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Sun November 26th, 2023 |
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Emily's Analysis
Churchill Downs Race 1
Post Time 12:00 PM CST
On debut #3 DANCING NOAH made a PRERACE+ appearance on the track and less than ideal TROUBLE_S/SLOG and WIDE trip that followed. The return here with the class drop should move them up naturally and noted rider upgrade. A couple of horses from that 10/29 common race returned in a MSW on Wednesday and while they did not win, they held their form.
Churchill Downs Race 2
Post Time 12:28 PM CST
The lone "B" OptixGRADE in the field sits with #3 ROSELEE MAY. She was upgraded off the debut racing X_BIAS at KYD and made a strong CLOSE on the "lone" winner, Toasted Roll to finish in a tight photo last month.
Churchill Downs Race 3
Post Time 12:56 PM CST
McPeek wheels right back with #2 DEAR LADY in 10-days for this race and that coming with a positive ONE_TURN distance change. #7 MIGHTY MADISON gives up recency from the 340-day layoff and might not offer much value. As an individual she has recorded solid figures as a juvenile that fits right in with many in this field and could hold upside with maturity. There has been some intent for this meet and allowance condition when she was a trainer scratch from a 6f event on 11/10.
Churchill Downs Race 4
Post Time 1:24 PM CST
#4 CAIRO STREET has improved with each start and has the foundation under her belt to step up from the maiden ranks. As far as the 10/11 race shape, there has not been any next out winner, but there has been speed figure improvement and form held. The form from the Jessamine (G2) also has held and that along with the class change could be beneficial for #12 PHAROAH'S WINE to find where she belongs. The class change cannot hurt #9 BUTTERCREAM BABE though overall she has not shown much progression and number wise does not look to have much edge.
With the race as its drawn the pace should be honest with many that have raced as E/EP types and some stretching out in distance. #10 REAGAN'S FLAME behind one of those. She set a Fast early pace on debut in a DUEL and has been training forward for this race. While she has overall upside, the distance is a question mark from a physical standpoint. The honest early pace should favor #2 SISTINA CHAPEL one that was able to rate closer to the pace two weeks ago to break her maiden through ran well from off the pace in the two prior starts.
Cox could be looking for the races to come off the grass for #1 ALPINE PRINCESS. Overall still need to see where she belongs going into next year though as far as the Alcibiades (G1) the trip and ground loss did her no favors.
Churchill Downs Race 5
Post Time 1:53 PM CST
#4 MUST BE LOVE could present a hidden front end pace advantage in this field. The race shape and pace required for #2 EMPERADOR must be considered for a runner that lacks early speed. In terms of class, #8 STAND FOR FREEDOM has a slight edge on that front and over many in this field.
Churchill Downs Race 6
Post Time 2:21 PM CST
#6 CHARGE ACCOUNT appears logical in this spot. He was freshened off the claim and off a taxing/HARD effort on 10/1 racing protected to get a race under the belt two weeks ago. #7 SHE DAZZLE is less consistent though has some current form and races on her best day that make her a player.
A case can be made for #3 DONYA KNOW IT though still need to see more from apprentice, E. Asmussen as their debut ride on Wednesday left a lot to be desired and tough to back (especially at a short number) until proven capable.
Churchill Downs Race 7
Post Time 2:49 PM CST
#3 ARRO SMASH has improved with each start and progressed since the blinker addition. The 11/2 race was given a slightly higher OFR than today and the race shape was strong, Very Fast early and late.
Churchill Downs Race 8
Post Time 3:18 PM CST
As noted earlier in the week, #2 VESTURE earned follow last month at KEE with a BTL effort and B OptixGRADE. #4 BOWSTREET was caught at the wire after setting a Fast early pace throughout. First time starter #9 SHOSTLY SPITFIRE has trained well over this course and looks suited to today's extended sprint distance.
Churchill Downs Race 9
Post Time 3:48 PM CST
#8 CURLY JACK looks well spotted here in this second start off the layoff and key cut back in distance. He physically presents as a one-turn (mile max) type for his best and has that positive change here. The return last month at KEE appeared a prep and should take a step forward here. #5 CYCLONE MISCHIEF might land in this allowance rather than the tougher stake as he makes his return first off the layoff. As noted in that analysis, the one-turn is an upgrade and he is training well off the bench.
Churchill Downs Race 10
Post Time 4:18 PM CST
#3 KAPUNA will give up recency making this first start back off the 104-day break. He came off a similar longer layoff this time last year and finished third (before rattling off two straight wins) though that effort and number has him competitive here. As noted, he was able to build off the return race with the wins that followed and something to consider and follow going forward.
