Handicapper Tips & Picks

RACE 2 – SANDS POINT (G2):

#4 BE YOUR BEST looks well-intended as she returns from the 56-day freshening to Belmont Park and reuniting with Franco. She holds a class edge over many of today’s rivals, while still looking for that first graded stakes win. To her credit she has been competitive under similar conditions and coming up a beat short in the Wonder Again (G2) behind Prerequisite, the front running Chad Brown filly that came back in the Belmont Oaks (G1) with tough beat finishing second. BE YOUR BEST had some excuses built into the Belmont Oaks (G1) given the longer than preferred 10f distance and taken out of her natural RunStyle when sent into a duel. She rebounded with a game effort in the Del Mar Oaks (G1) given the WIDE trip, a tough trip over the Del Mar turf course. Her form was flattered when the winner of that race, Anisette, came back against older in the Rodeo Drive (G2) last week with a solid place finish and Ruby Nell (4^th) came back to win the Unzip Me stakes on October 4^th at Santa Anita. 

Many will return from the 10/8 common race where the race shape changed with two main contenders compromised at the start. #10 RADIANT DIAMOND being the main threat as she was eliminated at the break and showed run to try and get into the race. She is upgraded off that excuse, her overall ability as well as the 9/24 common race when arguably “best” finishing together at the wire with perfect trip, #1 BELL BOOTS.

#6 FOX VALLEY SHANIA is tough to keep making excuses for as she lost her race by her own doing on 9/24 and 10/8 at the start, though if she can keep it together and on stride she fits with this group. Some intent could be in play today as a driver change will be made to A. Bender, a change that at the least shows intent.

#1 BELL BOOTS has benefit from favorable trips and could find another one today with the inside post. She comes into this race in form, though has been flattered by those trips and looks to be much shorter odds today than she has been this meet. A couple other “longshot” types from 10/8: #7 ZENA LOU with a wide close; and #9 SHESPERTIFULIKPERT making a BTL move through traffic to earn show. 

#2 APPLE VALLEY was all class this season and returning from the 10/8 common race as she is tough to knock right back in against some of today’s rivals. To her outside, #3 DOUBLE PARKED is upgraded with the draw change as she was forced to rush from the 8 post and set a solid pace before losing ground and was not asked after where a rebound is projected here. #7 FOX VALLEY EXPLOIT also finds a post position change from the rail last out. While saving ground is often preferred she tends to be outside when in the clear and uncovered and can find that trip here to step up off the 5^th place run as the beaten favorite last week. 

#2 ANNA’S LUCKY STAR got the better of #1 FUNKY WIGGLE last week (10/8), though expect to see a reverse in the outcome as the two return here. FUNKY WIGGLE was giving up some recency into the race last week, should benefit from the conditioning, fitness and show up here with her top form; top form that stands out as the class of the field. 

#2 HE’ZZZ A WISE SKY comes in as the clear cut horse to beat in this race. His early speed is dominant and stands out over #1 SONG CYCLE SENESE and #3 FOX VALLEY B GUMP that tend to have their success on the lead, to try and beat SKY at his game. #4  FOX VALLEY GEMINI has held his form this season and can type and sit the same stalking trip that has been good enough for the place though has been unable to get by SKY late for the win. #5 FOX VALLEY OZZY and #6 GET E UP will look to pick up the pieces late, as runners in form though have not shown the same class and speed as HE’ZZZ A WISE SKY. 

This could be the time for #1 STAND BY YOUR MAN to pop back up this meet and return to the form from earlier this season that makes her a top contender. The driver change was made last week, the common race on 10/8 that should be taken with a grain of salt, not just with STAND BY YOUR MAN eliminated at the break, but others (#2 LOUS AMAZON) in running altering the outcome.

#6 ILLINI DIVA has improved race-to-race and comes into this event in peak form. Her place finish on 10/8 was BTL given the outside post, wide trip, and all-around game behind a perfect trip winner, #7 CALYPSO MOON.

#5 WHISKEY LOU is listed as the morning line favorite and overall comes into this race without any knocks in that role. She has been consistent all season and wheeling back from a dominant win last week – though does have a tougher group here. The place finisher, #8 PEEKABOO SAL figures to be a longshot once again and like the others drawn to her outside, #9 LOUS ENCHANTRESS and #10 GJLINDAGRIT, a minor share looks to be the ceiling. 

Interesting with the driver change on #1 FOX VALLEY JASPER as C. Stewart is not named elsewhere in the race and assistant trainer to Erv Miller, Atlee Bender is assigned. Going back in 2022, FOX VALLEY JASPER was leading the Erv Miller juvenile charge and had some setbacks opening the door for his stablemate rivals, #2 ILLINI JETSET (2022 Night of Champions winner) and #6 FOX VALLEY PATRIOT that show up in this race. As far as FOX VALLEY JASPER this season, he has moved forward with each start and has this massive move. That burst  when timed right he can be a massive player, get the win and has been right there with #6 FOX VALLEY LANDEN, the projected favorite.

