Handicapper Tips & Picks

The pace looks to be contentious (Fire) though with the lower SpeedRate could still benefit a horse with early speed. #1 I’M YOUR CAPTAIN could be that horse as he returns to the lower N2 claiming level going back to a competitive B- OptixGRADE effort making a RUSH into a fast (X_FLOW) pace and holding for place. His early speed could try to get some separation and that would be key as the “Square” stalkers #3 UNCAPTURED DREAM and #6 FABRICATOR will be sitting in that “cat bird seat” looking to pounce. Those two have the tactical edge over #2 STOLICH and #4 MASQUERADE BALL, two runners sitting from further off the pace in Quad IV when making that late run. 

#7 ANNINA DREAMS worked efficiently back in March at the OBS sale though also looked like one that was still growing and could be part of the reason they backed off the published works until June and comes into this event with the consistent drills. #2 MISS MIKOS also picked up out of the sale in April and has a longer worktab into this race and that could be a sign to watch here.

Brian Cook will start a pair of homebred O’Meara runners in this race with #3 BLUESUP GREENSDOWN and #6 EDGE OF TOWN both showing similar worktab coming into this race. Lezcano has picked up more calls than Reyes and that could be a sign as well as the drill back on June 18^th as a potential EDGE.

Boyce will return with the pair of #5 DEVIL and #8 BEEHIVE and those two holding the experience edge over the others, however, still must improve off those races to win. The debut figure for DEVIL was stronger than the race itself and as far as BEEHIVE, she had issues at the start before showing early speed and should be fit coming back from the WIDE DUEL three weeks ago.

Block #4 THERE SHE GOES has a steady series of works with a live rider as Colon is aboard and that is preferred over #1 QUERENDONA, one that looks to have some “faster” half mile gate works though also shows a gap from July to August. 

Splitting the Rivelli pair, #2 WILMA MANKILLER is the more accomplished and her form this season holds an edge over the others that have been racing here this season for the level. #5 VIOLA potentially holds the most upside as she makes her second start. She was highly regarded before the debut going back to last year and had to work her way back around slowly and carefully and for that initial start. She was handled expertly by Mojica and benefit from the complexion of the field. If she is able to benefit from that experience and step forward in this race, she could easily mix it up with this field to compete. 

#2 KATIE M’LADY has been consistent all season and proven under similar stakes conditions that makes her the main player in this race and the horse to beat. Her early speed also makes her the horse to catch as she holds that pace advantage over many in this group. If they can’t run with her early perhaps they can try and run with her late and could be the key for #1 SUMMER DAY one that has been competitive in similar statebred stakes events and those races buried in her form could be overlooked especially as she has yet to run back to a “faster” race this season. 

#1 SWEET LITTLE LISA has been consistent this season and her form should hold as she steps up to take on winners. She has been consistent, shown tactical speed and the ability to finish. She also retains Centeno a rider that found the “learning experience” on debut and returning last month for the win – his presence here is noted as he was aboard #6 FROSTED ÉCLAIR as she was dominant (B+ OptixGRADE and HARD effort) pulling off the 18-1 upset against $15k N2L claiming company earlier this month.  

Centeno was also aboard #4 CRYSTAL SNOW in her most recent start, a solid place B- OptixGRADE effort as the BOS. She has some buried turf form and form at this level keying off the BTL effort and on June 8^th her only race sprinting on the turf. #5 BALI BABY will again be tested in allowance company though could hold an edge with improving form this season and over the claiming group others exiting the open $20k event last week earning a B- OptixGRADE. 

As an individual, #3 STOPSHOPPINGAMY makes a lot of sense in the role as the morning line and projected favorite. She has her biggest challenge in the race shape itself and working a trip – if she shows speed she could find early contention with #1 RUNNERS HEAT, #4 TIMELESS GLORY, #5 FEEL LOVE all front running types projected to mix it up early, and if she continues to have the gate issues that have been present this season she could limit any overall edge in a field with other capable types.

#6 GO STORMIN GIRL is a contender for one of the unluckiest horses this meet. She took a tough beat after a heated stretch duel on June 11^th only to come back 11-days later to suffer a DQ in a controversial call. She returns today with a freshening and some subtle class relief to suggest with everything this meet she is in the right spot to get the picture taken.

#7 PALACE MAGIC has a favorable stalking RunStyle as well as form and figures in line with this claiming level. The timing is the prime concern as she lands here off a 46-day unplanned freshening as she has been entered twice this month and both times a vet scratch unable to compete.

Trip is key for #8 MAYSTART but her win earlier this month was no surprise despite the longer 19-1 odds. She has shown run all season going back to the BTL races in March and coming back with the freshening to the sprint distance. That consistency should carry here and again trip with her RunStyle the main hurdle for Weatherly again. 

#8 MONEY AGENT has shown more run at times than perhaps his running lines and finishing positions suggest. His 79 OptixFIG back on June 9^th stacks up well for this level and since then had a pair of excuses with the Hawthorne Derby placement and TROUBLE in the July 23^rd race that followed. The ride from Hernandez two weeks ago was far from ideal and suggests intent to return with a rider change. Stablemate #6 PIRATE MARMALADE had shown intent to race on the turf and finally getting to the grass lost his race out of the gate 11-days ago making a mess of the break and racing on hold from off the pace not asked for run.

The August 16^th is also the common race for the two Block runners returning here and looking to find the right group and trip to clear the maiden condition. #10 EVEN THE WIND has shown run going back to his debut at Tampa, however, has yet to take that needed step forward. He can be counted on to run his race, and if that race/trip is good enough he could win. #9 BORDER PATROL did not shown much run up in NY against the class where he made sense for the statebred level and the connections landing here looking for class relief. From a physical standpoint he is on the smaller side and could see with the blinkers added today to get him to use his natural (POP) early speed to try and carry the distance of ground.

BORDER PATROL showing more early speed could make things tougher on some others in this field (#1 DARK SOLUTION, #3 PAINTSVILLE) and might assist #7 REGIMENTAL and #4 ELECTRIC CHARGE with their needed trip and racing luck as horses that have run some of the higher figures in this race, however have come up short on class.

First time starter #2 NEWS AT NINE appears live on debut for Davis, a barn capable with debuting runners. They have been looking for a turf route race noting a scratch from August 9^th at HS Indy when those races came off the turf and appears to be race ready as they have shown intention to run on the turf and on this circuit.