Churchill Downs Race 11
Post Time 4:48 PM CST
#1 NORTHERN INVADER seems legit in the role of the favorite. He has improved with racing and shown class with a competitive effort in the Secretariat (G2) with adversity and wheeled back with a dominant (B+) win in the Gio Ponti last month at BAQ.
Churchill Downs Race 12
Post Time 5:18 PM CST
#8 MISSILE has not been seen since the debut back in April though showed more run than the line and finishing position suggests and projected to IMPROVE. She will have the chance to do just that and catches and average group where he debut number stacks up as is.
Del Mar Race 1
Post Time 2:30 PM CST
#4 DISCREPANCY had legit TROUBLE+ in their debut over this course in August and off the visuals projected to IMRPOVE. Keying back to that 8/6 race, a race that has been productive with two next out winners and the place finisher, Nothing Like You winning the Desi Arnaz stakes earlier this month.
Del Mar Race 2
Post Time 3:00 PM CST
#1 SANTOS TO WILSON appears well intended as he has been freshened going out first off the claim and Prat named. His form this season as been consistent (EXCUSE 7/21) and competitive enough for this claiming level. Even with the freshening he has more recency than many in this field.
Del Mar Race 3
Post Time 3:30 PM CST
#7 ON PURPOSE looks pointed to this meet and key SHORTER distance change. She has form coming into this event as the third start of the cycle and buried turf sprint form going back to last year including a BTL on 1/29/22.
Del Mar Race 4
Post Time 4:00 PM CST
#5 EL REY DORADO moves up on the much needed and belated class DROP. He has some buried form and figures going back to the debut, the 80 OptixFIG stacks up on par. In the number department, #6 CALIFORNIA TIGER has the strongest and most consistent figures that will likely have him a very heavy favorite. While those number fits, on the track he tends to be a bit one paced and even with the DROP last month, still managed a B- OptixGRADE.
Longshot #4 SURE PROSPECT also takes the necessary class DROP and has shown intent for this meet going back to his debut last summer - showing some run in spots and made a positive PRERACE+ appearance.
Del Mar Race 5
Post Time 4:30 PM CST
#7 MISTER ICEMAN projected to move up on TURF and will get another chance here for that first win on the surface. His form at this level, course/distance is solid pairing B- OptixGRADE from the summer series. He has upside in this second start of the cycle given the 11/5 noting he was unprepared at the start (GATE) and showed run in a less than ideal trip/ride and seems intent with the rider change (Prat) today.
Del Mar Race 6
Post Time 5:00 PM CST
The removal of front wraps could be taken as a positive for #6 PLAY CHICKEN making his second start off the extended layoff where he raced protected for the waiver last month. To his credit he was able to hold his form recording a B- OptixGRADE, a GRADE he has recorded at this N3 level in the past. #7 BUCK OWENS has buried form that fits as a contender and that form over this main track keying off the 9/10 effort and figure in a key race. #5 DEVIL MOON has the ability to hold as the "speed of the speed" though he has a pattern of NO_FINISH.
Del Mar Race 7
Post Time 5:30 PM CST
#1 JENSCO is unproven at a route of ground though handled the turf going back to her debut earlier this year - a sneaky good race given the TRAFFIC TROUBLE and noted GALLOP+ out after the wire. On numbers and class she fits and similar on form coming off the BTL effort last month.
Del Mar Race 8
Post Time 6:00 PM CST
#6 SKINNER does not hold 9f as his ideal distance, though his class could carry himself the added ground to compete in the right spot and might find that here. His two 9f race were contested in G1 company where he might hold the class to compete at that level, though not at the combined longer distance. Both races paired B- OptixGRADE and 99 OptixFIG that transfer on par into this G3 race.
Del Mar Race 9
Post Time 6:30 PM CST
#7 NATION recorded a B OptixGRADE and IMPROVE Projection in his debut last month at KEE and that race makes him a player on this circuit. The move here could be the right one and also a smart one given the turf course at CD (KY circuit) being limited and wanting to keep him on schedule as well as the grass. #6 SEA OF CORTEZ earned a follow from his debut last month and respect D'Amato giving him time to recover off that taxing run with the 56-days coming back here.
Hawthorne Race 1
#7 FOX VALLEY MCKEE makes a subtle class change though
upside off his form this season and second start of the cycle. Fitness should
be there given the extra-wide trip last week.
Hawthorne Race 2
This race is a rematch from last week where #3 DELIGHT MOON
and #5 DANDY’S MS SWIFTY finished together at the wire. Some upside is present
on #1 TIME TO RYDE off her trip and similar for #2 MATTIE SHARK. #4 ADALECIA
also present some regression off the win two back to rebound here.
