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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Fri November 10th, 2023

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Emily's Analysis

Churchill Downs Race 9

Post Time 4:05 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#2 BRIGHT SPARK could be overlooked off the recent running lines and finishing positions. He is more than fair value at the 8-1 ML keying off the BTL effort under similar N2L conditions at KEE on 10/19 as well as the B- OptixGRADE at CD in September. 

Del Mar Race 1

Post Time 2:30 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#2 LEOPARDESS has been racing over her head since the HS Indy maiden win and showing up here for a tag, is the right move and in the right hands with Prat aboard. Looking at the local runners, #4 MAGAZINE projected to move up on the TURF and did just that however was stuck with the WIDE trip last month at SA. #5 VIOLET STORM turned in a competitive B- OptixGRADE effort at the level here at Del Mar on 9/4 - at the time she was coming off the layoff and for different connections, though getting back to that effort makes her a fit once again. 

Del Mar Race 2

Post Time 2:59 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

All of the runners in this field with experience have come up short at the level including #2 HALO UNCLE even with the SETUP trip on 10/20 to open the door for a new face and appears intent for #3 EDDIE'S WAVE for Hollendorfer with assertive rider Maldonado aboard. 

Del Mar Race 3

Post Time 3:29 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#5 JULIA'S DREAM returns to the course and distance of her dominant debut win back in August. #4 CHEEKY GAL is softer number wise though from a physical standpoint appears on the TURF side and makes her grass debut here. 

Del Mar Race 4

Post Time 3:59 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#8 INDISPENSABLE has the local DMR experience going back to the debut and two-turn distance experience in the American Pharoah (G1) showing some run in spots. #6 BARTHOLDY also showed run (WIDE MOVE) in his debut back on 9/30, a race run over a poor and drying out race track. #5 DUCCIO has the route experience albeit over the turf, though off the visuals showed interest and against the race shape with the top two forwardly placed and finished 1-2. #9 COACH PRIME also with that two-turn experience shifts to the main track and flattered from the 10/7 event with Lord Bullingdon coming out of that race (a 5th place finish) to win the Qatar Mile on the BC undercard.  

Del Mar Race 5

Post Time 4:29 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Going off established form, #10 SMOOTH SALUTE has recorded some of the higher figures in the field and taking the class drop appears logical; #3 ST IGNACIO has moved up with the class drop in his limited MCL starts and fits on that front in this race. 

#7 AUTOLINE also can improve making their second start in for the tag and coming back from a poor trip from start to finish. Similar upgrade for #8 PINEHURST one that looks to need the drop and also slightly shorter than the 9f on 10/14. 

Del Mar Race 6

Post Time 4:59 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#1 LADY MARYANN has been able to show early speed and will require her to do so to compete here with the rail draw and today's race shape. She has upside in this current form cycle as well as form this level keying off the B OptixGRADE fresh off the layoff in September and can cycle back to a top here. #3 BELLA RENELLA looked to need and given the race coming off the layoff just under two weeks ago. The timing wheeling back for this race suggests intent and should be sitting on a peak effort, one she will require for this higher OC level.  #2 WISHTHEYALLCOULDBE has been a little fortunate in terms of trip and while she has been competitive at the level, the barn change is notable with Glatt the previous trainer "hot" coming off the recent trend. 

Del Mar Race 8

Post Time 5:59 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#7 ZE'BUL was given a look under similar conditions last month at Santa Anita and similar on 11/2, however unable to draw into that event. His B- OptixGRADE effort was stronger than the 5th place result and compromised with the SLOG, TACTIC- showing run with a WIDE MOVE to finish in a blanket for minors behind the open length winner. As far as today's race he has the rider change to Hernandez, fitness in this second start of the cycle and route experience over both surfaces.