Handicapper Tips & Picks

Trainer Brian Cook sent out some live runners on the Wednesday card and that trend could carry here with #3 FIRST SQUADRON returning to the main track in her second start off the layoff. She is one of a group that prefers to race on or near the lead (has rivals #1 AWESOME SUNDAY and #2 BALILESTON LASSIE to her inside as E/EP types) though can sit just off if needed. #4 ARCH FLYER can sit a similar stalking trip and class wise is a lateral move returning to the restricted $5kb level, a condition she won back on May 28^th.

#6 PALAGO can inherit the right trip with her RunStyle and number wise has recorded some of the higher, consistent figures in this field to compete. Form will be the biggest challenge as she had to run hard to win coming off the longer 258-day layoff on August 10^th, that race just 17-days ago. Form is also key with #7 BERTRADA another with form and a win at this level, though off her recent races must step up though to her benefit should have the pace to stalk for her RunStyle. 

Even though #3 LUCKY ROMANCE had to settle for the minors behind her stablemate winner, Tough Little Nut last week, visually her BTL effort caught the eye and in not for the SLOG and still GREEN an argument could be made she was “best” that day. The quick turnaround and stretch out are factors to consider, though top connections are calling the shots and seem she is ready if they are back in the entries. She will be joined by stablemate, #5 BERNIN TUNE one with steady works and with Colon, a rider that has had success for the barn this meet. She is one to get a look at in the paddock (and the board) for clues on race readiness.

#2 SAVE THE KING showed run in his Ellis Park debut earlier this month and taking a subtle step up to race on this circuit protected. The move could be a positive sign off the debut, liking the effort (contact with the gate made inside move with the top three together at the wire) first out and wanted to race protected and making the circuit switch to still allow this horse a chance to compete.

As far as the Rivelli pair: #7 GUCCI MAN has the benefit of experience and should benefit from the class relief and circuit switch as he was not on the level of his rivals at Saratoga – and as far as the surface switch he did not seem to handle early kickback and off the visuals should be find on the turf though still must show move; #6 DOUBLE DRIBBLE is a tough read as a statebred making his debut with some gaps in the works and nothing published during the month of August.

With the Perez pair #1 IMPLEMENTER and #4 JET FLIGHT it is not uncommon for this type of limited published worktab for the barn. Both have the gaps in works and appear together with the most recent drill on August 23^rd to prepare for this race. The paddock (and board) visuals are key. 

While the horses that have run here this season could present that experience and recency edge today, they all have left something to be desired (#1 BLACK RAVEN preferred of the group, though has the tendency to SLOG and came be a concern/value wise with the sprint distance and rail draw) and to look for a new face. #5 SHINETHELIGHTONME makes hi belated debut and has a long series of local works going back to April with the pattern restarting in July to get ready for this race. #6 CREPE YARNS finds a lateral class change from the most recent maiden claiming events in Kentucky to run here. To his credit he has shown progress coming back as a three-year-old and lands in this spot for Mosier (barn change, same owner) after a vet scratch from a July 29^th MSW race at Fan Duel. 

Outside of the SLOG in both starts last year for #4 WILDWOOD GHALY, both of her races were solid and could step up coming back today for Becker as just one of two four-year-old fillies in the field. Her debut was EX – EXCUSE as she was unprepared (GATE) at the start and not asked (NO_PUSH) for run. She built off that race again with a TROUBLE_S stumbled at the start and made big MOVE to get into the mix late. Another SLOG could be projected, though she should have some pace to close into with stablemate #5 CAHOKIA POSSE (DQ’d from win for drifting into a path of rival last month at Fan Duel) as well as the two to her inside with 3 MADELYN ATTACK and #1 NO NAP NEEDED one that showed early speed on debut as well #6 TU ROYAL on her outside.

#7 JOYZELLA moved up as projected returning to statebred company on August 10^th and at the right level should turn in another honest effort today. #2 FREEDOM ATTACK could also benefit from a contentious pace and has been able to make up ground at the 5.5f distance this year, though in terms of class she has struggled with the allowance conditions she returns to here. 

#6 CAPTIVATING MOON has not quite been his old self this season and the DROP should move him up to compete at this level. Number wise he has not been posting the figures from prior years, though those figures stack up with this field. His behavior at the GATE should be monitored as this former graded stakes and professional race horse has started to develop of a pattern of being reluctant to load.

The pace is a tough read especially with #1 COMMAND CENTRAL on the rail; a horse that can be involved in the early pace, though in his more recent starts they have tried to rate and that changed the race shape in those August events. #3 VITALE also has early speed and while he might not appear as “flashy” on paper as COMMAND CENTRAL, he has been recording similar figures and fits competitively at the claiming level.

Clay will also be represented by #7 FLY NIGHTLY coming off a favorable trip win a this level in the August 3^rd common race. The trip was less than ideal that day for #2 SIERRA HOTEL and one to monitor on visuals in the paddock as he returns here looking to get back to top form.

