Handicapper Tips & Picks

A tricky race to start the closing day card. The race shape is tough to assess with many changes to run in this spot and that combined with the 5.5f distance. Controlling speed could sit with #3 HIP HOP EMMY making her second start off the layoff and wheeling back in two weeks after setting the pace and fading late. #1 GOTTA B KITTEN ME is the lone “E” shown on OptixPLOT, though finds a distance change along with the rail where she will be tested, though not out of it as she looks for a belated win. #7 SUNSET PAYNTER is another looking for a belated win. She has shown run in spots, though not always has been placed in the right spot for her abilities and finding the softest level this season, she should have little excuses here.

#4 DR. BELLA also finds a class change and that change with the distance brings trip into play especially for one that has a pattern of gate/SLOG issues and makes her run from off the pace. #6 EVIE JEAN is lighter on class and found the right group to clear the maiden condition last month. While she is who she is, she fits with this field and as a consistent type can find her way in for a share. 

#5 JAMAICAN TRAFFIC has some buried form here at Hawthorne sprinting and at this $6250k N2L claiming level to suggest she can compete. #2 HOLY IMAGE moved up on the class relief to run at this level in the August 20th common race. Overall this is the level where she fits and while she does not have any strong edge she comes into this race with form and should offer value given the recent running lines, finishing positions and the connections. 

The TACTIC- on #2 SENSE OF SELF has been less than ideal all season and to her credit has shown run with that trip adversity. We shall see what Bendezu brings as he jumps aboard today for the first time and coming back with the shorter sprint distance.

Hugo Rodriguez returns with a pair in this race and keying off recent visuals, #4 GOOD MONGOLIA is preferred over #3 GET NONE coming back in this race. The class drop moved up GOOD MONGOLIA last out and finds a positive rider change as Colon takes over – the rider that was assigned on August 23^rd before the Trainer Scratch.

In terms of the early pace, there are many that prefer to run on or near the lead giving the edge of that group to #6 JUJU’S SPECIALGIRL. She comes back today to the level she dropped into on August 13^th and turned in a competitive effort to move into a DUEL after stumbling at the start/TROUBLE_S. She picks up Esquivel today and seems to further intent for this runner. 

#2 MAGNA MASSA has consistently run some of the higher figures of those in this field and if she can put it together today this is the right spot. She has the tendency to SLOG and trip comes into play following and part of the reason for the minor finishes. At the closing day of the meet they should be all-in looking for this belated 2023 win. 

Better late than never as #4 MARYHADALITTLELAM makes a belated return on closing day. She has some hurdles coming back off the layoff, though at the same time did show she can fire fresh breaking her maiden on debut and could project improvement coming back as a four-year-old. There is also a pace scenario to flatter her RunStyle making a run from off the pace with plenty of Contention shown with the “Fire” rating on OptixPLOT.

In terms of the early speed, things should be kept honest be #5 SISTER KISSES coming off a solid debut win last month at Ellis Park. Claimed out of that race, she will be tested to hold her form and there can be some reservations as it appeared she was well intended favored first out for hot connections.

Eduardo Rodriguez will also return with #1 VISIONISTA from a subtle trip lacking ROOM playing a role in the show allowance finish 11-days ago. She will make her second start (only other time was the $20k debut at FG in December) in for the tag today, though not a "giveaway" at the higher price tag and the timing waiting to make this move in the final day.

The lack of true E/EP types could benefit #1 STAR ON THE MAP one that has been able to show early speed in the past and wheels right back with a significant class drop to suggest intent. In addition to a potential pace advantage and the class relief, he now has some conditioning under his belt and can be upgraded further with the TROUBLE in running.

#3 CHERRY ORCHARD is not a true front running type though has shown more tactical speed at times and that could be the key here with Colon, the place rider from July 30^th back aboard. He makes the shift to Quad I as does #7 ONE ACE that could see him upgraded under today’s conditions though overall has been average (C/C+ OptixGRADE) at this level with his most competitive race this season the $4k claiming event on July 18^th at FanDuel.

