Handicapper Tips & Picks

#3 FAMILY FACTOR should be sitting on a tp effort and number right in line with main rival #4 DUNPHY. The change in class (drop) and distance (SHORTER) are key for FAMILY in addition to the current form cycle pattern and live connections. 

#3 SET THE PACE has form and back class to fit at this level. As far as intent, the connections both current and prior have tried to keep her protected and the shift to run for the tag in claiming company suggests intent looking to place where she can win. 

#4 KENTUCKY BOURBON made the shift to claiming N2 company with the move out went to show intent for the connections. While that intent was in play his pattern of breaking slow and recent two turn distance race played against him. The move back to this circuit, one turn distance and track profile should benefit here. Value is still required for a horse that does have the tendency to break slow and trip dependent. 

#8 THE BIG BANASHEE is a "wild card" on current form though if they are to pop with a top effort this would be the time and place. There looked to be intent with the drop in class for the second start here at CD in September though compromised by the legit stumble (TROUBLES+) at the start and from off the pace chased the top two that ran forwardly placed and finished together at the wire. She came out of that race with the solid work on 10/15 and has continued to work steadily since. 

Tough to knock #1 FREE LOOK other than the expected shorter number. #5 SAKE should stay in double digits and while she is winless at the level this season, she has held her B- form event with the recent finishing positions. #10 MINT EDITION also comes into this race with buried form and off subtle trips. Class wise (and not receiving a rider change) comes up lighter on class though still could be around for the minors at a price. 

This is the type of race where the shorter priced runners make the most sense when looking for a winner, though at the price and on current form they are not the most exciting to bet. #5 NAUTILUS is a more of a stab, though in his favor is some buried form and the edge on recency with the connections coming right back off the WIDE trip at this claiming level 19-days ago at Keeneland. 

#1 LOVE SPEED should be the clear controlling early speed in this race. He broke his maiden with a lone trip at GP and comes out of a race where he was part of a fast early (and late) pace that should translate for this level, sprint distance and with the rail draw. 

Second time starters #3 MIDCAT (PREP, WIDE NO_PUSH) and #8 CHARLESTON (SLOG, WIDE, MOVE, IMPROVE) are the most intriguing of the of those with experience whereas the others had some favorable aspects in their races and came up short without excuse.