Handicapper Tips & Picks

Keying off FG form from last season, #2 MACEE holds an edge over #3 MO SMOKING separating that pair as they make their local debut off layoffs. MACEE also fired fresh in their first FG start of 2022, a 73 OptixFIG and B- OptixGRADE show result, an effort not quite on the "winning" $20k N2L level, though would be a major contender with that effort here. 

#7 I DON'T KNOW EITHER is not as "fast" though should be sitting on her top effort returning for his second start of the meet. The 11/24 start appeared a prep given the placement against open company males and makes the class change here. 

This event comes up contentious for a often common condition. #3 CCED FOR STEPH returns from a layoff though holds form and figures from earlier this year that stacks up on par and could hold intent for the connections and find the right stalking trip. The pace is another factor with many that prefer to race on or near the lead. That includes rail runner #1 CUSTOMIZED TWIN as she appears well intended for this second start off the layoff and returning to claiming company, the right level for her abilities. #2 SCARLET STORM does not "jump off the page" but holds some buried form, recency, and could also be at the right level today to compete. 

A case can be made for many in this field and many coming back from solid efforts in the 11/18 common race. That could see #5 QUINN ELLA overlooked in here as some intent figures to be in play as she makes her second start of the meet and returning to her preferred surface/distance. Going back to last season the connections used a similar pattern to show improvement despite coming up short on the win end. The same connections will be represented by #7 SKYKAT, the winner as the betting favorite of that 11/18 race. 

#7 CAVIAR RESOLUTION returns from a WIDE trip in the 11/17 return and should be plenty fit for this event. In addition to conditioning, some further positive intent could be in play with the three week return and rider change to J. Graham. #1 LADY LANA also returns with fitness from a race she likely need as she had not raced since September and only had one published work leading up to 11/17. She will also return with a rider change and post position that should allow for her to save ground to work a trip. 

The K. Bourgeois barn (and jockey B. Curtis) has been sending out live and #9 JOHNNY'S GAME could easily follow that trend here. He debuted at the MSW back in July where he had to rush into a solid opening 1/4 before engaging in a wide duel. 

#4 DATS TRUE LOVE shows up for this second and finds class relief with a softer race par out of the WO debut. #5 FOE moves up at this MCL level last season and did so at the shorter sprint distance than her ideal. While she is who she is, this is the right level for her to compete.

#7 CLASSICAL MAGNOLIA has had limited opportunities to race on the turf but isolating those two starts, this surface is where she has recorded some of her higher figures. She also showed last season the ability to compete at this statebred allowance condition. A similar pattern both on surface/distance and class follows #9 LEAD ME into this race and logical on those favorite. 

#3 EL ORIENTE earned a following off some subtle trips earlier this season into the turf start last month. In terms of that race, the surface seemed less of an impact, rather the trip and tactics taking this one out of his runstyle and dueled on a solid pace - a flow upgrade. The intention could have been "fitness" coming off the 117-day freshening and should be at peak fitness here. #6 NELSON AVENUE has recorded some of  the higher figures and could even hold a pace advantage on the front end in this race. He will stretch back out returning to FG and off a TRAFFIC TROUBLE trip last out at KEE. #7 ROMAN CENTURIAN lacks early speed though with pace will come with a late run. His form could be a little overlooked as he returns here off the recent running lines and finishing positions. 

#7 MISS RIVER RAT caught the eye with a BTL effort in here Hawthorne debut last November and validated that effort with a dominant (B+) win in the Debutante Stakes. The connections had some further stakes intent when entered in the Gowell Stakes last December at Turfway Park, though a trainer scratch and has been on the bench since. The time off since the juvenile season could allow for maturity and the necessary improvement in the speed figure department. This spot could signal intent as the barn sends out a pair with the more established sophomore #2 LURE'EM IN and J. Loveberry landing here. 

#4 FREEBURN turned in a solid effort on debut, a debut against open company and turned out a strong number. She will shift to this circuit where she finds statebred company and seems intent overall in this spot. #8 PLATINUM MINIT looked to improve with the shift to statebred company last month though also looked short off the 58-day break. She ran her best figure to date in the second start and follows a similar pattern here. 

As noted the live Bourgeois barn earlier on the card: #1 NO FEAR shows up for a second start (vet scr under similar FG conditions 11/18) off a very green debut. She broke a step SLOG had TROUBLE_S and has slight trouble and kickback before carrying herself widest off the turn and finished behind the top four separated in a near blanket at the wire.