Handicapper Tips & Picks

#3 GRACE AND GLORY appeared to be given and out for a PREP in the MSW debut last month at CD. Some improve can be projected off the SLOG making a move and finds a change in class on this circuit and drop to MCL company. #5 SPRAT also finds the class change with this second start and had a similar debut trip losing footing out of the gate (TROUBLE_S) caught WIDE and showing some interest with minimal push from the rider. 

#2 DOUBLE GOLD should benefit from the debut three weeks ago and fits as a ROUTER and with the class relief for this second start. #11 CATALINA MOON also looks to benefit from the debut on closing day at HS Indy a tougher spot first out giving up experience over an off-track/WEATHER first out going two turns. 

#4 CRONUS fits this N2 condition and has experience over this course - his place finish and 74 OptixFIG back in March stacks up on par for this level and fits as an alternative to #2 INVASIVE.

Class relief comes into play for #8 CASCADE PARK one that has recency and intent for this third start of the cycle for this spot and drop. 

#7 COMMANDANDCONTROL has TP experience and in those prior starts was in against a much tougher class level than what she finds here and should transfer that form to this more reasonable claiming level for her abilities. By contrast #10 LA TOURISTA also with local experience and appears intent for the connections second off was competitive here last meet in a lower claiming level and slightly shorter distance and should be shorter of the pair. 

Plot gives some upside for #4 LUNAR ICE and #12 SILKY WARRIOR in this race shape with the price noted on the pair without much between them visually both Q2/4 Squares. 

#9 CHASE BY THE MOON also looks well-prepared for this debut and could get overlooked for the connections and less "flashy" published worktab. Watching her train she comes into this race fit and was not set down for her best at times and would not be surprised to see her come out running here. #5 STIRRED UP will make a belated debut and appears well-intended first out. She was training earlier this year with the setback in mid-May and since has been working steadily and progressive with the bullet gate move on 11/24 as part of a three horse drill and looking best of the set. 

#3 BEL ARIA should fit today's race shape and also appears at the right level as she returns to run for the claiming tag today. Her most recent win was over this course/distance clearing the N2 condition for $30k almost a year to the date on 12/16. The connections had considered a N3 higher level allowance on 11/30 and this race is not as prestigious though has a more reasonable placement to compete. 

#2 TOWER BRIDGE is a "flow upgrade" exiting the 11/16 event and finds considerable (lower OFR) class relief from her prior starts going back to the debut. #4 ETHERIC was with the race flow on 10/7 at WO, however was taken out of her RunStyle to sit closer to the pace today. She has been more effective making a late run and should revert back to that off-the-pace trip today given the complexion of this race shape and added ground. 

#8 J W RUCKUS has form over this course and lower claiming level and could get overlooked off the recent running lines and finishing positions to offer the value required to play. #2 PADDY'S HOUSE was off form prior to the layoff they return from here and fire fresh off the bench on 5/3 and a repeat of that effort makes them a contender here. #10 REAL NEWS has back class and numbers that make him a contender, though his current form this year has not been as strong and still looking for the win without much excuse coming back off the layoff. The drop once again could assist though there are still some lingering reservations. #14 ENJOY THE MUSIC is given a mention should they draw in though will be nothing creative. 

#7 UNREASONABLE earned a follow off a sneaky debut trip and projected to IMPROVE going forward. He might still hold that progression coming back from the WIDE trip over an off-track/WEATHER noting the top two raced inside and came back to run well with the place finisher breaking his maiden on 11/25 and the race winner, Real Men Violin finishing second in the G2 KYJC. #13 J BIRD TIME sitting on the AE though worth a mention as they also projected to IMPROVE off his September debut and had a subtle "trip" returning on 11/12. 

Morning line favorite, #9 PROMISSIO projected to IMPROVE off the debut and appears the public felt similar betting him down off the 6-1 ML to favorite returning on 11/4. As far as that race, he did not improve on OptixFIG/GRADE pairing numbers and C+ though should appreciate the added ground. #6 TRANSCENDENTAL had TROUBLE on debut back at KEE and could hold a move forward there has not been many that have run back though place finisher, Raguel did return to win in an off-the-turf MSW at CD.

Mark Casse and L. Machado have started strong this meet and that is tough to ignore as they pair up with #12 IMMORTAL LION for their belated second start. With that said, this one was entered in a $50k MCL maiden race on 8/26 (trainer scr) and has has some gaps in the works since.