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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Fri November 17th, 2023

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Emily's Analysis

Churchill Downs Race 1

Post Time 12:00 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

The class drop could be enough on its own for #6 WIKI LIO in this spot. As she returns fresh from the 9/20 race, a productive event with three winners since that race. She will also find some changes with the rider and blinker addition also in play.

Churchill Downs Race 3

Post Time 1:00 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#5 PERCEPTIVE had a longshot look back on 10/22 at KEE though given an aggressive WARM_UP might have lost her race before it starter. That gives her the opportunity to IMPROVE from that recent result and build off the CD form from earlier in the cycle. 

Churchill Downs Race 7

Post Time 3:01 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#5 TEJAS showed progression and speed figure improvement with each race prior to the layoff he returns from here. The race he returns from over this course back on 6/3 has been productive with not only next out winners but improving types and overall strong race quality. 

Churchill Downs Race 8

Post Time 3:33 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#9 BOHEMIAN BO makes a belated grass debut as his visuals lean towards TURF going back to early on in his career. He is worth trying to get creative with (at the right number) despite some challenges in this established group to overcome to win though has numbers on par and picks up a live rider in Leparoux to suggest some intent.

Del Mar Race 3

Post Time 3:30 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#3 SWEET MOTHER MARY looks pointed to this second, the second start in this form cycle with the key class DROP. The race she returns from three weeks ago had minimal change in running order following the open length pacesetting winner, Daddysruby.

Del Mar Race 5

Post Time 4:30 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#2 MIXTO could be overlooked and in the right spot to clear the maiden condition. He was given a follow last year and one that looked to move forward with added ground (ROUTER) though had had just limited two-turn starts. Both races were his most competitive to date and has conditioning on his side with this third start of the year. 

Del Mar Race 7

Post Time 5:30 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

The race shape should set up for #3 C Z ROCKET though as an individual he has not run to his top form this year and needs that race to win - and price compensation to play. #1 SIR ATTICUS looks to get back to form here today. Some of his more competitive races and figures were recorded here at DMR at the extended sprint distance. Trip will be key with the post change here and with the rail draw. 

Del Mar Race 8

Post Time 6:00 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Longshots #2 BRAVESTONE and #9 ALPINE THUNDER were given a mention to make some noise in the 10/9 common race and the same consideration here at expected double digit odds again. The pace should be honest enough for both given the complexion of the race. #3 FORE FLAG could also work into a trip, he has run competitive races at this level, though short on the win end and trip will be key with the rider change to Pereira. Trip is also key for #10 BIG COUPE coming back for this second start off a long layoff and less than ideal trip in his return last month. This will be his first start in statebred company since his maiden days back in 2021. 

Fair Grounds Race 7

Post Time 3:45 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#2 MODERN SOUND ran a "winning" race in her debut over the Hawthorne turf on 8/16 and showed that effort was not a one-off in the two races that followed. The outside draw and race dynamic played against her at KY Downs and similar adversity last month at Keeneland showing run in spots and can IMPROVE. 

Fair Grounds Race 8

Post Time 4:15 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#2 SABRA TUFF is upgraded with the significant change in class showing up in this event and first start in statebred company. Since her debut, she has held her form and figures, though has struggled against the level of competition especially when placed against graded stakes company. 

Fair Grounds Race 9

Post Time 4:45 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#1 CLEARLY A TEST is still a maiden so there is some test returning here against stakes company. With that said, today's OFR is not much higher than what she faced against open company at Saratoga over the summer and number wise she recorded OptixFIG that fit today's par. She is further upgraded X_BIAS on 8/30 the race prior to the layoff she returns from here. 

Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Fri November 17th, 2023

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Peter's Simulcast Plays

Fair Grounds Race 1

Post Time 12:45 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
2 West Warpath - 3/1 6 Starburst - 5/2 3 Herd Immunity - 9/5

Fair Grounds Race 2

Post Time 1:15 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
1 Super Wise - 6/1 6 Ioya Again - 8/1 12 Optimus Kat - 12/1

Fair Grounds Race 3

Post Time 1:45 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
5 Bows N Lace - 6/1 8 Moonlight Rain - 9/2 4 No Nannette No - 8/1

Fair Grounds Race 4

Post Time 2:15 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
9 Jackson D - 7/2 11 Mister Banderas - 10/1 12 Pass On Nothing - 10/1