Hawthorne Race 3
Longshot #2 ERIS has been overmatched all season long and as
she takes the drop today the change should have her on par with many in this
field. She will still require a trip and top effort though not out of it to win
and can get into the number at a big price.
Hawthorne Race 4
#2 JR STRIKE THREE has held his form though has just been slightly
overmatched this month and requires the class drop they find here to compete. He
will require that class edge as he is a juvenile against older. #8 FOX VALLEY
FALCON was just one of two sophomores on 11/20 and while he is taking on some
older today many are similar age and can move up off the effort last week.
Hawthorne Race 5
#8 FOX VALLEY CARLOS is not far off his stablemate #5 DOCTOR
CRUISE and rival #7 MAZIN BLAZIN and expects to go off higher than those two as
value. Longshots #3 HEZARENGADE (Burst 11/18) and #6 ASHLEES SILVER GUY (BTL
11/18) comes into the race with the noted sneaky form to surprise today.
Hawthorne Race 6
#3 VINNY LOU moves up on the class drop and the change that
was projected after the effort last week. #1 PADDY MURPHY was competitive under
similar conditions and similar for #2 FRANKIEPARK upgraded against the dynamic last
week.
Hawthorne Race 7
#9 MOPPIES MOOSS was right there with #2 LOUS AMAZON last
week and offers value with the even money morning line favorite and as an
alternative to #3 LOUS ENCHANTRESS and #4 CHANGE THE TUNE.
Hawthorne Race 8
#7 SHARK SOLICITOR was dominant in the 10/20 common race going
clear late in the pouring rain. He stepped up against older and faces some
familiar faces here and overall in a group where he can contend. He is in for the
claiming tag though the $20k sits clear as the highest in the field.
Hawthorne Race 9
#5 FOX VALLEY NEWPORT comes into this race with buried form
and current form following a BTL under similar conditions last week. Number
wise he is a little softer than rival #4 PLAYTOROCK though showed up against
him last week and those two not to the level of the dominant, Free Art.
Hawthorne Race 10
#4 SILVERSTONE was the value last week with buried form,
form that is now exposed coming back from the 11/18 common race with many in this
field and solid effort from the outside draw. #1 WATT A HARDT showed more than the
line and finish suggests not account for the poor drive and traffic. #7
REVEREND SCOTT could also be overlooked today. He skipped last week and going
back to 11/12 he made a wide move against a tougher group than what he faces
today and should be on this level.
Hawthorne Race 11
#4 MACH POWER had a subtle trip at a higher class on 11/20
and his overall form and figures stack up strongly in this group. His main threat
with similar numbers comes from #6 FOX VALLEY MONACO returning to this circuit
and picking up B. Bates. From the 11/18 common race, #10 WESTERN VINNY is given
an upgrade projecting improvement off the effort last week.
Hawthorne Race 12
#10 FILLISTER PHOTO was flying under the radar before
pulling off the upset on 10/27 and has validated her form since. She is coming
into this race off a new top and running back to that she will be tough again,
though could see regression and also draws outside and loses her regular driver.
Seekman jumps to #9 BROOKE’S OCEAN one that had 11/19 preference and a look right
back as she get the driver upgrade and subtle trips as well as back numbers
that have her sitting as a prime contender. #1 GO WITH FLO should hold her form
here; she has not shown to be as “fast” as those other two on their best day
though her consistency and Bates fits.
Sun November 26th, 2023 |
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Peter's Simulcast Plays
Churchill Downs Race 1
Post Time 12:00 PM CST
Churchill Downs Race 2
Post Time 12:28 PM CST
Churchill Downs Race 3
Post Time 12:56 PM CST
Churchill Downs Race 4
Post Time 1:24 PM CST
Churchill Downs Race 5
Post Time 1:53 PM CST
Churchill Downs Race 6
Post Time 2:21 PM CST
Churchill Downs Race 7
Post Time 2:49 PM CST
Churchill Downs Race 8
Post Time 3:18 PM CST
Churchill Downs Race 9
Post Time 3:48 PM CST
Churchill Downs Race 10
Post Time 4:18 PM CST
Churchill Downs Race 11
Post Time 4:48 PM CST
Churchill Downs Race 12
Post Time 5:18 PM CST
Mountaineer Park Race 1
Post Time 6:00 PM CST
Mountaineer Park Race 2
Post Time 6:25 PM CST
Mountaineer Park Race 3
Post Time 6:50 PM CST
Mountaineer Park Race 4
Post Time 7:15 PM CST
Mountaineer Park Race 5
Post Time 7:40 PM CST
Mountaineer Park Race 6
Post Time 8:05 PM CST
Mountaineer Park Race 7
Post Time 8:30 PM CST
Mountaineer Park Race 8
Post Time 8:55 PM CST
Sun November 26th, 2023 |
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