Handicapper Tips & Picks

Tough to know in advance if this race stays on the turf and if so #2 MACKILLOP is upgraded from the BTL/B OptixGRADE - with #9 CLYDE'S GOT A GUN making a CLOSE behind him on 10/19 at KEE. The return to the TURF should benefit #11 GRAND ASPEN, though one that appears short on the morning line without much of an edge over the others. #4 REDEEMER could be entered hoping the race moves to the main track and showed a sneaky good CLOSE (and massive GALLOP+) in his return last month at KEE. 

#3 SWEET GAL OF MINE have been game in defeat and tough to knock earning a B OptixGRADE in both place finishes. Second time starter #8 #6 AUNT FANNIE wheels back from that 10/21 common race with a middle MOVE earning a B- OptixGRADE and holds potential upside. #10 LEMON MUFFIN caught the eye with the PRERACE+ visuals on 11/2 and ran to it though much like the debut SLOG, has the pattern of gate issues to still overcome. 

#9 STAGE RAIDER was given a "longshot" look in the BC Dirt Mile (G1) though he did not handle the race track. That was observed visually (NO_HANDLE) and noted by trainer, DeVaux and could be further intent as they wheel back in 20-days for this race and comes in with a local work at Keeneland on 11/18 to suggest he is no worse for the wear and still holding his form. One of the angles in play for BC was isolating his two-turn form and does return here to that type of route distance.

The surface switch is an unknown for #3 ANIMAL FRIES, though she finds a positive distance change to the ONE_TURN and requiring the SHORTER distance that has been projected for her to compete. 

#1 PERFECT FLIGHT seemed to be given the start last month without much intent on 10/29 other than fitness returning from the two month break and ship back to California. He had buried form  (https://hawthorneracecourse.com/handicapper-picks/daily-tip/2023-07-30/?category=Carryover+Strategies) heading into the 7/30 win at 10-1. The win that day forces the connections to run for the $80k tag today in order to keep eligibility. 

Sadler returns with a pair in this race and with contrasting RunStyles. From the outside #7 MCLAREN VALE should be forward from the jump and one of a few in this field that project to be contesting the early pace. That scenario should assist #2 HEYWOODS BEACH as he returns from the layoff and mile distance. Rispoli back aboard could be the tell and intent as he has been aboard with success in the past. 

Eduardo Rodriguez has sent out some live runners to start the meet and returns with a pair in this event to suggest intent. Both horses complement each other as #2 GALLANT BUCK possesses early speed and from the inside with the weight allowance apprentice rider, Navas, could be the speed of the speed. He can often "run out of gas" and that is where #5 UNCLE NICK comes into play as one with a solid late kick and will be closing late. 

Trainer E. Rodriguez comes right back with #6 REGIMENTAL one that will return to the claiming level similar to where he was claimed back in May and combining that effort with his turf form, he should be in the right spot here. #1 MOESAHANDFUL also looks to hav some intent keying off his form from earlier this year. The connections wanted the turf (physically looks TURF) for his second start and despite the race moving to the main track, he improved his figure. A similar "second off" pattern comes into play and the drop is reasonable for his abilities. Similar intent could follow #5 PROFESSOR HIGGINS another that was entered for the turf here last meet - scratch when the races came off-the-turf on 3/19. That scratch is worth noting in terms of timing as well and prior to the layoff returning in April at HS Indy. There could have been intent there, however that was cut short when he stumbled out of the gate and bumped hard (TROUBLES+) before chasing WIDE - creating an excuse on the day and potential reason for the layoff that followed. . 

A change of trend with trainer B. Calhoun to start the meet as many of their runners have been well-supported on the board and did not run to expectation. That is noted here as they send out #6 CAJUN CRAZY, the 5-2 morning line favorite. #8 GO BROTHER GO has been able to fire fresh off the bench and also holds a win over this course and distance.