Fair Grounds Race 5

Post Time 2:45 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
8 El Perfecto - 7/2 6 Old Alliance - 10/1 1 Dapper Dude - 6/1

Fair Grounds Race 6

Post Time 3:15 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
1 Olivia G - 10/1 6 Wupkar - 8/1 5 Free Like a Girl - 9/5

Fair Grounds Race 7

Post Time 3:45 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
2 Modern Sound - 8/1 4 Tipsy Runner - 5/1 8 Ragtime Lady - 8/1

Fair Grounds Race 8

Post Time 4:15 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
1 Louisiana Liberty - 15/1 6 A G's Charlotte - 5/2 5 Free Like a Girl - 2/1

Fair Grounds Race 9

Post Time 4:45 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
5 Diamond Deal - 5/1 8 Tommie G - 8/1 11 Emily's Bullet - 9/2

Horseshoe Indy Race 1

Post Time 12:50 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
3 Tiger Paw [IRE] - 9/5 9 Some R Blessed - 5/1 2 Drama Critic - 7/2

Horseshoe Indy Race 2

Post Time 1:19 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
3 Good Forever - 9/2 1 Barefootbootlegger - 6/1 6 Cielo Azul - 5/2

Horseshoe Indy Race 3

Post Time 1:49 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
9 Whiskey Lullaby - 3/1 6 Jenny Lind - 7/2 10 Gray Vixen - 8/1

Horseshoe Indy Race 4

Post Time 2:19 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
8 Honey Red - 9/2 3 Shanghai Express - 7/2 6 Hurricane Lassie - 7/5

Horseshoe Indy Race 5

Post Time 2:49 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
9 Imaboutago [IRE] - 5/1 3 Piccante - 6/1 4 Whatta World - 7/2

Horseshoe Indy Race 6

Post Time 3:20 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
2 Never Have I Ever [IRE] - 3/1 8 Grand Hideaway - 5/1 9 Dragon Drew - 9/2

Horseshoe Indy Race 7

Post Time 3:51 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
1 Mosaico Man - 7/2 2 Gamblers Tail - 5/1 3 Union Run - 6/1

Horseshoe Indy Race 8

Post Time 4:22 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
8 Metallic Man - 3/1 3 Oro Azteca - 20/1 9 Victor's Deal - 5/1

Horseshoe Indy Race 9

Post Time 4:52 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
8 Mister Macho - 8/5 5 Sunsign - 9/2 7 Epic the Legend - 6/1

Horseshoe Indy Race 10

Post Time 5:22 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
6 Infinity's Warrior - 8/5 8 Mo Angell - 6/1 3 Gun Buddy - 7/2

Horseshoe Indy Race 11

Post Time 5:51 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
1 Ardis - 2/1 2 Dash of Simplicity - 3/1 4 Amazingness - 9/2

Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 1

Analysis by Peter Galassi

P 3 Watch Her Dewitt 6 Godiva Shadow Girl 2 Premier Delight

Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 2

Analysis by Peter Galassi

P 2 Dakota Shadow 1 Dragon Terror 8 Waitinonawoman

Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 3

Analysis by Peter Galassi

P 7 Glenboro 1 Siri Seelster 5 D A Temptation

Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 4

Analysis by Peter Galassi

T 8 Phoenix 7 All Wrapped Up 6 Derf Hanover

Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 5

Analysis by Peter Galassi

P 5 Honey Love 6 Pocahontas Du Lac 4 Starlight Dancer

Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 6

Analysis by Peter Galassi

T 8 Jayport Roadrunner 4 Jack Fire 1 Hey Ralphie

Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 7

Analysis by Peter Galassi

P 9 Beach Moment 5 Beyond The Sea 3 Sunshine Sally

Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 8

Analysis by Peter Galassi

P 9 Momentary Control 8 Shes Got It All 7 Velvet Stinger

Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 9

Analysis by Peter Galassi

P 7 Prohibition Legal 6 Silver Label 5 Huntress

Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 10

Analysis by Peter Galassi

T 2 Ima Standup Guy 6 Ezra 9 Southwind Caeser

Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 11

Analysis by Peter Galassi

P 9 Need To Breathe 1 Horizontal 2 Chiefs Dream Girl