Overall FOX VALLEY JASPER has been competitive this season and shown up against many of today’s rivals and for him it all comes down to trip and that right timing all coming together he can pull off that win today. Value should also hold in the race as whole and over his stablemates, #2 ILLINI JETSET and #6 FOX VALLEY PATRIOT – two horses in form and rivals that will try to make things tougher for, #4 FOX VALLEY LANDEN as he is the main Erv Miller threat. #8 GHOST SHARK has not shown his top form here this season that would be required as a main contender, though has those back races on par and current form as a longshot to get in the mix. 

#4 GOOMSTER and #8 NIKO MAN have asserted themselves at the top of this division and much the best in common races with many of today’s rivals. The two have each other as the main contenders to battle against here today. 

The biggest threat to #6 ON HIGHER GROUND is #1 HEATH BAR from the group returning here and from the common race lasts week. HEATH BAR comes into this event with buried form in his past performances as well sneaky efforts from the local races this season. While ON HIGHER GROUND was able to track in a perfect free spot on his way to 10/8 victory, HEATH BAR had a subtle trip with a BTL effort that projects to see him improve today. 

#6 MOPPIES MOOSS has ability and the driver change today suggests intent and the change that can move him forward off his already progressive form coming into this race. He made the list of “horses to watch” on October 8^th, a common race and prep for this Championship race. Visually he has more to show and can turn the tables on some of his rivals this season and this can be the time, place, and price to do so. 

#2 GORGEOUS BIG GUY has led the division this season positioning himself as the front runner (not literally, he can rate) in this race; however, this is no layup as a contentious event that will require a big effort from BIG GUY once again.

The “obvious” main contenders have that look with the recent 1’s and 2’s in their past performances, though overlooked from the finishing positions is #10 FREEDOM’S PLAYBOY coming into this event. The outside draw does him no favors once again, though the morning line suggests some price compensation. The post position was a factor that played against him on 10/6, still to his credit turned in BTL effort (horses to watch) making a wide move and strong late, closing finish behind the clear, GORGEOUS BIG GUY (GBG). As far as FREEDOM’S PLAYBOY this season he was a game place finisher behind GBG on 9/10 catching up and passing him after the wire and easily came back the following week to win on 9/17. He had a legitimate excuse on 9/24 with rough start and making contact with a pylon in running creating a “line through” that running line and earning a follow as he projected to improve and showed that progress last week. 

This is a tough race and the spot where it makes sense to look outside morning line favorite, #5 CHICKABELL on the win end. She has rattled off back-to-back wins though could have peaked in her form cycle as she comes back in this spot. The Husted connections might also suggest a tell in this spot as K. Husted sticks with #3 FOX VALLEY SADIE of the trio of barnmates. She turned in a solid effort making up ground on the sharp front running winner, #6 HYPEYOURBESTIEUP, one that returns in this spot and can be a threat right back.

At a bit of a price, #1 FOX VALLEY TASHA reunites with C. Stewart a driver that has had success when these two pair up. As far as her form cycle, she appears to be sitting on a peak effort – the tactics on 10/7 had her showing more early speed taken out of her preferred RunStyle where she can sit back and make a run, the tactics likely to be utilized here today. 

#10 FOX VALLEY KIA must be given consideration here if anything near her assigned 20-1 morning line. As an individual she has the class and speed as a contender and was clear of #8 MY DADDYS REVENGE, the 2-1 second choice on morning line, in the 9/23 stakes race. FOX VALLEY KIA visually looked like a contender and threat to #7 FOX VALLEY LEAH (morning line favorite and legitimate) on 10/7 before breaking and losing her race. KIA made a couple moves and BTL prior to the incident and giving her an excuse can rebound here. The post is no bargain though likely a factor in the double digit morning line and potential dismissal on the board.

#6 DOLLY MAY seems logical off her overall form, subtle trips and back at the claiming level. While all of those factors can line up today for success, she has been tough to trust on the win end still looking for that first stateside win since she arrived in the summer of 2021. 

Eurton could have a live pair in this race making some key changes: #9 IN YOUR FACE should appreciate the class drop since protected coming back this season and should be at the right level with Hernandez aboard; #11 MAGAZINE looks every bit a turf horse and has not had the chance to get back to the turf since her debut last November. 

The class drop should also move up #10 DIVINELY BOLT as she has sped much of her career overmatched other than catching the right group breaking her maiden back in April. 

