Handicapper Tips & Picks

#7 TRUE EMOTION is a a long time maiden, but first start at this lower level. She has run competitive figures and often those better efforts show up second of the cycle, the pattern in play today - coming back from the layoff and subtle trip, less than ideal ride on 12/17.

Moquett scratched #8 MAMBA OUT out of a similar conditioned event on 12/17 - worked that same day and returns in this spot with R. Bejarano. She was claimed back in October at KEE from a WIDE trip and had a subtle trip in November making a RUSH into the duel before losing ground. 

The class drop is less of a concern for #4 PENZIG noting the visuals last April, suggesting she would need the DROP to compete. She will give up recency off the layoff and while she does not have to improve much, she still must step forward. The entry #1 ACCLERATING BABE and #1A KAT'N CHROME also must improve and while they have shown run in spots and upside, they also have shown a pattern of gate issues. 

First time starter #9 DIFFERENTLY will debut for Combs, a higher percentage barn overall, though not that sends out many FTS. In that small sample the barn looking for the first debut winner, though were close running third in an MCL event last year. 

#4 EL FRANCO is upgraded with the return to the two-turn distance today. His most recent start around two turns back in October at KEE came with a subtle excuse, a less than ideal ride racing in traffic against the dynamic of the race. On his best day he fits at this level and making his second start for the barn, racing protected, if he is going to show that top effort this would be the time.

#8 KOBLA MAS overall fits at this level and given an upgrade returning from the 12/15 race. He was held up off the pace left with too much to do and despite the running line and finishing position turned in a strong close. #1 LIPS SAY BLISS was dominant breaking his maiden on debut and could take the step up in class off that effort. He will make some further changes taking on winners and stretching out in distance, though could be a confident sign off the debut to race protected here. 

Of the lightly raced group, #1 NYQUICK has improving figures and upside in his second start off the layoff. He has local form and over this course going back to the events last spring; a TROUBLE trip on debut and and WIDE trip in the April place finish. #4 BEN FRANKLIN also has improving figures, though those numbers earned with the race flow. Especially in his most recent, November start where he started to lost ground and while they find a shorter distance, there are some distance concerns.

#6 MOUNT CRAIG is tough to trust on the win end given his overall record. Though he could just catch the right field as an older horse with current and local form also upgraded with the return to the two turn distance. #7 GAME KEEPER has a pair of races over this course and route distance to start off his career. Both race he has some trouble in running and since has come up short, though has shown some run in spots. The return today with the blinkers could come with desperation, though could also suggest some intent. 

#5 ANNIVERSAIRE D'OR is tough to endorse off his first two starts in this group, though he is one that might not have shown his best yet. He debuted with a WIDE trip over the turf at DMR in what looked like a PREP and showed some run though near excuse with the ride, ground loss and not asked late last month at LRC. 

#9 MADAM LEOTA is a lightly raced type with improving numbers and could take another step forward here. On debut, she was parked with the outside post in MSW at NYRA and without much luck at the draw in her second start three weeks ago. She showed run that day at Turfway Park making a WIDE MOVE and had public support despite the draw to the second choice off an 8-1 ML. 

#10 DIXIE RAG returns first off the claim for Diodoro and second start at the MCL level. Physically has the ROUTER presence and was unable to get into the 11/24 race X_FLOW. Her stablemate #2 SAILING AWAY projects to show early speed. She was able to carry her speed on a soft early pace on debut though faltered when put to a solid pace last month at RP. 

#3 ART QUEEN has shown declining figures since her debut, though at the same time she was stepped up in class. She returns to the MCL level today and draws better this afternoon. The timing should right in this second start off the layoff returning with experience over this course and fitness from the WIDE trip. Her stablemate #11 BUMP IN THE NIGHT finds the change in post moving from inside to outside for this race. She projected to move up on 11/5 with the drop in the second start and did just that with the place finish. She was a voided claim that day and returns under similar $20k conditions here. 

#8 MIWOMAN will make her second start and from the 11/17 debut that has produced two next out winners, and one place. With both returning to win at a lower MCL level the race strength or lack of is noted showing up here. The change in class is more of a lateral move for #7 CALIFORNIA CODE and must step up off her races to compete on this level. 

#2 POPULIST fits the condition as a five time winner with his most recent win back in July. Class wise is a lateral move if not a slight drop from the open claiming events. He was claimed back in November on a rainy day where POPULIST stayed on as the BOS through a solid pace with the win and show finishers from off the pace. 

