Handicapper Tips & Picks

#9 COLONEL BARTON finds some positive changes returning to Oaklawn Park. He has the edge on both class and recency exiting the series of CD races. Going back to 9/24 he turned in a BTL effort with adversity playing a role in the show finish. The rider change is also key especially outside and needs to be assertive getting into the race from the start. 

#1 MOENCHANTED looks well-intended for their second start. The connections like gave the debut last month at CD to prepare for this meet and for the race in statebred company. As far as the first out effort, she broke SLOG had TROUBLE_S and could present more early speed especially with the rider change to an assertive F. Arrieta.  Last year, trainer Ron Moquett jumped out to a HOT start sending out live runners (a trend to follow early this meet) and many with R. Bejarano and noted as they team up here with #8 TWO BELLS making her debut. #5 PREDICTING could also come out live on debut for local connections and project to show early speed under K. Jordan. 

#7 PAYNE wheels right back for this event and returning to Oaklawn Park and main track where he had success last year. He could find a similar pace scenario to the 1/28 win with plenty of pace to target making his late run. #6 AWESOME AARON is not as proven on class though he has races that fit for this level and progressive form in the current third off form cycle. 

Form out of the Mid-Atlantic circuit does not always transfer, though intent appears to be in play for #2 GALERIO first off the claim and freshened for this meet by connections that point to Oaklawn. #6 WARTIME HERO also appears pointed back to Oaklawn Park and given the race off the layoff last month, which he won, though still appears they had intent to run here and in for the tag after being protected. #11 CITY LEGEND paired up wins here last meet and looks well intended returning here fresh for the connections and noted trainer Sean Williams has been a longtime Diodoro assistant. Both of the wins last year were over an off-track but does not need those conditions to compete noting a fast track DMR win over the summer. 

#11 TEXAS TOWN might have tipped his hand with the bullet back in October. This colt had some setbacks in training earlier in the year and after working 10 flat while still figuring things out and growing. The training has been on track with the steady works and pointed for this spot to debut. His work from the gate on 11/4 was sharp he showed solid gate speed and in hand outside his workmate and took over under a hold and looked like he could have gone clear at any point if allowed. 

#5 ASK WILLIE can be upgraded off their debut last month with the poor start and showed run making a MOVE X_BIAS in a race with minimal change in running order. #2 MAJOR MACK worked 10/3 back in May at the sale and still looked green and growing. That could be the reason for the late start and looks as prepared as this one will be off the long published worktab.

#2 ROYAL MEGHAN fits this N3 condition with their most recent win in May and finds class relief showing up here from the higher level $40k claiming races since the layoff return at NYRA. #10 AWESOME VIEW also fits the condition as she is looking for that first win since May. This start is her first off the claim and off a 42-day freshening a change from her prior pattern of wheeling back without much time between starts. 

#3 LICHITA was able to make the EASY_LEAD (slight SETUP as others had trouble) going on to win coming off the layoff first out at Oaklawn last season. She has legit early speed that is likely to be utilized here and needs a similar scenario to play out for a gate-to-wire score.

#8 YOU LITTLE VIXEN was stepped up and in a big way for her second start coming of a debut PRM win to race in allowance company at KEE. The connections look to have intent for this spot and similar condition and could catch a softer (albeit more established) group. That 10/14 race has seen three runners come back to win at the higher level allowance conditions since. 

Much like R7, this race comes up light for the level and for the six-figure purse. That could assist #3 WILDWOOD BYE one that was running in higher OFR events at Oaklawn last season. The 3/24 race is worth noting the poor WEATHER conditions that had the races after hers cancelled. #4 BACKYARD MONEY has the benefit of local experience and turned in a B- OptixGRADE effort at this level last year at CD. She has the benefit of a race coming back from a similar race par last month. 

Asmussen looks to hold a strong hand in this race leading with the more accomplished #10 VALENTINE CANDY. They thought enough off the debut win to try the Hopeful (G1) and reset at KEE with a solid effort in allowance company. They returned on short three week rest in the Bowman Mills Stakes and off SLOG racing evenly in a race shape that did not have any real change in running order and saw the 4^th place runner, Patriot Spirit come back to win the Inaugural stakes earlier this month at Tampa Bay Downs. Stablemate #11 BYE BYE LIAM ran BTL on debut and validated that effort with the 27.7-1 upset MSW win in his second start with the figure improvement, the 90 OptixFIG right in line with the top figure for VALENTINE CANDY.

A couple longshots could surprise in here and get dismissed for their connections: #2 FROST FREE appeared well-intended on debut bet down from the 12-1 ML assignment winning on debut with a WIDE trip over poor (WEATHER) track conditions. His figures is not as strong as others and must improve, though the improvement projection is not out of the question as he returns in this spot a more mature juvenile from that June race. #9 GENERAL SHIPMAN already holds a stakes win going back to the summer at PRM. He was given a two month freshening returning at RP in the Clever Trevor where his trip can be upgraded chasing WIDE X_FLOW and despite the 5^th place result stayed on as the BOS/Best of the Speed. Those two should offer value as a contrast to #1 SPIRIT’S MISCHIEF (up in class exiting potentially weaker MSW win) and #4 MOLLY’S TOWN, one that has some ability though still must transfer his form outside of HS Indy and open company before taking a shorter number. 

#10 HER BEST FRIEND should offer value in this spot and fits with the others in this field off current form. She improved off the debut back in July at ELP on the turf (extreme SPACED race shape) with the WIDE trip last month around two turns on the dirt with a WIDE trip and was flattered as the 5^th place finisher, America’s Vow returned on 12/2 clearing the MSW at Tampa Bay Downs. #3 LITE IT UP LOUIE also could rebound here keying off the competitive effort at KEE, a figure and solid race par similar to today and giving a slight excuse wheeling back in 19-days along with TROUBLE_S in the most recent  11/3 start at CD. #12 IN JUST MY HEELS must improve off the debut last month though did show some interest after being taken back early from the outside draw and returns here with the addition of blinkers, local works, added ground and rider change to R. Bejarano. 

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