THE WIND seems most likely. He finished in the money in all three Hawthorne starts, finally getting as high as second in last. He doesn’t sport a big closing move but he might be able to wear down these rivals. 4-ICE SHARD has to figure. He has only managed to run on turf once, his other two scheduled turf races were moved to the main track, but he finished second in that one race and finished ahead of Even the Wind in that spot. 6-DAPPER DUDE moves up off the claim. However, he arguably ran better than any in here and finished second by a rapidly-diminishing head. He’s back in only six days, which could be a cause for concern, but he has to be given the benefit of the doubt.

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 2:57 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
5 Santino's Fantasy - 8/1 2 Timehascome - 8/5 6 Rivzonaroll - 2/1

Interesting race featuring many droppers. But, we are nearing the end of the meet and the “For Sale” sign will be out on many runners for the next three weeks. Really don’t know if 5-SANTINO’S FANTASY is fast enough but from a pure pace standpoint, he looks like the only runner in here that doesn’t want the early lead. If the plethora of front runners tire themselves fighting for the lead, he could set sail late. 2-TIMEHASCOME is the most logical front runner. He wired the field the last time he ran at this level and has raced competitively against better since then. 6-RIVZONAROLL drops to his lowest level ever. He’s one of many in here with speed. He’s been tiring late but might hang on better at this level.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:24 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
2 Moment - 9/5 6 Danville - 7/2 3 Global Empire - 5/1

2-MOMENT could get back on the winning track. Speedy runner has been meeting superior speed in his last few but figures to put away the other speed runners in this spot and still be able to finish with something left. 6-DANVILLE is another top contender. He’s another in great form. Hasn’t finished out of the money all year, with wins in three of his eight starts. But he has yet to beat top choice. 3-GLOBAL EMPIRE could get the trip. He’s been in good form for months. Winner of last against allowance company will be tracking the pace once again. Could surge past them all late. 

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 3:51 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
4 Chicks for Free - 5/2 5 Idea Man - 7/2 1 Souper Fortune - 5/1

4-CHICKS FOR FREE gets a slight nod. He ran well in last to finish third and might have been moving fastest of all late in that race that was a sixteenth shorter. There’s a good chance he would have won at today’s distance. But, there’s another member of this field that also finished fast and he was a length and a half ahead of this runner at the finish. 5-IDEA MAN was the runner that finished second to Chicks For Free’s third. He also came running late and he lost that shorter race by only a half length. However, his regular rider in that spot apparently chose a different runner for this race. 1-SOUPER FORTUNE drops and turns back in distance. He won the last time he ran at this distance and the last two times he raced against runners somewhat similar to these. Colon chose to ride him instead of Idea Man. It could be an interesting finish. 

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 4:18 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
5 Moms Channel - 3/1 1 Rumbrandt - 8/1 6 Blameless Ghost - 5/1 2 Kenwick - 7/2

Don’t know if 5-MOM’S CHANNEL is a standout in here but she ran well under pressure in her career debut and held for third. That race was on dirt but she has an outstanding turf pedigree. Not sure this race will stay on the lawn after all the rain the last few days but we already know she can run well on dirt. Guessing she’ll be tough either way. 1-RUMBRANDT wasn’t going to beat that $500k runner in her career debut but she ran well enough to finish third. Think she’s another that might be better on the lawn. In any case, experience helps and she doesn’t seem likely to run into any whirlwinds in this race. Figures at a price. 6-BLAMELESS GHOST is making her debut. Well-bred runner should take to any surface and she races for a barn that knows how to get their babies ready to run well at first asking. 2-KENWICK is another with a brilliant pedigree and good drills. She’s shipping in for this race. However, her barn’s runners don’t often win with first timers. Of course, she can always be the exception.

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 4:45 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
8 Arch Flyer - 7/2 7 Apollo U Anywhere - 9/5 5 Little Bella - 10/1

8-ARCH FLYER has been in pretty good form. She had a win and three seconds from her last five starts. She owns good speed but think her ability to lay off the pace a bit makes her tougher in this spot. 7-APOLLO U ANYWHERE could be the best of the speed. She folded late in last after fighting for the lead but maybe she can escape on the lead today. 5-LITTLE BELLA finished third of four in last but she was making her first start in well over two years. On her best day, she would probably be the quickest of these but she’s taking blinks off for this race and might try to track the pace. Can surprise late.

 

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 5:12 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
2 Protonic Power - 7/2 1 Sailing Solo - 5/2 8 Captivating Moon - 9/2

2-PROTONIC POWER is a slim pick. But the pace of this race should set up perfectly for him and he runs well on turf or the main track. However, he’s making his eighth start of the year without a win so he’s obviously vulnerable. 1-SAILING SOLO would have been a stone cold lock in a race like this in 2020 and maybe even in 2021. However, he had only one race last year and he’s only making his third start of this year. He loves the front end but not sure he’ll be able to put away all the other speed in this race. 8-CAPTIVATING MOON is another likely to finish fast with all the speed ahead of him in this spot. He finished behind top choice in last but ahead of that rival in their prior two meetings.