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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sun October 29th, 2023

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Emily's Analysis

Churchill Downs Race 1

Post Time 12:00 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson
On current form, #6 BOURBON BOSS figures as the favorite and the horse to beat. Others could step up with the first time starters as well as #7 WISTUCKY one that has been waiting in the wings for a return to CD. Going back to the debut, he had some adversity with TRAFFIC and has continued to keep up the works since that event. #8 CLOTH OF GOLD also could present upside in this second start. On debut, he made a positive PRERACE+ physical appearance and chased WIDE (post 12) behind the eventual open length pacesetting winner, Khanate with the field spaced out at the wire - a common theme during the Keeneland meet. 

Hawthorne Race 1

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#6 FOX VALLEY CARLIN is upgraded with a slight change in class and returning from the higher claiming event on 10/22 making a strong late close. #2 TOOKADIVEOFFDIPPER holds the edge coming back from the common race on 10/22. 

Hawthorne Race 2

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#3 FOX VALLEY EXPLOIT was over her head against the group on 10/14 and this is a more reasonable level for her abilities. #5 TELL THE DREAM comes back from the 10/22 common race with excess ground loss and overall competitive noting #4 ROCK IT OUT had the more favorable, setup type trip and #1 LORRAINE SMOKE was able to save ground.

Hawthorne Race 3

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#6 TALK ABOUT VALOR does not have to face On Higher Ground today and holds a call edge in this spot and has been competitive winning under similar conditions this season. 

Hawthorne Race 4

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Leaning on two of the three S. Searle trainees with #1 LOUSRAPTOR finding a more favorable spot and requiring class relief from the Night of Champions group; #5 LOULITA is preferred given the wide closing run over #2 LOUZOTIC returning from the recent common race. 

Hawthorne Race 5

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#4 TEETER TROTTER is upgraded from the group returning from the 10/20 common race and looks to have intent for this second start of the meet given the driver change. #7 ZENA LOU also finds a driver change in addition to the change in class where if she stays flat, stays competitive. 

Hawthorne Race 6

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#3 GET E UP was live and put up a top effort behind He’zzz A Wise Sky on Night of Champions (10/14) that projected some regression when he returned in the 10/22 common race and should cycle back to a top here. #5 FOX VALLEY GEMINI also could be in the right time and place for a top this season.

Hawthorne Race 7

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#4 LOVE TAP HANOVER appears live in this spot and with C. Stewart in the bike. #6 RJ ROCKS was dominant in the win earlier this month and should hold his form returning here. 

Hawthorne Race 8

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#5 ICE SPLITTER is deserving of a big look coming rival back off a BTL effort and against older in his local debut last week – a move forward, and more tactical speed can be projected. #9 LOU ADONIS also coming back from a BTL MOVE on 10/22 though finds along with #8 FOX VALLEY CORSO the step up here, whereas #2 MARIAH LOU and #6 AINT NO MOJO should benefit from the class drop. 

Hawthorne Race 9

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Sophomore #3 FOX VALEY CAYMAN earned a follow with a BTL effort parked widest throughout and moves up with today’s class change. #4 MARSHALL MALONE was compromised with the draw and suffered an extra wide trip two weeks ago at the level. Coming right back, #6 JULERICA finished in a blanket at the wire last week and BTL effort makes him a player right back under similar conditions.

Hawthorne Race 10

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#7 GRACEFUL HORIZON turned in an honest effort last week though was slightly overmatched and should appreciate the subtle change in class. Common rival #10 DANDY’S MMM is given no favors at the draw though did not have a chance with the trip last week and upgraded here and with the driver change. #11 JD’S QUEEN LORI also requires some racing luck to draw in and with the draw does she make the race, though given a flow upgrade coming back from the common race against some of today’s rivals last week, 10/22. 

Hawthorne Race 11

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#7 JERI SUE fits here and with leading driver, C. Stewart. #4 GENIE INA BOTTLE was stick on the outside last week and that played a roll in her trip and outcome where she comes back today with a better draw and can improve. #3 SILVERSHOE CHIXY gives up recency, though doing back to 10/7 she did not have an ideal trip and BTL making a WIDE move all things considered. 

Santa Anita Race 1

Post Time 3:00 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#2 MARGOT'S BOY appeared to be "given" the 9/29 race as a PREP coming off another layoff. It is encouraging they return in 30-days given the recent layoff history and with some positive changes such as distance back to a route. A rider change is also in play and noting the front wraps were added last out and a removal could further intent. 

Santa Anita Race 4

Post Time 4:30 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

The visuals from #5 BARTON STRONG validate the speed figure from the debut, a number that fits with this field and on par with the lateral class change. The BTL effort all around is noted though both horse and rider (TACTIC-) should benefit from the initial experience.