If the pace does become contentious early, #8 STORM’S REFLECTION can benefit with his late kick and preferred slightly over #5 DYNABLUE bringing a similar RunStyle and off the favorable trip win for $10l earlier this month. 

#3 ARRINGTON could be flying under the radar as she returns to the Hawthorne main track, a surface she has run competitively and arguably her better races to date over. Her three prior starts were also against a higher class to suggest this move has further intent today for Meraz looking to get that belated win.

#8 LADY WHITE SOX also finds considerable class relief and likely the right move to see her competitive. Going back to last Sunner she recorded a pair of solid figures, the June 24^th number standing out as a race to run back to here that makes her a contender. The timing and intent also looks in play as she makes her second start for Elias Lopez, second start in the blinkers and making a rider change to Santiago, that should see her show more early speed as well.

#9 GO ON GIRL will take the class drop from her most recent starts, though has been at this level in the past, claimed under similar circumstances back in July. The return to this level is the right move overall, though most show more to win. She has legit early speed though drawn outside of others with speed in this field and could be compromised on that dynamic. #5 RAIN ATTACK also carries early speed and while it would have been more encouraging for her to have shown more back on June 27^th at Fan Duel at the lower MCL level, she was used early for position (HARD_LEAD) and into a Fast paced DUEL.

#7 CUPID’S HOPE is a first time starter in here and one that has shown intention to run at this level this season – she was a vet scratch back on June 15^th and again more recently on August 9^th and both times with a different rider as Ortega being the third named picks up the call. 

#5 CHRISTMAS PRESENT and Abel Lezcano will get a do-over following the equipment malfunction last week. In addition, they will find class relief from that event and back to the N2Y level where they were competitive on August 9^th and today is a lower OFR than that event.

Trip is key for #7 PISTOL BOX as he makes that late run from off the pace. Esquivel will take back over today, a rider that has had success aboard in the past and that assignment once again signals intent.

Hugo Rodriguez returns with a pair and returning to the main track with #8 WHERE’D THE DAY GO, he had a longshot look on August 9^th though unable to overcome the ground loss (WIDE) from the outside post. Part of the reason for consideration on the day was the July 8^th BTL effort at Belterra Park and Colon the rider that day jumps back aboard here. This one has some early speed, though not the confirmed front runner as his stablemate #1 MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE projected to take up that role from the rail and should be joined by others in here such as #2 OVERTHOUGHT, #9 FATHER PATRICK and likely #10 ONE WAY HOME as he stretches back out to a route and going back to his prior route races was on or near the lead – similar RunStyle with #3 KRAMDEN when he was in his top form.

That early contention could benefit #4 FLASHY RICHIE as he is one that requires the right pace, trip, and field in order to win. Trip will be key with #11 GAGOOTS a more logical type off his recent running lines and finishing position, something that will be present in the odds. 

I'm thinking the little layoff could make a big difference for 4-ARCH FLYER as she picks up the 10 lbs. bug in the saddle. She has been solid in her last five and looks to get a good stalking trip in here. 3-FIRST SQUADRON has speed and likes this track. I expect she makes the top today and possibly without much pace pressure. If that's the case, expect her to hang around in the stretch. 6-PALAGO ran a big race off the layoff in her last. She did get a great pace setup ahead of her as the speed went way too fast early. She will be tough once again but may have to work a bit harder in here.

It wasn't a great trip in the debut for 7-GUCCI MAN as he got away slowly, was wide throughout and never given much of a shot. That also came while facing tougher in New York after training here at Hawthorne leading to the debut. He finds things easier today as the outside draw could be beneficial. He will be last to load and first out while may help the break. Let's see if he shows some speed into the first turn and improves in his second start out. 2-SAVE THE KING debuted at Ellis and made a good showing of himself. He also raced into some traffic early in that race before running on late. Expect a good performance in his second start out. 5-BERNIN TUNE is one of two Block runners as he is bred to run all day. He has a couple of solid drills but I wouldn't be surprised if he settles early and comes running in the lane.

Odd race as my top wo choices in here were both horses that I expected more from around two turns in their last starts. 3-GONE AGAIN ran a solid second to Tahoe Run two back but disappointed in his last. While sprinting, he figures to settle mid-pack early and should come running in the lane. 1-BLACK RAVEN is another that I thought would be good at two turns. He seemed to get leg weary in the lane last out though and may be best off sprinting as he makes a quick turnaround. 7-LARRY THE POET has speed and ability as he battled in his most recent start. The distance suits as he could try to steal this one on the front end.

I liked 1-NO NAP NEEDED in her debut and she ran fairly well at first asking. She showed speed in that spot and contended into the lane before giving way. She draws the rail in here and with a race under her belt, along with the shorter distance, let's see how she runs for her second start out. 7-JOYZELLA would have been my selection at 6 furlongs but I worry that 5 1/2 isn't enough time for her closing kick. I do like that she is back in with state-bred company again as a contested pace upfront will play to her benefit. 4-WILDWOOD GHALY makes her first start of the year as she has worked consistently toward her return. He had troubled starts in her first two career races before the extended layoff so let's see if she gets away in good order or not today.

