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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Thu August 31st, 2023

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Jim's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 2:30 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
6 Fabricator - 3-1 3 Uncaptured Dream - 8-5 2 Stolich - 5-1

With a couple committed to the front in here, it could set things up nicely for 6-FABRICATOR to sit back and rally in the lane. He was claimed out of his last and has held his own in his last two. He's back at the same level and could be a decent price. 3-UNCAPTURED DREAM will need to avoid becoming a part of the pace battle as he figures to sit just behind the leaders and get first run on the late closers. He just missed last out but has continually run well with Giles aboard. 2-STOLICH could be another to benefit from a possible contested pace as he shortens up today. His best races have come at Hawthorne and he may be overlooked a bit off a poor running line on the grass in his last. Let's see if he can upset for a barn that has had a solid meet.

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 2:57 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
7 Annina Dreams - 9-2 5 Devil - 7-2 8 Beehive - 5-1

Liking the workout pattern from 7-ANNINA DREAMS as she comes into her debut. A nice string of quick half mile drills followed most recently by a solid 5/8 work should have her fit and ready. The barn has had a fine meet as this is their first juvenile to debut here. 5-DEVIL has run a pair of solid races as she showed improved speed from the inside in her last. She should be forwardly placed once again and could improve in her second start at the distance. 8-BEEHIVE recovered from a bit of a poor break in her last to run on nicely. She was beaten less than a length in that start and looked to be getting to the winner late. From the outside she may be able to settle a bit early but should be closing well in the lane.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:24 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
5 Viola - 4-1 1 Mysweetannalyze - 5-1 2 Wilma Mankiller - 9-5

May have overthought this but we will see. A good amount of speed in here as we will see how 5-VIOLA takes to the dirt. She ran a big race on the grass in her debut but has worked well on the dirt. Expect her to settle early and rally in the lane. 1-MYSWEETANNALYZE has run a pair of good races to open her career, both while at a price. She figures to tuck in just off the early leaders and should be closing quickly late. 2-WILMA MANKILLER has had a very good meet. She ran a huge race at this level last out and may have the chance to shake loose and never look back.

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 3:51 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
2 Katie M'lady - 4-5 4 Journeyist - 4-1 6 White Lies - 6-1

Only two with speed in here but they are both from the Boyce barn. Have to think they don't both go early, likely leaving 2-KATIE M'LADY to make the top and control the pace. She has been tremendous her entire career and a great fit with Felix in the saddle. 4-JOURNEYIST is the other Boyce runner in here with speed as she may be in a stalking spot today. She did run a huge race last out but isn't quite the same talent level as her stablemate. 6-WHITE LIES is hopeful of that contested pace upfront as she figures to rate back early and run on in the lane. It was a big sprint effort in her last but we will see how she handles the stretch back out in here.

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 4:18 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
1 Sweet Little Lisa - 3-1 2 Move It Baby - 4-1 5 Bali Baby - 2-1

A couple with speed in here as the move back to the grass could help the chances of 1-SWEET LITTLE LISA. While she was victorious on the dirt in her last, I expect she improves off that with the move to the grass. Let's see if she can save ground and run on late. 2-MOVE IT BABY is one of those with speed as she steps up off the claim from her last. She almost held on in that spot and shortens up a 16th in here which should be beneficial. 5-BALI BABY is one that will need pace to chase but she is proven at the distance and has posted solid figures. Lezcano has fit her nicely in the saddle and is back aboard once again.

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 4:45 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
6 Go Stormin Girl - 4-1 5 Free Love - 9-2 3 Stopshoppingamy - 5-2

Tough race as there's not a ton of pace. Hoping 6-GO STORMIN GIRL can rate a bit closer early and come running in the lane. She comes off a bit of a rest which may have been needed but she likes this track and distance as she could sneak away at a bit of a price. 5-FREE LOVE is one who could show speed as she figures to try to shake loose early in here. She's posted some solid efforts while facing tougher and should be on the gas from the start. 3-STOPSHOPPINGAMY disappointed in her last as she was the heavy favorite. She figures to tuck in just off the pace and should be moving forwardly in the lane.