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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sun September 3rd, 2023

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Jim's Picks

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 2:57 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
2 Gold Buckle - 10-1 3 Memphis Prayer - 7-2 1 Blurt - 4-1

Trainer John Haran had a nice priced winner on Wednesday with Not Very Gentle and this horse is very similar. He ran a decent race at this level two back before running a better race than looks on paper last out, while facing much tougher. He could be returning to the form he showed earlier in the year and could be dismissed at the windows. 3-MEMPHIS PRAYER chased last out but lacked the finishing kick in that spot. He's going to need pace to chase as he figures to rate back early and run on in the lane. Let's see how he finishes in here. 1-BLURT has the potential to steal this race on the front end as he comes off a good effort last out. His two wins this year have both been gate to wire as the bug rider is likely to send him for the lead once again.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 3:24 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
6 Dee Dee B - 7-2 5 In Open Court - 6-1 8 Texas Princess - 5-2

Not a great bunch and a horse that looks to be a good claim as 6-DEE DEE B comes in from Kentucky for Mike Reavis. She has run better in her last couple of starts and is fit off some lengthy morning works. Expect her to settle off a contested pace that should come back to the field. 5-IN OPEN COURT is another that will be closing late in the lane. She has faced tougher at Colonial in her last couple and gets the benefit of Esquivel in the saddle. 8-TEXAS PRINCESS just missed last out but that wasn't a great bunch either. She's another that is likely to sit back early and make one move, but with the new shooters in here, I wouldn't be surprised if she runs underneath in the gimmicks once again.

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 3:51 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
4 Rock to Fame - 5-2 3 Maximum Color - 5-1 6 Steeler Mischief - 6-1

A nice bunch of 2yo runners as the horse with a little experience gets the nod. Went to 4-ROCK TO FAME as he comes off a good effort in Kentucky on his debut. He has speed, was pressed in his last and may be able to clear in here. Let's see if the stamina to finish is there today. 3-MAXIMUM COLOR debuts for Robertson as he has a nice workout pattern leading into here. To works are consistent and Esquivel gets the call. 6-STEELER MISCHIEEF comes in from Kentucky as he has also worked consistently into this spot. Every runner that has shipped in from this barn has been well intended as he could sneak off at a bit of a price.

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 4:18 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
3 King Anthony - 8-1 5 Metronome - 6-1 6 Neon Deion - 7-2

A really tough bunch here as any could win. Took a bit of a shot with 3-KING ANTHONY as he debuts for Hernandez. He was gelded prior to his debut but has been working well and runs for an owner that has had a tremendous meet. 5-METRONOME comes in for Harty who has had success when shipping here this year. He flashed some speed in his debut before giving way but shortens up a 16th and should have more stamina for this start. 6-NEON DEION ran a good race on the grass in his debut as he chased and ran on late. He figures to rate in the second flight early and should be running on in the stretch.

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 4:45 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
5 Prancipants - 4-1 2 Command Point - 2-1 6 Stack Shack - 8-1

Once of the most surprising horses this meet has been 5-PRANCIPANTS as she has looked like a different racehorse. The move to the Witthauer barn has helped as she has five victories on the meet. The last was the most impressive as she rated in the second flight and finished well. Quick return but she can handle this move. 2-COMMAND POINT is the one to beat as she has also been solid on the season. She has been favored in her last five and has finished no worse than second in her last four. 6-STACK SHACK was a horse I liked last out and she almost got the job down at 13-1 while sprinting. With the stretch in distance, expect her to show speed as she may try to clear and never look back.

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 5:12 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
7 First Kitten - 9-2 1 Samarita - 3-1 4 Long Tall Woman - 5-2

Many in this group have beaten each other up all meet and the battle happens one last time. 7-FIRST KITTEN gets the nod for me off a solid performance in he last in a race that came off the grass. That wasn't the best AOC $40k bunch but it was similar to this field. She has tactical speed and should be able to pick where she wants to rate early on. 1-SAMARITA has been fantastic recently, winning three straight, the last impressively. She figures to rate close early from the inside but could potentially have some pace pressure early. 4-LONG TALL WOMAN isn't quite the horse she was last year, but she also isn't bad by any means as she has found the board in all seven starts on the year. She got a bit unlucky in her last as she got clear a bit too late but she's another with tactical speed who shouldn't be too far off the leaders at any point.

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 5:39 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
8 Exprompt (FR) - 4-1 9 Dragon Drew - 9-2 6 Lyrical Poet - 8-5

I'm really baffled by 6-LYRICAL POET as he makes his second start of the year but takes a big class drop after just missing for $32k in his last. Why does Ward have him here today. Maybe he crushes the field but I'll look to beat him and go to 8-EXPROMPT on top. He chased in the four horse turf race in the heat last week and battled the entire way. With his closing style, the bigger field helps as he should be charging in the stretch. 9-DRAGON DREW has speed and should be using it to get away from the outside draw. He had Exprompt measured in his last and figures to be a solid threat once again.