Handicapper Tips & Picks

Trainer Brian Cook sent out some live runners on the Wednesday card and that trend could carry here with #3 FIRST SQUADRON returning to the main track in her second start off the layoff. She is one of a group that prefers to race on or near the lead (has rivals #1 AWESOME SUNDAY and #2 BALILESTON LASSIE to her inside as E/EP types) though can sit just off if needed. #4 ARCH FLYER can sit a similar stalking trip and class wise is a lateral move returning to the restricted $5kb level, a condition she won back on May 28^th.

#6 PALAGO can inherit the right trip with her RunStyle and number wise has recorded some of the higher, consistent figures in this field to compete. Form will be the biggest challenge as she had to run hard to win coming off the longer 258-day layoff on August 10^th, that race just 17-days ago. Form is also key with #7 BERTRADA another with form and a win at this level, though off her recent races must step up though to her benefit should have the pace to stalk for her RunStyle. 

Even though #3 LUCKY ROMANCE had to settle for the minors behind her stablemate winner, Tough Little Nut last week, visually her BTL effort caught the eye and in not for the SLOG and still GREEN an argument could be made she was “best” that day. The quick turnaround and stretch out are factors to consider, though top connections are calling the shots and seem she is ready if they are back in the entries. She will be joined by stablemate, #5 BERNIN TUNE one with steady works and with Colon, a rider that has had success for the barn this meet. She is one to get a look at in the paddock (and the board) for clues on race readiness.

#2 SAVE THE KING showed run in his Ellis Park debut earlier this month and taking a subtle step up to race on this circuit protected. The move could be a positive sign off the debut, liking the effort (contact with the gate made inside move with the top three together at the wire) first out and wanted to race protected and making the circuit switch to still allow this horse a chance to compete.

As far as the Rivelli pair: #7 GUCCI MAN has the benefit of experience and should benefit from the class relief and circuit switch as he was not on the level of his rivals at Saratoga – and as far as the surface switch he did not seem to handle early kickback and off the visuals should be find on the turf though still must show move; #6 DOUBLE DRIBBLE is a tough read as a statebred making his debut with some gaps in the works and nothing published during the month of August.

With the Perez pair #1 IMPLEMENTER and #4 JET FLIGHT it is not uncommon for this type of limited published worktab for the barn. Both have the gaps in works and appear together with the most recent drill on August 23^rd to prepare for this race. The paddock (and board) visuals are key. 

While the horses that have run here this season could present that experience and recency edge today, they all have left something to be desired (#1 BLACK RAVEN preferred of the group, though has the tendency to SLOG and came be a concern/value wise with the sprint distance and rail draw) and to look for a new face. #5 SHINETHELIGHTONME makes hi belated debut and has a long series of local works going back to April with the pattern restarting in July to get ready for this race. #6 CREPE YARNS finds a lateral class change from the most recent maiden claiming events in Kentucky to run here. To his credit he has shown progress coming back as a three-year-old and lands in this spot for Mosier (barn change, same owner) after a vet scratch from a July 29^th MSW race at Fan Duel. 

Outside of the SLOG in both starts last year for #4 WILDWOOD GHALY, both of her races were solid and could step up coming back today for Becker as just one of two four-year-old fillies in the field. Her debut was EX – EXCUSE as she was unprepared (GATE) at the start and not asked (NO_PUSH) for run. She built off that race again with a TROUBLE_S stumbled at the start and made big MOVE to get into the mix late. Another SLOG could be projected, though she should have some pace to close into with stablemate #5 CAHOKIA POSSE (DQ’d from win for drifting into a path of rival last month at Fan Duel) as well as the two to her inside with 3 MADELYN ATTACK and #1 NO NAP NEEDED one that showed early speed on debut as well #6 TU ROYAL on her outside.

