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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sun August 20th, 2023

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Jim's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:30 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
2 Lucy's Lookin Left 6 Hot Dame 4 Dialed Inna

The outside three all have speed in here but they also appear to be the best three in the race. With that said, the race could still have the pace fall apart as 2-LUCY'S LOOKIN LEFT looks to be in a great stalking spot and closing late. Her race two back was solid at this level as she was only a neck behind Free Love at the wire. Maybe she's in an upset spot today. 6-HOT DAME has speed and has been very good this year, running first or second in nice straight starts. She ran huge here back in April before a trip to Ohio but returns today with a big shot, if she can shake loose from the other speed. 4-DIALED INNA has speed but doesn't need the lead to win. She runs for a barn that has had a great meet and comes off a race where she battled into the lane last out. Curios to see where she settles early in here today.

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 2:57 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
2 Mud Hut 4 Gyurza 5 Sister Saint

Not a great bunch here and also not much pace to speak of either. Have to think 2-MUD HUT inherits the lead and possibly cruises the entire way around. She ran well last out, chasing the lone speed, but she may become the speed today. 4-GYURZA turns back to a sprint as she drops back in class as well today. With the bug rider in the saddle, she may rate a bit closer early and hang around late. 5-SISTER SAINT closed some ground to finish third last out as the 6-5 favorite. She's in a similar situation once again as there's not a ton of pace to chase. Let's see if the added 16th off that start is the great equalizer.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:24 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
7 First Masamune 3 Memphis Prayer 1 Christmas Present

I'm torn with what to do in regards to High Brow. I think you either have to pick him and single him or not use him at all. I went for the later of the two as it could backfire on me. Going to look to 7-FIRST MASAMUNE as he takes the class drop into today's card. He has some tactical speed and this race has no committed front runner. Let's see if he rates close early and takes over in the lane. 3-MEMPHIS PRAYER was claimed out of his last but remains at the same level once again. He will need pace to chase as he figures to sit back early and close late. 1-CHRISTMAS PRESENT is another who could sit closer early and look to battle the entire way. Troubled starts have compromised him in his last couple but he merits a look if he can get away well today.

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 3:51 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
5 Tough Little Nut 6 Purple Octopus 4 Neon Deion

Babies on the turf with a solid field set to line up. Seems like every time Manny Esquivel comes in to ride at Hawthorne he has success so I'm giving the nod to 5-TOUGH LITTLE NUT on debut. Breeding suggests win early and also turf breeding as Block runners have had a great meet on the grass. Let's see what he looks like in the paddock and warming up. 6-PURPLE OCTOPUS and 4-NEON DEION have been working together, with Purple Octopus outworking his stablemate. Rivelli always good with young runners and with Mojica riding Purple Octopus, I'll look to that one over Neon Deion to run 2-3.

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 4:45 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
5 Tape to Tape 3 W W Candy 7 Wildwood Sicilian

An excellent field with a lot of stakes quality racehorses. The distance is the key as at six furlongs 5-TAPE TO TAPE should have enough speed to make the top and never look back. He's been strong in his last three and nearly held on going a 16th further in his last. Expect him to shake loose in here and wire the field. 3-W W CANDY was all heart in running down Tape to Tape last out as Abel Lezcano gave him an incredible ride. He needs that pace to chase once again as he figures to close well. The only question is if he can catch the frontrunner in the lane or not. 7-WILDWOOD SICILIAN has tactical speed and could rate the closest early to Tape to Tape. He has run well at the distance but comes off a layoff into here and will need his best to compete with the top two.

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 5:12 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
1 Maneuver 7 Overdue Honor 9 Scenic Justice

Tough with unproven runners but worth a shot to look for a price. Going to give a chance to 1-MANEUVER as he looks to get back on the turf today. He ran well in both career starts and gets the hot riding Abel Lezcano in the saddle. He figures to sit back early but there looks to be enough pace in this race to close into late. 7-OVERDUE HONOR has had turf intentions in his last couple but stayed in when each came off the grass. There were some questions to be answered as he returned off the long layoff but he seems to be rounding back into form and should be sitting on a big race. 9-SCENIC JUSTICE is at his best on the grass and we will see how he handles the move to the sprint. He closed too late in his last but has gone favored in three straight and figures to take action once again.