#3 ALVAARO started to show declining form before the layoff they return from here. He could rebound with the time off and the return to claiming company, a change that woke him up back in June at LS. 

#4 WELLMAN will make his first start off the claim here for Garcia, a barn that has been sending out some live runners. There could be intent for this spot noting a scratch from an OC$25k event back in December at TP. 

#11 D'YANK could be back to his top form and that form makes him competitive in today's group. He has a win over this course in his lone try and could be some intent for the connections that do not often ship though when they do, they come race ready.

#4 DALTON'S RUTROW earned a follow going back to the debut last season, an EX - EXCUSE and IMPROVE Projected going forward. He has done just that showing more early speed in his second start and returning on 12/30 off the bench with a BTL effort. He will make a lateral class change running against open $12.5k company last week but that condition allowed him to run for the $20k tag they race for here. They bring more upside than rival #6 DANCIN ROCKET also wheeling right back and on that has come up short under similar conditions though can keep their form and consistency for the minors. 

#9 THIRD WATCH returns from the layoff and showing up in MCL conditions. The move seems aggressive placing them where they can compete. This one did show improvement last year racing against the flow on debut and the X_WIDE trip unable to overcome the outside post in his second and most recent start. 

In terms of the outside runners, number wise there is not much between #11 IMPOVERISHED and #12 SIR PEEL, though SIR PEEL has the edge in recency and also class making just his second start at the lower statebred MCL level on this circuit. 

#2 ICARUS returns to Oaklawn Park where he had a solid meet last year picking up a pair of wins. He was claimed back in September and returning for Simms, he has shown some progression race-to-race and could be sitting on a peak effort in this third start off the layoff.

#8 ANTIGRAVITY also holds form over this course despite lacking the win. A big part of that record could be chalked up to placement given the higher class and some trips with a pair of seconds finishing together with the race winner at the wire. As they return here this will be just his third start in claiming company and a softer race par than the two higher level restricted claiming events last year. 

#1 NAMESAKE finds some class relief returning from the 12/17 allowance and upside from that trip/ride where he was held up with TROUBLE showing run from off the pace after a slow start. He will find some class relief returning here to the claiming level, though is a higher claiming level than the placement where he was competitive last year. This one did start to find his form and improve and could be taken as a confident sign to run for the higher tag. 

#10 KNEEDEEPINSNOW will give up some recency returning off the layoff though could hold intent for the connections. He could also fall into the right trip. The post drawn outside the other "speed" in the race should all for him to get over and start with his natural early speed; and from there look for first run and the back class to overcome the time off.

To race under these conditions they will be in for the $50k tag and the other runner in for tag is #3 GO WEST. He was picked up for the higher $80k back in November and did not appear to hold much intent for his first start off the claim wheeling back in just 9-days for the 11/26 allowance. He has a solid Oaklawn record and perhaps the connections had this meet in mind when they made the claim. In terms of trip, he is one of many that has done their better running on or near the lead, though has shown he can rate and pass horses something that could be key here.

#4 TEXAS RED HOT requires pace and price compensation as a deeper closer. The 6f distance ideally is a little shorter than his ideal though showed last season he can win with the right scenario. The pace should be contentious with many E/EP types in the field, and he does have an edge over some other with recency and form coming into his race and also one of the older runners in the field.

#3 NEPAL UP returns in this spot fresh with form at this starter allowance level and distance. He is one that can turn in a top effort off this type of break and appreciate more time between starts. His stalking runstyle can work out a trip in this field and race shape. He has more tactical speed than it might appear on paper and more tactical speed than stablemate #9 INDIAN GULCH. 

Ten Strike also has a pair for different trainers in this spot. #8 TIGER MOON has a class edge and form over this course and starter allowance condition. He often requires pace to make his run and trip something that #12 TRUCULENT could assist with and will likely be ridden assertively given his runstyle and the outside post - he could really be used if #13 CHAPEL BARN draws in and his edge is early speed. 

#5 NEXT REVOLT one that has some early speed and has been effective with Hernandez rationing out that speed to preserve something late and that looks to be the plan once again here. 

With those runners forward #7 COACH ADAMS could fall into a trip. He has some tactical speed to sit right off the pacesetters and look for a first run. In terms of current form, he has some recency and sitting on a peak effort in this third start of the cycle.