#7 JOYZELLA moved up as projected returning to statebred company on August 10^th and at the right level should turn in another honest effort today. #2 FREEDOM ATTACK could also benefit from a contentious pace and has been able to make up ground at the 5.5f distance this year, though in terms of class she has struggled with the allowance conditions she returns to here. 

#6 CAPTIVATING MOON has not quite been his old self this season and the DROP should move him up to compete at this level. Number wise he has not been posting the figures from prior years, though those figures stack up with this field. His behavior at the GATE should be monitored as this former graded stakes and professional race horse has started to develop of a pattern of being reluctant to load.

The pace is a tough read especially with #1 COMMAND CENTRAL on the rail; a horse that can be involved in the early pace, though in his more recent starts they have tried to rate and that changed the race shape in those August events. #3 VITALE also has early speed and while he might not appear as “flashy” on paper as COMMAND CENTRAL, he has been recording similar figures and fits competitively at the claiming level.

Clay will also be represented by #7 FLY NIGHTLY coming off a favorable trip win a this level in the August 3^rd common race. The trip was less than ideal that day for #2 SIERRA HOTEL and one to monitor on visuals in the paddock as he returns here looking to get back to top form.

If the pace does become contentious early, #8 STORM’S REFLECTION can benefit with his late kick and preferred slightly over #5 DYNABLUE bringing a similar RunStyle and off the favorable trip win for $10l earlier this month. 

#3 ARRINGTON could be flying under the radar as she returns to the Hawthorne main track, a surface she has run competitively and arguably her better races to date over. Her three prior starts were also against a higher class to suggest this move has further intent today for Meraz looking to get that belated win.

#8 LADY WHITE SOX also finds considerable class relief and likely the right move to see her competitive. Going back to last Sunner she recorded a pair of solid figures, the June 24^th number standing out as a race to run back to here that makes her a contender. The timing and intent also looks in play as she makes her second start for Elias Lopez, second start in the blinkers and making a rider change to Santiago, that should see her show more early speed as well.

#9 GO ON GIRL will take the class drop from her most recent starts, though has been at this level in the past, claimed under similar circumstances back in July. The return to this level is the right move overall, though most show more to win. She has legit early speed though drawn outside of others with speed in this field and could be compromised on that dynamic. #5 RAIN ATTACK also carries early speed and while it would have been more encouraging for her to have shown more back on June 27^th at Fan Duel at the lower MCL level, she was used early for position (HARD_LEAD) and into a Fast paced DUEL.

#7 CUPID’S HOPE is a first time starter in here and one that has shown intention to run at this level this season – she was a vet scratch back on June 15^th and again more recently on August 9^th and both times with a different rider as Ortega being the third named picks up the call. 

#5 CHRISTMAS PRESENT and Abel Lezcano will get a do-over following the equipment malfunction last week. In addition, they will find class relief from that event and back to the N2Y level where they were competitive on August 9^th and today is a lower OFR than that event.

Trip is key for #7 PISTOL BOX as he makes that late run from off the pace. Esquivel will take back over today, a rider that has had success aboard in the past and that assignment once again signals intent.

Hugo Rodriguez returns with a pair and returning to the main track with #8 WHERE’D THE DAY GO, he had a longshot look on August 9^th though unable to overcome the ground loss (WIDE) from the outside post. Part of the reason for consideration on the day was the July 8^th BTL effort at Belterra Park and Colon the rider that day jumps back aboard here. This one has some early speed, though not the confirmed front runner as his stablemate #1 MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE projected to take up that role from the rail and should be joined by others in here such as #2 OVERTHOUGHT, #9 FATHER PATRICK and likely #10 ONE WAY HOME as he stretches back out to a route and going back to his prior route races was on or near the lead – similar RunStyle with #3 KRAMDEN when he was in his top form.

That early contention could benefit #4 FLASHY RICHIE as he is one that requires the right pace, trip, and field in order to win. Trip will be key with #11 GAGOOTS a more logical type off his recent running lines and finishing position, something that will be present in the odds.