Handicapper Tips & Picks

#4 CUTTING CLASS was much more competitive on 9/14 at HoP stuck behind horses along the inside moving widest off the far turn with a strong late move to gain ground in a blanket at the wire.

#1 SOME NOBODY picked up the win last week under similar condition with a favorable trip and expects to hold form wheeling back to a similar level as he meets some familiar faces. Coming back from the minors #7 PONDA HAWK was favored and controlled the pace until late lacking finish. #8 SKYWAY GYMMASTER was taken well off the pace and making up ground late upgraded given the effort and trip; whereas #6 FOX VALLEY B GUMP had the more favorable trip, one similar to SOME NOBODY and doing his best for the minor award.

#3 CHANGE THE TUNE has a big look in this spot and at a price. She recorded a BTL effort on 9/10 and came back last Saturday with another BTL effort against the dynamic.

The other logical types should battle for favoritism returning from a common race on 9/10 won by a dominant, Stand By Your Man. #6 GJLINDAGRIT caught wide turned in an honest effort while #7 CALYPSO MOON also game had a more subtle trip part of the early pace when was caught in traffic lacking room at a crucial point of the race. 

#2 FIREBALLS PRIDE was dominant in the 9/10 common race and holds that edge coming back this evening. His main rivals from that event, #1 TRU CASH and #6 SHADY MAPLE ALSTAR fit though must show more to turn the table.

#3 EL CHAMPEE’ON will get his much needed test today in a full field. It was a smart front running win at DuQ on 8/30 however made the lead with his main and only rival chasing throughout as the other trotter in the three horse field broke stride early and was out of contention.

#9 LOUS MANDALORIAN got the setup in his favor to get the win on 9/10 due to a favorable trip and some less than ideal trips from his main rivals that day – projects to be a much shorter price here.

#6 SWAN OF DREAMS is upgraded with the changes (class, driver) made as she returns for her second start this meet.

The race shape could set up #5 LOUZOTIC as she has held her form this season and closed ground (BTL) behind open length dominant winner, Blue Devil last week. That race a common race and slight visual preference over #2 LA LOLITA and #8 LOULITA.

The analysis starts with #2 NIKO MAN the dominant 9/10 winner. As far as the trip he had everything his own way on the lead and in the five horse field, two of those rivals broke stride to assist them even further. NIKO MAN is not a “need the lead” type and unlikely to take that tactic here with others in this field such as #3 GOOMSTER, one that is more likely committed to the lead. 

#9 WHATTA YEAR has finished behind that pair and some others in this field, though visually comes into this race in form on the improve. While it could be a reach on top, he can get a share at a price once again.

#2 PLAY ME ROCK will give up some recency missing the race last out though of the shippers holds the edge coming out of some competitive events into this spot. On the local front, #4 FOX VALLEY GEMINI returns from the 9/9 event and place finish coming up short on the win end as the favorite. He partially inherited the “chalk” due to #6 HE’ZZZ A WISE SKY scratching out of that race late and was listed as the 8-5 morning line favorite that day. 

#7 TALK ABOUT VALOR made a big burst going on to win dominantly over the 9/9 group with some of those rivals back today. TALK ABOUT VALOR has back numbers and class keying off his form from HoP earlier this season with those races translating here and with the HoP shippers coming in for this race.

After pulling off the 18-1 upset last Friday, #1 SCORECARD DAN with a great trip on the day will ship in and look to pair up wins. Taking nothing away from the victory as it was earned, still the trip benefit him and the finish also of importance with the top five together at the wire. That includes rival #3 ROCK PARTY – one that all around was not far off SCORECARD DAN with a wide trip as the winner made the first move and 6^th place finish does not look as appealing on paper though visually honest and could see more of a price discrepancy today that what is true odds.

ROCK PARTY also shares a common running line with JACK VERNON from 9/10 where ROCK PARTY was a bit outclassed on the day doing his best to hold for the minors and JACK VERNON might have been right in that mix though out of contention when breaking stride as he made his move. Going back to 9/3 JACK VERNON was a strong winner of an event with a time and figure that stack up in here and could be overlooked given that recent running line where he projects to bounce back today. 