A major class advantage in here goes to 6-CAPTIVATING MOON as he drops in to the lowest level of his career. He looks to get enough pace to chase as he figures to rate back early but should close with a rush. 2-SIERRA HOTEL has always been a favorite of mine as he seems to put forth consistent efforts on the grass. He does have enough tactical speed to get into the race early and if he can tuck in just behind the pace he should be able to move forwardly into the lane. 1-COMMAND CENTRAL has been a different racehorse since he won at the end of June. He's been right there in his last three while taking a lot of action at the windows in his last two. Expect him to rate close early and contend the entire way.

It hasn't been a great season for 7-PISTOL BOX but maybe this is where he grabs a win. He's never one that will be in the picture early but at times he does come running late. If the pace is contested upfront, Esquivel could have him closing quickly late while at a price. 11-GAGOOTS has been good on the year, finding the board in six of seven starts. He also tends to settle off the pace but should be moving forwardly in the lane. 8-WHERE'D THE DAY GO has a bit more tactical speed as he could tuck into the second flight early. The class drop and move back to the dirt could put him in the mix in here.

6-PALAGO seems to have the perfect running style for this race. This seven-time winner scored in last and she could get an even better pace to run at in this spot. 1-AWESOME SUNDAY stretches to her best distance, moves back to the main track and, most importantly, she drops to the right level. She’s one of many with speed but she might hold that advantage from the rail. 3-FIRST SQUADRON figures prominently. He’s been running on turf and displaying only brief speed. Now he’s dropping in class and heading back to the right surface. He wired the fields in his last two main-track starts here. Might be able to do it again. 

Not many in here sport strong turf pedigrees and fewer still have turf experience. Because of that, have to go with 3-LUCKY ROMANCE. He split the field in his debut, on turf, but he was making up ground late in that short sprint. Stretches out and adds blinkers. Experience could be the key. The well-bred 5-BERNIN TUNE is the stablemate of top choice. He’s been training well and runners from his barn usually are competitive when making their debut.  2-SAVE THE KING is the only other with turf experience and one of only two others that have had a race. He also split the field in his lone start, on turf and he was another making up ground late. 6-DOUBLE DRIBBLE hasn’t shown much in drills but he does have some turf pedigree and appreciate Loveberry in the irons. 

You can never really know what will happen until it happens but this track has been awfully speed favoring lately and 7-LARRY THE POET seems to hold the advantage in the speed department. He’s coming off a strong second-place finish where he led most of the way. But that race was at six and a half and he cuts back to six for this. Might not get caught. 1-BLACK RAVEN completes the sprint-route-sprint sequence. He ran competitively in all of his races. Think he’ll finish this one with authority. 3-GONE AGAIN hasn’t raced in nearly two months and recent drills have been sparse but he had some good efforts in the past and his barn brings them ready off layoffs. 

Heard they liked 1-NO NAP NEEDED in her debut but she seemed to need the race. However, she did lead most of the way and only tired late. That race was the tightener she needed. The cutback in distance could be a big help. 4-WILDWOOD GHALY races for the first time since November but she has been training well. She finished third here in her most recent start. She’s one of two in here from the same barn. The other, 5-CAHOKIA POSSE displayed good speed in both races. She finished first in last but got DQ’d. Would imagine she’ll be trying for the lead once again. Could be tough. 7-JOYZELLA makes her 15th start as a maiden. Think this race is a bit too short for her but she will be moving well late and could easily get up to share. 

6-CAPTIVATING MOON hasn’t been in the best of form lately and he hasn’t won in at least two years but he has never been in this easy. His speed figs remain among the highest of any in here. It would be a surprise if he didn’t win this one. 7-FLY NIGHTLY reeled off three straight victories, including last at this level. Good natural speed will keep him close to the early leaders. He’s beaten most of these rivals in at least one of those three races. Not sure he can beat top choice but he might be able to make a race of it. 1-COMMAND CENTRAL was narrowly beaten in his last couple, losing last by a head after getting defeated by a nose in his prior start. He’s a versatile runner capable of running well on or off the pace. Can figure in the outcome.  

9-GO ON GIRL has been racing over her head since getting claimed. There’s no guarantee that she’ll win with the drop but she did finish second as the odds-on favorite the last time she ran at this level. 4-HOLY STAR has had some competitive efforts when racing around this level. She made a couple moves and finished third in last. Could be in the hunt in this one. 8-LADY WHITE SOX drops into maiden claimers for the first time. She hasn’t shown a thing this year but that can change at this level. 

10-ONE WAY HOME might be able to steal this. He’s been sprinting for a long time but he’s got a great record at the distance, with two wins and four seconds from seven tries. Might tire and might get caught but he also has a chance to wire them at a price. 11-GAGOOTS comes from far back and that could be his undoing. He always makes a big late run but, more often than not, he comes up a little short. But, he’s usually right there at the finish. Maybe today he’ll get the job done. 2-OVERTHOUGHT will try to ensure that top pick doesn’t get away unchallenged. He does own good speed but seems to have distance limitations.