Handicapper Tips & Picks

The works for #1 TIE BREAKER LENNIE might not look like much on paper but he has some gate speed, speed that is crucial from the rail and over this 5f course. #4 ART AND DESIGN will also debut here and has been working locally on the turf, however I have not seen this one train. The first three weeks of the meet Toner has sent out five runners with one win and another place ridden by today's jockey, J. Ruiz.

#8 RAPID GREY will make a belated second start. Going back to the debut he went off favored from the 8-1 ML, stumbled out of the gate and on WEATHER impacted track making up ground behind perfect winner. Stablemate #3 FLIM ACADEMY does not look to be value in the role as the ML favorite. He will look to be just the second winner from the NY-bred MSW on 7/27 - that lone winner in a $30k MCL event at PARX and in 26 starts from that returning group.

Lynch also has started out live especially in the MSW category with two winners (and two show) in a four horse sample as the barn shows up with #5 MACKVILLE for this second start. #6 WHO SAID GO will make a local debut and the connections scratched from a 8.32f synthetic MSW on 11/18. 

Would not be any surprise to see #1 TAKE YOUR POINT improve for this belated second start. The added ground and current works suggest she will also the least show more and put herself in the race today. Similar could carry to #7 PACIFIC FRONT as she was distance after a SLOG and in hand jogging from off the pace. 

Morning line favorite #5 BLUE HORSESHOE ran fine on debut but she expects to take on much tougher here. She will also give up recency since that race 111-days ago. #3 SIERRA SKY has the benefit of recency and intention to return to the turf. It seemed based on the timing after she was unable to draw into a turf MSW at KEE they took the Turfway race last month off the near two month break and should be plenty fit with the WIDE trip. 

This is a competitive event and a case can be made for and against all in this field. That makes it tough to take a horse at short number as projected with #3 CELESTIAL GLAZE especially off the layoff and this one often races himself into conditioning. As noted earlier in the week Klesaris has been sending out live and caught the 9-1 with Paco on the turf as the pair return in this spot with #6 SAINTHOODFORBRIAN. #4 DANGEROUS RIDE could find the right trip and at the same time overlooked for the connections and coming back off the layoff.

Breen decided on this spot for #6 WHEELINGNDEALING to keep her on the main track and out of the 5.5f synthetic sprint at this level on 12/15 where P. Lopez was also assigned to ride. 

Number wise #3 JAZZIN ran the highest figure in this field by over 10-points. Since that race she has struggled to run back to that figure though will come back with some changes as far as class and distance. The barn will also experiment with the blinkers and rider change to L. Reyes. 

#6 ASHIMA has surface distance experience keying off her second start and higher figure of the three races. She also could be upgraded with the WIDE trip and chasing a pace that was Fast early and Very Fast late. #8 BETTY seems logical in the role of the favorite in this group with consistent figures and two turn experience and with the class drop and rider change there should be little excuses for her here. 

#4 SWORE has shown more class and consistency than his race record indicates and appears the connections are of the similar mind with the placement in this stakes race. In addition to consistency, he has shown stamina and a good partnership with Gaffalione. Trainer M. Maker might have had this race in mind for #1 VALUE ENGINEERING and giving him the race three weeks ago at Turfway coming off the 210-day break. As far as that race he was compromised at the start (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) and made a WIDE MOVE into a Very Slow early pace and visually can IMPROVE off the return. 

#2 THE BIG BANSHEE was upgraded going into the 11/15 race off some subtle trips in the first two starts and a solid work with the class change. The trip last month again could present a move forward as she lost her footing, broke out (TROUBLE_S, RUSH) to stalk wide before making an advance (WIDE MOVE) into the turn and a factor in losing ground late as the race was slowing behind the ground saving pacesetting winner, Dancing Nancy. Two horses have run back both finishing second at Turfway Park with competitive races at the MSW level.

Trip is key for #7 LEXINATOR though fits at this level and looks to present some value today, a shift from the favorite role last month. J. Ortiz has been aboard in the past and could signal intent along with the "every other" pattern that comes with 5f distance change. #5 FLIP MY ID also holds form coming back from the common races and finds a subtle post change that could allow them to push instead of being pressed. 

The Cazares barn has just the one win this season, though has finished in the money at 58% with the other runners. That trend noted with #3 SIX FEET APART making their local return and with a live rider, P. Lopez - previously with FLIP MY ID. The trend is noted for R. Garcia with morning line favorite #2 ALA TURKA looking to turn things around for the barn first off the claim looking for their first win since April.

#5 SUPER CHOW makes sense as the favorite and fits this condition as they sneak in to the eligibility with the March 24th win cutoff. They will find some class relief looking to get back on track from the series of stakes races and coming back from the Steel Valley Sprint, a stakes race that has been productive with both Nautical Star and Frosted Departure coming back to win at the AOC condition last week at Oaklawn Park -- and worth following Super Chow as Damon's Mound will make their next start in the Malibu (G1) on 12/26 at SA.

#6 TICKING makes their return here and one of the other 3yo runners in the field. He has a solid GP record at the sprint distance and appears the right move keeping him at one-turn. 

#5 STEEL LUTE makes her way back to the maiden class and from the Ms. Grillo (G2), a race that has been productive including producing the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf winner, Hard To Justify, her CB stablemate. #9 NO CONSEQUENCES makes a belated second start and upgraded from the debut making a CLOSE into a Very Slow early pace. #4 LAURISTON should get an educational experience from the debut back in October at KEE - odds of 4-1 off the 8-1 ML. She created some of her own issues, though at the same time showed run through adversity. The 10/27 race has held form with maiden winners since and the race winner, Lady de Berry finishing second in the Jimmy Durante (G3) in her next start.