The pace (or lack of) could be a hurdle to play against #6 JACKPOT BOY on that fits otherwise at this level and one of his more competitive races this season was at this distance on July 23^rd making a CLOSE X_FLOW following another SLOG, a pattern for this horse. #4 INDIO GUAPO has yet to run that “fast” race, though has some upside as he takes the needed class drop and positive SHORTER distance change. 

#5 CELIA'S CIRCLE projects to be a longer shot in this race and for good reason as he steps up in class shifting to this circuit and comes in with the "slower" figures compared to others. With that said, he is worth a mention coming back from the freshening and July 1st night race over a course with standing water and they showed run/MOVE after the SLOG and on hold (TACTIC-) between horses (TRAFFIC) against/X_FLOW the dynamic with minimal change in running order. 

This is a competitive race and that could see public attention default to #2 SPEED WARNING the new face shipping in from Laurel Park with the barn (same owner) change to Engler. The change in locale could move this one up though as far as OFR there is not real change in this race from his turf races this season and has lacked excuse not to win. Lopez, the rider on August 3^rd had Speed Warning in a perfect trip sitting right off the pacesetter and when the running started late, he was just one paced/PLODDY doing best to hold show.

DiVito will send out a pair in this race and project #6 PLAUSIBLE DENILE to appear the more obvious even with the surface switch, though as far as his races this season he has been disappointing and lacking any clear excuses. To be fair, today’s OFR is lighter than the allowance races he has run in this season and could move up on that alone. His overall form is more concerning than the surface switch and rider change, though those moves at this point do not totally inspire confidence. As far as his stablemate #7 EASY FAST, he is less accomplished though carries upside. In terms of numbers, his maiden 80 OptixFIG stacks up with others in the field and if he is to step up off that figures, this would be the timing. The connections were looking for a sprint race prior to the August 20^th start and off the visual and “placement by default” he physically looks on the SPRINTER side and should move up with that distance change alone.

#3 ON K P is the most established runner at this level, course, and distance though perhaps to a fault as he has run well though even on his best day has had to settle for a minor. While it is capable he catches the right group, time, and trip here, some value is still required on the win end.

Assessing the two recent maiden winners: #1 CONGRATS ON FIFTY came through as the favorite his second start and could gather some intent for turf as that race was moved to the main track. As far as the track profile on July 26^th, the track was playing fast and tough to make up ground on keeping those factors in mind when looking at the running line and finishing position. As far as the strength of that race, Ice Shard (BIAS upgrade) came back to win, though the rest of the field still remains in maiden status and many that could require MCL to compete. #5 SAWYER FOX dominated the group making his return on August 6^th. He is capable of holding his form and even taking a step forward as a lightly raced type. The board should be monitored as the “live” Catalano runners have been heavily represented in the pools this season – even at a shorter price, and “intention” value must still be assessed even as “they” might “knew.”

Hernandez taking back over on #4 TRY TRY AGAIN catches the eye as he has had success aboard going back to the early season efforts and April win as well as the ride from the rail on July 27^th gaining just too late on the PERFECT trip winner and today’s rival, #3 LYKAN.

#6 BLOW TORCH wheels right back to run here under similar conditions though a slightly lower OFR that could move him up in today’s event. He also finds a rider change with Loveberry taking over and could see a more assertive ride, a ride keeping him close to the pace.

#7 CAN MAN DO should also be looking for the lead as that is where he has been more effective and looking at the Surface/Distance Plot could have that early pace advantage. Class could have had him exposed making his return last month off the 52-day break to the higher all around OC$40k event. There was some intent to run in the August 23^rd race and unable to get Santiago that day as he was aboard the eventual winner, W W HOTSHOT, that could have been reason for the scratch and lands here where Santiago can keep the call.

