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Sun October 29th, 2023 |
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Emily's Analysis
Churchill Downs Race 1
Post Time 12:00 PM CST
Hawthorne Race 1
#6 FOX VALLEY CARLIN is upgraded with a slight change in
class and returning from the higher claiming event on 10/22 making a strong
late close. #2 TOOKADIVEOFFDIPPER holds the edge coming back from the common
race on 10/22.
Hawthorne Race 2
#3 FOX VALLEY EXPLOIT was over her head against the group on
10/14 and this is a more reasonable level for her abilities. #5 TELL THE DREAM
comes back from the 10/22 common race with excess ground loss and overall
competitive noting #4 ROCK IT OUT had the more favorable, setup type trip and
#1 LORRAINE SMOKE was able to save ground.
Hawthorne Race 3
#6 TALK ABOUT VALOR does not have to face On Higher Ground
today and holds a call edge in this spot and has been competitive winning under
similar conditions this season.
Hawthorne Race 4
Leaning on two of the three S. Searle trainees with #1
LOUSRAPTOR finding a more favorable spot and requiring class relief from the
Night of Champions group; #5 LOULITA is preferred given the wide closing run over
#2 LOUZOTIC returning from the recent common race.
Hawthorne Race 5
#4 TEETER TROTTER is upgraded from the group returning from
the 10/20 common race and looks to have intent for this second start of the meet
given the driver change. #7 ZENA LOU also finds a driver change in addition to
the change in class where if she stays flat, stays competitive.
Hawthorne Race 6
#3 GET E UP was live and put up a top effort behind He’zzz A
Wise Sky on Night of Champions (10/14) that projected some regression when he
returned in the 10/22 common race and should cycle back to a top here. #5 FOX
VALLEY GEMINI also could be in the right time and place for a top this season.
Hawthorne Race 7
#4 LOVE TAP HANOVER appears live in this spot and with C.
Stewart in the bike. #6 RJ ROCKS was dominant in the win earlier this month and
should hold his form returning here.
Hawthorne Race 8
#5 ICE SPLITTER is deserving of a big look coming rival back
off a BTL effort and against older in his local debut last week – a move forward,
and more tactical speed can be projected. #9 LOU ADONIS also coming back from a
BTL MOVE on 10/22 though finds along with #8 FOX VALLEY CORSO the step up here,
whereas #2 MARIAH LOU and #6 AINT NO MOJO should benefit from the class drop.
Hawthorne Race 9
Sophomore #3 FOX VALEY CAYMAN earned a follow with a BTL
effort parked widest throughout and moves up with today’s class change. #4
MARSHALL MALONE was compromised with the draw and suffered an extra wide trip
two weeks ago at the level. Coming right back, #6 JULERICA finished in a
blanket at the wire last week and BTL effort makes him a player right back under
similar conditions.
Hawthorne Race 10
#7 GRACEFUL HORIZON turned in an honest effort last week
though was slightly overmatched and should appreciate the subtle change in
class. Common rival #10 DANDY’S MMM is given no favors at the draw though did
not have a chance with the trip last week and upgraded here and with the driver
change. #11 JD’S QUEEN LORI also requires some racing luck to draw in and with
the draw does she make the race, though given a flow upgrade coming back from
the common race against some of today’s rivals last week, 10/22.
Hawthorne Race 11
#7 JERI SUE fits here and with leading driver, C. Stewart. #4
GENIE INA BOTTLE was stick on the outside last week and that played a roll in
her trip and outcome where she comes back today with a better draw and can
improve. #3 SILVERSHOE CHIXY gives up recency, though doing back to 10/7 she
did not have an ideal trip and BTL making a WIDE move all things considered.
Santa Anita Race 1
Post Time 3:00 PM CST
#2 MARGOT'S BOY appeared to be "given" the 9/29 race as a PREP coming off another layoff. It is encouraging they return in 30-days given the recent layoff history and with some positive changes such as distance back to a route. A rider change is also in play and noting the front wraps were added last out and a removal could further intent.
Santa Anita Race 4
Post Time 4:30 PM CST
The visuals from #5 BARTON STRONG validate the speed figure from the debut, a number that fits with this field and on par with the lateral class change. The BTL effort all around is noted though both horse and rider (TACTIC-) should benefit from the initial experience.

