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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Thu August 24th, 2023

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Ron's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 4:45 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
2 Blue Neith - 9/5 5 Spiritcatcher - 7/2 7 Lorraine's Legacy - 4/1

This might not be a “gimme” race for 2-BLUE NEITH but it seems to come close. She’s had 15 turf races, winning two and coming close in most of the others. This speedy filly might face some early pressure but this shorter sprint/route could be perfect for her. Makes her local and barn debut. It could be a winning one. 5-SPIRIT CATCHER just scored her first turf victory. Her speed figures suggest that she could be as fast as top choice but she comes from far back and there might not be enough speed to set up for that kind of late run. 7-LORRAINE'S LEGACY is interesting. She showed little in her lone turf race, running for a barn that specializes in turf runners, but she did generate a competitive speed figure in that spot. Got claimed from a winning dirt effort in last. Her new barn does well with their claims. Might be able to surprise with this one.

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 5:15 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
4 Ribbonsinherhair - 9/5 6 Style - 5/2 5 I Don't Know Margo - 7/2

Not in love with 4-RIBBONSINHERHAIR but she did finish second in her local debut and she beat most of her current rivals in that effort. Could be even stronger after getting a race over the track. 6-STYLE finished third in last two. She was only a half length behind top choice at the finish and might have been moving even better. Maybe she’ll get by all of them late. 5-I DON’T KNOW MARGO might be the quickest member of this field. She seldom makes the lead but there isn’t much other speed in here. Might grab quick control.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 5:45 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
2 Man On Attack - 9/2 5 Cool and Collected - 5/2 6 Coming Up Aces - 10/1

2-MAN ON ATTACK could win at a square price. He has shown some turf talent in his two races on this surface. He does own decent speed but think he’s more likely to attack late with all the other speed in this field. 5-COOL AND COLLECTED is hard to figure. He showed absolutely nothing in his debut, on turf, but came back six weeks later to wire the field, again on turf. It’s been about another month since that race and he’s had one useful drill since. He’s not the only speed in this field. We’ll see what happens if he gets pressured early. 6-COMING UP ACES hasn’t won in a couple years but he is the only one in here with two turf scores, he closes well at times. And he’s moving back into Illinois breds.

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 6:15 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
4 Emityaaz - 5/1 7 Shadow Belle - 3/1 3 Maria's Gift - 7/2

4-EMITYAZZ had had three races at this meet and had legitimate excuses in all three. She made her turf debut in her local debut, was in too tough in her second, and was in too tough in a race that was too short in her last. She’s finally in the right spot. Should awaken. 7-SHADOW BELLE is likely to be sent right to the lead. She typically sprints but the last time they stretched her out she won in near wire-to-wire fashion. She seems to be rounding back into form. Might lead all the way. 3-MARIA’S GIFT figures prominently. She might not be quite as quick as Shadow Belle but she does own good route speed and she’s coming off two straight seconds at this level and distance.

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 6:45 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
9 Wanda Strong - 5/1 6 Sake [FR] - 5/2 3 R Katiebug - 6/1 1 I'm Box Office - 6/1

9-WANDA STRONG has been in great form this year. She won only once but all four of her races have been sharp. She missed by a nose in last after a troubled trip and if that race had been at today’s distance, she probably would have won. 6-SAKE ships in to try our turf. She’s had some great races and some there were not. Her lone win came at a minor French track in 2021. She’s likely meeting easier here than she has been facing but that’s not a guarantee that she’ll do much better. Not sure 3-R KATIEBUG will turn out to be as good as her older sisters but she does appear to be on her way to a good career. She missed by a vanishing head in last, her first turf race, and she’s another that might do even better with the extra sixteenth of real estate. Don’t ignore 1-I’M BOX OFFICE. She has shown considerable improvement this year over last. She finished third, a couple lengths behind top pick in last but she did have stretch trouble and had to overcome that to regain her momentum. She’s a very real threat.

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 7:15 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
1 Madelyn Belle - 4/5 3 Loveyoulikecrazy - 7/2 6 Cowgirl Frankie - 5/1

1-MADELYN BELLE looks tough. She broke her maiden on dirt versus Illinois breds two starts back and then took on and beat open company on the lawn. She’s back on dirt and back in state breds for this. Could extend her win streak to three. 3-LOVEYOULIKECRAZY wired the field to break her maiden in last. Don’t think she’s quite as quick as top choice but she’s likely to be chasing that filly all the way around in close proximity. 6-COWGIRL FRANKIE could get the ideal pace ahead of her if the top pair and one or two others in here lock up in a speed duel.

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 7:45 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
8 Getoutofmykitchen - 6/1 1 First Hill - 5/2 2 Apple Ever After - 7/2 3 Gold Oak - 5/1

Interesting race. Certainly no standouts in here. But like the way 8-GETOUTOFMYKITCHEN finished in last. The race was obviously too short for her but she was making up ground late. Worried that she might display more speed with the stretch out but if her rider can get her to relax in the early going, she might be able to run by them all late. 1-FIRST HILL has had some competitive efforts and her speed figures suggest that she’s the one that should win this. 2-APPLE EVER AFTER hasn’t shown much but she’s another taking on a somewhat easier group. Could be racing right off the pace. 3-GOLD OAK should have little trouble grabbing the early lead. She seems far quicker than the rest. However, she’s been running out of gas in short sprints. Not sure she’ll last the distance on the lead.