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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sun September 17th, 2023

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Emily's Analysis

Hawthorne Race 1

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#4 DAWN OF CREATION turned in a solid effort on 9/10 in stakes company and coming back from a common race. The race held #1 LULING CITY, she was not on the level of her competition with a favorable pocket trip and lacking finish. The change in class and start over the course should assist #6 COAL CREEK behind open length 1-9 pacesetting winner, Goomster; and similar for #3 MEMORIAL STORM also with the necessary class change. 

Hawthorne Race 2

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#1 IDEAL’S NICOLE requires a slight move forward though still recorded a solid effort for the level and in line overall visually with #3 MY UPTOWN GIRL. The level is noted as #2 LOOK KIMBO takes the rise off the 9/9 win and smart handling from Cordarius Stewart – driver had a strong opening day.

#6 MARTHA MAX could be overlooked in here as she also returns from the R5 common race; and while she finished off the board, the visuals suggest she has more to show and will find a driver change off a less than ideal trip. 

Hawthorne Race 3

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#8 SHE’S MAGICAL has a slight edge over #5 TELL THE DREAM exiting higher conditioned races and SHE’S has been competitive in those events as well. Rival #3 APPLE VALLEY is not a new face these two met back on July 22nd without much between them. APPLE VALLEY wheels back from the perfect trip last week getting the job done as the favorite and will be tested (and could lack value) today with the slight rise in class and to hold form to pair wins, something she has struggled with in the past.  

#1 FOX VALLEY KIA returns from a solid race for the level and setting the faster pace tracked by a solid winner, Fox Valley Leah. 

Hawthorne Race 4

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#6 FOX VALLEY JULIAN looks as a legit favorite in this race and will look to pair up wins coming off a dominant effort setting the track record last Sunday.

#7 SCRAPPY COMINGUP opened up with early money and ran a game race just getting caught late. #1 MOOSS TRAX has been significantly overmatched coming into this race and his efforts might not hold an edge over his rivals, he fits right in line with them and should find himself more competitive at this level. 

Hawthorne Race 5

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#3 FOX VALLEY TASHA has been knocking on the door in her most recent starts and tough to knock on this efforts as she returns in this spot. In addition, she finished in front of #8 TICKTOCK TICKTOCK on 8/28. Just to her outside, #4 NAE’S RENDEZVOUS also turned in a solid race last Sunday and upgraded setting a solid pace on the lead – a pace that assisted the winner, #6 FOX VALLEY TESSA.

#1 SAGE’S SANDSTORM has not been in the right spot to compete this cycle and finds class relief off a decent run given her abilities making a middle move on 9/10; the change in class and effort is easier to see on #2 BIG FLICKA with SAGE’S SANDSTORM projecting to be much longer odds of the two.

Hawthorne Race 6

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#6 STAND BY YOUR MAN expects to be a very short price in this race and the one to beat.

#ZORA MOON looks to benefit from the class relief last week. The change in class should also assist #2 ILLINI DIVA, one that had a favorable trip. C. Stewart stick with her and will see Seekman back aboard #5 ALLY BABA as she returns from a good effort behind a much the best, Whiskey Lou. 

Hawthorne Race 7

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

The driver change on #2 BLUE DEVIL gives him a look coming back as he was given no chance right from the start on 9/9. #6 AUNT PERCILLA looked tough in that common race coming in with the class change out of HOO and proved that on the track, getting the job done professionally. Looking at the others from the 9/9 common race: #5 LOULITA showed more than #1 LOUZOTIC visually and checks with what shows on paper. 

Hawthorne Race 8

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#1 FOX VALLEY REEVA earned a follow on 8/16 when she broke stride at a time she was making a move and appeared she could have had an impact on the outcome. She returned here on 9/9 and validated herself and moves up in this race she takes on 2yo today, a change from facing older last week.

The driver change is key on #6 YANKEES PARY as she was never given a change and expects to show more in here.

#2 UNHYNGED ZENZERO was close to a fast second ¼ last Sunday and one of a group taking a drop (upgrade #4 PLATINUM SHARK on the drop) to run in this race including her rival from that race, #3 FIESTY VAL turning in a average race though an effort better than #5 ITTY BITTY SECRET. 

Hawthorne Race 9

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#1 SILVERSTONE turned in a BTL effort despite the DQ given the overall visuals and wide trip. #6 ERNIE THE MOOSS was game all around closing on lone winner, Dash Around, and given a look right back today under similar conditions. #5 FRANKIEPARK was part of the incident along with ground loss and projects to improve here. A similar projection can be made for #8 YEAHBOYYEAH had traffic trouble that seemed to get ignored.

#7 VINNY LOU takes a different approach into this race from the others in the R10 common race and off a competitive effort against a higher class (R12) last Saturday – he moves up naturally in today’s event.

Hawthorne Race 11

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#8 FREEDOM’S PLAYBOY is logical coming back from a solid effort and gained group on Gorgeous Big Boy after the wire. #5 FOX VALLEY KODIAK comes out of the same common race and earned a follow with a sneaky BTL effort in his own right.