#4 WHISKEY LOU is a legit type; she has shown consistency all year and eye catching with the 9/10 win. She was dominant over those rivals and the ones coming back for this race though worth giving a mention to #5 LOUS ESMERALDA and #9 PEEKABOO SAL ones that might not be on the WHISKEY LOU level might get into the mix for a share at double digits.

#6 STAND BY YOUR MAN comes back from the excuse last week (9/17) never in position to compete and her out of contention altered the outcome and race results. Going back to 9/10 she was another dominant winner of that stakes card and looks to rebound here and compete against WHISKEY LOU once again. 

#3 RADIANT DIAMOND looks like she is on a different level than her competition and off her races this season is the main contender today. This is a competitive group where favoritism could shift likely one of three ways and taking a stand that RADIANT DIAMOND is that horse. 

#4 LOUS PRIVATE EYE was compromised by the trip and tactics impacting his ability to compete as the favorite on 9/10. Without showing his best that day and still showing run in spots, they have been waiting to return in this event where he is capable of getting back on track to “run” his race.

#6 FOX VALLEY PARKER returns from that 9/10 common race with a competitive showing and late charge and validated that effort making a similar late move behind front running lone winner, Lous Amazon on 9/16. Value could shift to PARKER over #7 LOTA GRIT keying off similar overall efforts from the 9/10 common race where both fits just making the case on value to separate the pair. On the topic of value, can’t see the case for #9 DEENBO at the morning line from that same 9/10 common race where DEENBO was shorter odds than the other two though did not have much excuse as far as trip and seems like on that might “need the lead” and there are others to his inside that could be looking for that same trip. 

#6 SHE’S MAGICAL is given another look as she was compromised albeit subtle with the trip on 9/17 and given that trip and excuse one that she projects to rebound from and compete here. The excuse for SHE’S MAGICAL benefit rival #8 TELL THE DREAM one that had a bit of a setup and great trip by C. Stewart to pull off the 20-1 upset.

In terms of form lines, SHE’S MAGICAL fits as she has run against and finished in front of #5 ROCK IT OUT this season, a solid type in her own right and listed here as the morning line favorite. Also looking at common races with the other shippers, #2 GRACEFUL HORIZON given the edge over #4 SOUTHWIND MOLLY.

The move up in class for #4 FOX VALLEY CARLIN looks to be a sign of confidence as they make their second start of the meet/cycle and from the 9/17 place finish – the type of effort a “winning” race for the level and not running back to a top that day looks to take the step forward here.

#5 FOX VALLEY OZZY raced a couple events earlier and earned a follow from his 4^th place finish as the trip was far from ideal and lacking room at a crucial point in running getting clear and showing and extra gear to make up ground late. #6 LUCKONURSIDE was longer than FOX VALLEY OZZY on the day and based on the morning line looks similar this evening despite LUCKONURSIDE coming back from an honest and even BTL effort in his show finish for the level.

Looking to make some noise in their seasonal HAW debut: #8 MR CHARISMA might overall be a “faster” horse than #9 HELLO SWEETIE BOY (one that does hold local experience) though will be tested that MR is back to his top form from earlier this season at HoP – those races can make him a tougher rival today. #10 STICK WITH CRAMER is lighter than that pair shipping in from Aces though in a good spot today to get a start and figure out where to go forward.

#7 LEGAL LIAR will also take a step up in class and must prove he can handle this level of competition though cannot fault the connections for messing around and finding out after he dominated by open lengths and spaced out the field on 9/15. 

#2 MARSHALL MALONE did not record the “fastest” time on 9/9 though visually dominant and has recorded “faster” times and figures that make him a main contender and solid in his role as the morning line favorite.

#3 LUCKYCHRIS comes into this race with solid form this season and looks to be using this circuit and subtle class change to find the right spot for him to return to winning ways looking for that second “1” this year.

Some price compensation is required on #7 M I ROCKIN, a dominant 9/15 winner though number wise has yet to run as “fast” as some of today’s rivals. There is some projection as he can step forward as a lightly raced sophomore that does appear to hold upside. #4 FARMERS ONLY has been fine this season though without any real excuse coming up shorter on the win end and is one that tends to find public attention. As far as class #5 MR NUTTIN NICE is right on is level of FARMERS ONLY without much between them on their current form and likely much longer of the two today.