Handicapper Tips & Picks

#4 FIRE WIRE is logical not only on the drop but in this second start of the cycle returning from a subtle "trip" in part to poor rider TACTIC- (a rider change here) and visually projected to IMPROVE. #1 LEGEND OF THE NILE should present value as they return from the layoff and class relief from the two starts back at ELP in the summer, both races against tougher company (higher OFR/par) than today's event.

Intent should be in play for #7 THREE POINT STRUT in this second start of the cycle, a similar pattern into the 10/24 race when they showed legit early speed (Fast RS1, upgrade) at PID. #6 PERSUADE showed run at this level (B-) at this level two weeks ago making a MOVE in TRAFFIC. With that said, the rider can be a liability and value is required. 

#1 SEAU N'TAP took some support off the 10-1 ML back on 12/2 and showed some run in spots with a subtle trip. The connections had considered running back on 12/16 for $7500k at the mile distance and noted trainer scratch picking this spot instead. #2 SHOW ME THE CANDY could be given an upgrade with the race flow and higher MSW in her first two starts leading into the CD race last month. As far as that day, she chased inside and in hand (NO_PUSH) not asked to get into the race. If she is to rebound this would be the time and place off the drop, live apprentice rider, and coming back in less than 30-days combined with the work on 12/7. The "trips" are noted on that pair and in contrast to the morning line favorites, #3 MARGARET'S LADY and #8 ISA LEI and have shown who they are. #6 PARLAY CHARLIE is another that has shown who she is but those races in line with many in this field at longer odds to get into the mix. 

If #1 ALEMAN showed up at Oaklawn where trainer C. Contreras has been sending out live, the consideration at the morning line might be valid; however the barn is not as strong with this angle and current timing here at Turfway presenting a weak favorite in that role. 

#3 YONO has solid Turfway form (with McKee) and could have been the intent for these connections when claimed last month at CD. The placement wise is a confident move to run for the $30k tag and for this N3 condition which is class relief (lower OFR) from the bulk of the races in this current (since April) season.

There is a group returning from the 11/29 common race at this level and finding some added ground in this spot. Going back to that event, #2 BEAUX ARTES saved ground finished in a BLANKET at wire. Value should shift back to #5 TWO WORDS could be the one to follow in this spot with progressive form, added ground and has improved off a similar cycle here last year with Machado. #11 IT FACTOR also returns with buried local form and could be in the right spot to compete as they make a return off the layoff and back in for the tag. 

Assessing the morning line favorite, B. Cox has debuted some decent fillies/2yo here at Turfway including Idiomatic, though often heavy favorites. As far as #8 UNO LE she posted a big number first out and solid effort through SAVED ground on a day where the inside appeared favorable - #3 TAPPIN INTO GENIUS was also inside that day as well as #2 MO ATTITUDE. By contrast, #6 MIRANDA broke slow and chased WIDE as she returns here for a second start. 

#9 SUMMERINTAHOE has shown more than her running lines and finishing positions suggest and that carries to #13 NOTA BELLE one that has a major upgrade from both starts, though today sitting on the AE. 

#4 RYBAKINA will make her belated debut here and could be intent for the connections. She was entered with a trainer scratch back on 11/19 at CD right after being purchased at the KEE November sale and given a little more time as well as a local work. 

This is a competitive claiming event with many similar on form figures and running style. #6 COLOR CRUSH returns to the claiming level for the first time since her win back in May and based on current/overall form is at the right level for her abilities. #9 MISS MOON PIE made a positive PRERACE+ appearance on 12/6 and could be some intent wheeling right back in two weeks with a subtle softer class drop. The timing is noted as she was coming off a 42-day break earlier this month and might have been a big short on fitness. 

#4 KNICKS STORM was well intended on debut so much so the effort suggested some regression. The connections were wise to give him the 38-days before returning last month at CD, a higher OC N1X today and should hold fitness from that event returning here on the cutback in distance. He fits logically as the favorite - outside of him a case can be made for any other in the field. 

#3 POBLANO turned in a "winning" race for the level going back to 10/20 staying on as the BOS and stretch battle with the winner and next out Comely (G3) winner, Raging Sea. That battle could have in its own right put her "over the top" wheeling back in 27-days for the 11/19 allowance and in addition to the timing was compromised right from the start with an X_WIDE RUSH into a Very Fast early pace. As far as class she has that edge over the field, and will require that edge on the track with her E/EP runstyle, a shared runstyle with many in this field. #6 HURRY UP HANNAH was effective from off the pace breaking her maiden (B+) back in September at HS Indy. The connections were aggressive stepping up to allowance company last month at CD - a higher conditioned race and event that has been productive as she comes back from that event with WIDE trip and 46-day freshening. 

Trainer Delacruz has had a strong year with a limited sample and could get overlooked showing up with #7 PACIFIC STATES first off the claim as a horse with form that fits at this level. #4 RATHCORMAC should have intent as he returns for a belated second start and out of a formful, productive MSW race around this time last year. While some improvement could be projected, running back to the debut figure has him right on par in this group. #5 LYTE CRUDE is back in for the MCL tag and at the right level for his abilities. While the connections ideally might have preferred more ground (unable to draw in off AE in a 8f $30 MCL on 12/9) the intention for this circuit and level is still in play.