Handicapper Tips & Picks

RACE 7 - PHOENIX (G2): This is the type of race from top to bottom where a case can be made for all in the field and capable on their best day. That comes into play with the more "obvious" types coming off recent wins or in-the-money finishes as well as the runners returning today off longer layoffs when assessing the field looking for the horses that can be sitting on their "best day" part of their form cycle. Pace is key here as well as there is no true "E" need the lead type and tactical/positional speed looks to be necessary.

#3 SIBELIUS fits those factors as a horse with some recency, tactical speed and given the recent finishing positions and the connections (public fancied the names they are more familiar and comfortable with) should hold the double digit morning line odds. He is also a true 6f horse where he has done his better running and given some upgraded from the races since returning from Dubai. He was giving up recency catching a solid group in the Aristides at Churchill in June, a stronger group that included Gunite near miss away from pairing G1 wins. SIBELIUS took the trip across the country and caught another solid field in the Bing Crosby (G1) where he was caught WIDE chasing a solid pace. He should be handled more assertively today with Saez taking over and using his early speed something that was to his detriment in this event last year finishing fourth while trying to rate though a WIDE trip. 

RACE 8 - Jessamine (G2): #5 TOUPIE showed a lot of talent on debut after making contact with the gate rushed up into a duel, staying on as the "BOS" going clear from that rival and the others in the field strongly to the wire and under a strong hand ride - rider showing not going to the stick. She was brought back after a two month freshening to the turf and stakes company last month at Colonial turning in a solid effort off the bench and clear place behind the pacesetting 1-5 chalk winner, No Nay Mets. That stakes race has held form with four horses running back and three of those next out winners. As far as intent, the turf sprint race was likely a starting point for TOUPIE coming back in this later part of the season and perhaps  this stakes race in particular as the intended goal stretching her out and looking to earn black-type. She is listed at the 20-1 on the ML, something that would be severe overlay and especially with Prat aboard for Motion is unlikely to be anywhere near that number.