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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Fri December 22nd, 2023

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Stakes Spotlight

Fair Grounds Race 7

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#6 SKRATCH KAT started off her career at the Fair Grounds breaking her maiden in the second start after taking a tough beat on debut, both races on this fast main track at the 8.5f distance. She showed progress throughout the sophomore season and has shown improvement and class since returning this year as a four-year-old. She is looking for her first stakes win and this looks to be the right spot for her to do just that. She has tactical speed and the rider change is made after the Fall City (G3) that left her with too much to do still recording a B- OptixGRADE and sneaky late CLOSE making a "bid" something that is tough to see in the running line and finishing position though clear visually. 

#5 HIDDEN CONNECTION looks pointed to this race with the return to the Fair Grounds in this second start of the cycle. When she returned last month in the Chilukki (G3) the placement and timing suggested "PREP" and after chasing inside for the opening half mile she was in hand without being asked late. Throughout her career she has improved second off and in terms of class should appreciate the class drop from the recent series of graded stakes races. #7 LEXA made her stakes debut two weeks ago though did not have much of a chance to compete with the TROUBLE+ trip and overall a BTL effort showing a lot of run through adversity and in contrast to the running line and finishing position - a big contrast to the "never menaced" short comment in the chart.