Handicapper Tips & Picks

#2 CASHMEUP takes the obvious drop to compete in this spot though also coming back from a maybe a less obvious trip last month. He had some legit trouble, showing run in spots and given the layoff history, the connections likely have this one where he can pick up that win even if it means the claim. 

Willing to take a swing against #6 SHOWGIRL LYNNE B unproven on the dirt and taking a big drop in class. #4 SONADOR holds some buried form and should hold value given the connections. #3 SHIP IT was stuck with the WIDE trip behind #2 YOLANDA WHO coming back from the common race last month and SHIP IT should be the higher of the two and could also find the more favorable trip in today's dynamic/track. 

#4 SHORTLIST appeared intended here on 9/30 with the class change though the timing and trip played against him. He has been freshened 40-days since that race and returns with a rider change as well to further intent. 

Asmussen shows up with a pair first off the claim, #5 HUGE BIGLY projects to be the shorter of the two and even could be favored in this race coming off the win and big figure last month. That effort was a new top and could see some regression giving preference to #1 CODE RUNNER overall and for this race shape. #7 KATTATH is likely to be taken as the alternative in this race and fits at this claiming level and given the stretch out and outside post should be forward right from the jump and mixing it up with HUGE BIGLY. 

#1 LUNDBERG is logical back at this maiden claiming level, one he has yet to clear though has run those "winning" type races and those efforts give him the edge over others that have run under similar conditions. #7 CITY OF LOVE has yet to run as "fast" though brings upside making his second start off the layoff and the connections making the right move with the class DROP. Of the first time starters intent could be the edge for #8 OFFICER QUIGLEY noting he was entered at this maiden claiming level here at CD back in May. Unable to make that race for whatever reason required, he comes back with a local worktab and solid local rider. 

#7 GASLIGHT DANCER is logical though not very exciting at the projected short price, favored in this race. #4 MOUNSIEUR COCO might drift off the morning line given the connections even though they are coming off a solid effort and place finish in the common race last out at Keeneland. #6 SON OF A BIRCH could come down from their morning line and does appear intent showing up on this circuit and shorter sprint distance. Their effort in the Mahoney earned a solid 85 OptixFIG, a number on the lower end of par, though still competitive with a wide trip. 

This is the type of race where value is present with #10 BEAR RIVER assigned the morning line favorite. While he is exiting stakes races, his overall visuals were not to that level and even the MSW in his debut. He has more to show overall though not one that is appealing in this race at a shorter number. That opens the door for a first time starter to jump up or even give the edge on recency to #7 SALMING with the BTL effort that followed the slow start from the rail last month at KEE. 

#5 BLUE KENTUCKY found the trip here under similar class, surface/distance conditions to win here in September. All things considered he was a little lucky that day with the ride and sitting in the right place and time to hold in the BLANKET finish at the wire. With that race under his belt and protected last month at the shorter distance and WIDE trip should be sitting on a peak effort returning here and in this third start of the cycle. 

#10 PARCHMENT PARTY was given top billing when he was entered in the Street Sense (G3) stakes on 10/19. The off track might have played a role in the decision to scratch and with the eligibility this spot makes as much sense. Going back to his debut, the manner he handled himself on debut looked like a seasoned professional racehorse. He came out on the track making a positive PRERACE+ appearance, a trait for B. Mott runners. His in-running performance was just as eye-catching overcoming a rough/TROUBLE_S start (something of note as he can rate tactically, not a confirmed closer as the running line might suggests) showing some GRIT making a MOVE through a tight spot along the inside and continued to run on/GALLOP+ after the wire. He is already experienced over today's course and distance and has remained at CD since. 

The "obvious" runners, #1 KING'S SECRET, #5 SPARTAN QUEEN and #8 LADY CLAYPOOLE have the edge over many in this field and could just catch the right group. Looking to get creative, #9 NOBLE BERNADETTE comes out of a race back in September at KY Downs, that has held form while not overly productive. She could present upside as a lightly raced type along with the barn change. #10 MILAN MISCHIEF might also be one we have not seen the best of yet. She has shown improvement number wise race-to-race and makes her second start off the layoff. Going back to the October 1st race, she made a positive PRERACE+ appearance on the track and was compromised at the GATE/SLOG and found herself further against the dynamic/X_FLOW and overall can IMPROVE.