This could be the day for #1 REAL NEWS and for Martinez, a strong outfit that has at times struggled here at Hawthorne this season. He has back class and on current form has shown progression with improving OptixFIGS/GRADES making this third start off the layoff. #4 LAND MARK DEAL also returning from the August 10^th race where he had a big look on the day and turned in a good effort all things considered; and especially considered the poor TACTIC- from Santiago that will quickly see the rider change and return of Centeno today.

Looking outside that pair at a pair that could be overlooked and contend: #3 HUEY ATTACK has a longshot look in this race and could be a live look for the barn with Esquivel taking over. As far as current form, he has held his form though has been overmatched in the races this season and should move up with the class change and softer OFR moving him up into contention. As far as the surface switch, physically he looks on the TURF side and going through his form has run competitive races on the turf – the Dark Star Turf Sprint last year at Canterbury was not competitive enough for the win though the 87 OptixFIG fits here and going back to his other turf sprints out at Arlington Park (RIP) his numbers remained consistent and even recording a 92 OptixFIG in a stakes at Ellis Park.

#7 RACE DRIVER is the “other” Martinez and making his first start off the claim in this spot. He has some strong back numbers on the turf sprinting going back to 2020 in Kentucky and at the FG and that carried here last Fall with two strong numbers earning B/B- OptixGRADE in those place finishes.

#9 LET’S GO ALAMO will find some class relief as he makes the circuit switch from the competitive Optional Claiming events ($80k purse) at Colonial Downs. He could also be upgraded on his current form and form cycle when taken out of his RunStyle on August 17^th into a DUEL and can move into his preferred stalking trip, sitting outside of #5 BOURBON TEDDY and #6 SMOKIN RICHIE especially as they favorably draw outside and reunite with Lezcano.

#2 COMISKEY PARK has found his top form as of late at FanDuel though coming off two top efforts looks peaked both on numbers and visuals coming into this race and should be considered if a shorter price is in play. Value should also be assessed with #8 MAJOR WAGER one that has some back races that put him in the mix, though his current form requires returning to those efforts here to win. As far as his recent races it should be noted that he did have a legitimate EX – EXCUSE in the July stakes at HS Indy. 

#3 READTHECLIFFNOTES moves up as he returns to statebred company and has shown class, versatility, and consistent figures this season to compete in this spot. Esquivel will take over today and could be some intent despite this being the first time aboard. He is preferred in this spot of the three Boyce runners and of the others in this field.

Mare #5 CAT ATTACK should keep the pace (and likely #8 GITA’S LAD company) honest while #4 JEFF THE LION is overall lighter on the win end, he has a solid late kick (Quad IV Square) and could come running late and offer a little more value today than #2 WESLAN and #6 SILVER QUARTERS two with a similar RunStyle and Plot position.

#1 TEMPER TANTRUM is the other in this field that has shown he can compete at the stakes level, however…he is a much different horse on the turf than on the main track and while his turf races fit strongly he has yet to show he can transfer that form to the main track. 

It is interesting to see Erin Thompson ship in #7 LITTLE HOT MESS for this race and could suggest intent today as they pick this spot to make their first start off the trainer change. They were entered and with Perez aboard in the Clarksville Stakes ($100k purse) on July 7^th at HS Indy and ultimately a Trainer Scratch from that event. LITTLE HOT MESS recorded a solid 75 OptixFIG on debut at Keeneland, her only turf start, after setting a Fast early pace, a number that stacks up as the highest in the field.

#8 MADAM BLUE is right there with LITTLE HOT MESS number wise earning a 74 OptixFIG after nearly pulling off the front end upset win on debut back in July at LAD and following that effort was privately purchased and makes her first start from that sale today for Rivelli and Loveberry in the saddle.

Number wise the rest of the field sits below those two off what they have run in their career and this season at Hawthorne. The shift in distance back to a sprint could benefit #2 PACIFIC VIEW one that has been knocking on the door all season. #3 BONITA D’ORO as she was more effective from off the pace making a run in those sprint though as far as class for the MSW level. Class also appears the challenge for #6 ANGEL EXPRESS one that has been consistent this year though must find a little more off those efforts here to get the win.