#6 FLYNN'S CHANCE has the most upside in this second start. She made her debut back in August at DMR and in a race where the barn had the more fancied, Tamara and this one did not appear anywhere as intended. She still must show improvement though is facing others in this field that have had their chance and have shown their true abilities and leaving something to be desired. 

#4 HULA CANDY has shown more run than it may appear on paper and a shock when looking at OptixGRID (lots of Green) that he has yet to hit the board. He has shown improvement race to race from a speed figure standpoint. His visuals match running a BTL debut and B OptixGRADE second start with legitimate trouble, trouble that followed him over the summer at DMR playing a role in his outcome. #6 LEGISLATOR has been holding his own against winners and even an MTB unofficial winner going back to August suffering the DQ. 

#4 SUPER CHIEF comes back today with a rider change (Hernandez) and looks to be some intent coming off the pair of place finishes in spots where he fit as a contender. He ran the BTL race to just miss off the layoff on 8/11 and stumbled (TROUBLE_S) out of the gate on 9/10 playing a role on the day. #1 COLT FICTION returns to the state bred company for the first time in a longtime. He has cleared this condition in the past and run competitively against a higher statebred class as well as holding his own against open claiming company in his current cycle. He also has legit early speed that will likely be utilized by Vazquez from the rail.

#2 RESPECT THE CROWN gets respect off her debut effort that should see her favored in this spot. #8 DOUBLE BAY projected to improve off her debut though placement and timing played against her running in stakes company to close out the DMR meet. She still brings that upside for this third start. #1 NOT A SINNER is the most interesting of the "new faces" in this group as she makes her local debut, a steady series of works and live rider with Rispoli taking the call. 

#3 CHAOS REIGNS moved up with the much need class drop last month at DMR. He was rushed on the quick turnaround and setting a Very Fast early pace for the distance level gives him a flow upgrade here. #8 POP POP'S RIDE will find some changes here and many to benefit him primarily the class drop and return to one-turn. 

#6 ROSE MADDOX is proven at this stakes level, course and distance. Hernandez was aboard for the BTL (B) effort in the Solana Beach stakes last out though will remain with the other Alexander runner, #5 ROSE DAWSON one that comes in with recency improving numbers and versatility as she shifts back to the turf. 

#1 ORGANIC is just one of two sophomores (#4 CHIMOSA the other) in the field and has that hurdle against older today. Overall she has upside, is two-for-two on the turf at the statebred level and can rebound racing X_BIAS against open company on 8/31.

1-BELL BOOTS-She’s beaten this bunch twice already

3-LOU SANGREAL-Can she steal this on the lead?

6-FOX VALLEY SHAINA-Chance is she can stay flat

7-FOX VALLEY EXPLOIT-Victim of weird trip in last

2-APPLE VALLEY-Won the Maurello prep

8-BOMBAY PARKWAY-Sleeper will fly late

2-ANNAS LUCKY STAR-Slim pick but she will be tough

1-FUNKY WIGGLE-Needed last; been aiming for this spot

5-REIGN AND SHINE-Often a threat

2-HE’ZZZ A WISE SKY-There may be no catching him

4-FOX VALLEY GEMINI-tracks top pick; moves at him late

6-GET E UP-More competitive with recent race under him

5-WHISKEY LOU-Maybe very slight edge

7-CALYPSO MOON-Won 3 of last four

6-ILLINI DIVA-Late move gets her close

4-FOX VALLEY LANDEN=been tough on and off the lead

10-FOX VALLEY LANGDEN-Tough post but last says he fits

1-FOR VALLEY JASPER-Always gets close

6-FOX VALLEY PATRIOT-Can make a race of it late

8-NIKO MAN-Was too far back in last

4-GOOMSTER-won with the perfect trip

10-LOUS ADNIAMO-Maybe best of the rest

6-ON HIGHER GROUND-Makes it two in a row

3-TALK ABOUT VALOR-Couldn’t hold off top pick in last

2-LOUSDOBB-Always good for a share

2-EL CHAMPEE’ON-Left alone on the lead again?

5-FIREBALL’S PRIDE-Moved a little too late in last

4-LOUS PRIVATE EYE-Flies late; can get there

2-GORGEOUS BIG GUY-Slight edge in a toss up

6-FOX VALLEY DURHAM-Daylight wins in last three

8-GUITAR MAN-Can wake back up; don’t ignore

3-FOX VALLEY SADIE-Things seem to set up perfectly for her

5-CHICKABELL-Better post; won five of seven

2-FOX VALLEY TARAN-Tough luck last two; figures with clean trip

7-FOX VALLEY LEAH-Lost only one of 10 this year

8-MY DADDY’S REVENGE-7 of 12 this year but maybe not good enough

4-THE MAGICAL WOMAN-Better than last race; good speed