Handicapper Tips & Picks

#2 SEAS OF NORMANDY found the belated class relief key to break his maiden last season and has held his own in the claiming conditions since. Today is more of a lateral move class wise from the recent CD races with the potential main change being pace as he should find a more contentious honest pace for his late run in today’s projected dynamic. #5 SINGLE RULER turned in a competitive race under similar N2 claiming conditions back at CD in September he will give up some recency coming into this race off the two month break, though has been trying to run at the FG as he was entered three times as an MTO to no avail.  Distance remains the big question for #4 IGNITIS one that is finding considerable class relief for this race. He has for run in a par this low in this last three years. His form coming into this race is progressive with improving figures coming into this race. The class change is in play for #3 DANCE SOME MO returning from starter allowance company last month. In addition he did not handle the trip that day rating inside behind horses and upgraded with the race shapes from the prior two starts in KY. 

Ortiz shows up with a logical pair in this race: #9 ART QUEEN has shown declining figures since her debut, though at the same time she was stepped up in class. She returns to the MCL level and the timing should right in this second start off the layoff returning with experience over this course and fitness from the WIDE trip. Her stablemate #5 BUMP IN THE NIGHT projected to move up on 11/5 with the drop in the second start and did just that with the place finish. She was bet down late, 9-2 going into the gate, was a voided claim that day and returns under similar $20k conditions here, however a higher race par. 

#7 GI GIS MAP finds a subtle drop returning second off the layoff. She broke SLOG on debut and in the event two weeks ago, though visually wanted to show more early speed and unable to do so with the break and the Very Fast early pace of that 12/31 event. She was not part of the group that were scheduled to race last Sunday.

#12 MADAM LEOTA is a lightly raced type with improving numbers and could take another step forward here. On debut, she was parked with the outside post in MSW at NYRA and without much luck at the draw in her second start three weeks ago. She showed run that day at Turfway Park making a WIDE MOVE and had public support despite the draw to the second choice off an 8-1 ML. 

#13 DIXIE RAG (AE) returns first off the claim for Diodoro and second start at the MCL level. Physically has the ROUTER presence and was unable to get into the 11/24 race X_FLOW. Her stablemate #2 SAILING AWAY projects to show early speed. She was able to carry her speed on a soft early pace on debut though faltered when put to a solid pace last month at RP. 

#8 MIWOMAN will make her second start and from the 11/17 debut that has produced two next out winners, and one place. With both returning to win at a lower MCL level the race strength or lack of is noted showing up here. The change in class is more of a lateral move for #11 CALIFORNIA CODE and must step up off her races to compete on this level though does benefit from the return to a route distance and worth following the trend of the Miller barn with some potentially live runners earlier in the week.  

#5 DOUGHTY showed early speed in her debut and with the maiden win last February. Running back to either of those efforts could have the others racing for the minors, though form must be considered at the projected shorter number as she returns from the layoff and the connections showing up in this spot first time for the maiden claiming tag. Number wise #11 KITIARA could be right with her with upside from the figures last season sprinting. She was claimed back in May and has been given the time she needs to get back to form with steady local works and a live rider in C. Torres. She will also give up recency as she makes her first start of the meet though fits at this level keying off the place finish last April and should be the higher of the two.

#2 BE MY HUCKLEBERRY returns with a rider change and projects to show more tactical speed, a return to her more effective runstyle. Going back to 12/15 she was held up early and on hold chased wide well off the pace making up ground down the center of the track late.

If the AE runners fail to draw in that should assist #3 K J’S PISTOL ANNIE in terms of trip and pace as she projects to be forward at the first call and even a potential scenario where she is lone. #12 BETTY JO has tactical speed she was unable to show last month losing her footing coming out of the gate, with that said, she has the outside draw and could look for the stalk-and-pounce run that was effective from a similar outside post when breaking her maiden on debut.

#1 ELMO’S SECRET should move up with the race under her belt as the 12/15 start off the layoff appeared a prep with that said she could still be a race out and at the sprint distance once again, likely to make any progress late in the race from well off the pace.  

#1 ESSENTIAL BUSINESS and #2 SHANIAH project to take the bulk of the wagering support and for logical reasons as they hold some of the higher figures in the group and in contrast to the others that have been racing at this similar claiming level, these two take the class drop. Intent should be in play for both in this spot and in terms of runstyle there is not much between them as they project to be forwardly placed could contest or try to rate depending on rider tactics.

#12 MIA BABY could get overlooked from the outside post once again and from the recent running lines. Overall she looked to need the 12/19 race with the 44-day freshening following the HS Indy season and for this meet. She is one that can hold her form and race on shorter time between starts, the pattern in play today. Trip will be key from the post, though in terms of pace, she should find the right dynamic for her runstyle. #7 DISTORED SECRETS looked to require the race coming off the layoff two weeks ago and should benefit from the fitness. She was a bit unlucky with the call to DQ from place and appears no worse for the wear right back today first off the claim with Torres aboard. 

#1 SEA FORCE has legit early speed and the rail draw to present an advantage in this race. It is tough to see the morning line stick given the connections sending out live runners this met and since entering the Gibson barn this one has been a short favorite in every start. That could see the odds drift up on #4 ABUNDANT, one with some overall reservations back from another long layoff and returns with a drop to the lowest level of his career. #5 INVARIABLY returns from a subtle trip with that 5^th place result a blanket for the minors as the top two finished together on 12/29. As they show up in this second start of the season, improvement can be projected as well as intent as the connections make a rider change as well.  #6 ROMAN GIANT does not need to race from as far off the pace as he was on opening week and compromised on the day out of position to compete. He was claimed out of that race and without much time between starts, an additional work since for this second start off the layoff and more competitive effort today can be projected. Both AE runners can be upgraded should they draw in: #13 JIM AND JIM is more obvious though as noted in a prior video the BTL effort from #14 RACKATAPTAP on 12/29 should not be ignored. 

This is a tricky race with many wheeling back on short rest and for many that also comes with a change in connections. #5 HAPPYMAC takes a different path returning fresh off a three month break and to Oaklawn where he has run well in the past and recorded some of his highest figures. Further intent could be in play as he was reclaimed by McKnight in October was protected when he raced on shorter rest in his most recent start on 10/16 and remain projected here. That 10/7 race where he was claimed is the lone start that makes him eligible for this condition. #7 THERIDEOFALIFETIME was not claimed on 12/9 and could be a positive sign the connections return today racing protected. His former stablemate #8 MAN ON THE MOON was claimed out of the most recent start on 12/15 and off a place finish where the overconfident ride allowed the winner to control the pace and hold late. The change in distance to 6f is a question mark, however this one has been effective at the one turn 7-8f distances.

As far as the Broberg pair, #2 BANDERA AZTECA is one wheeling back off a win though stablemate #9 RED N WILD could be flying under the radar and live into this race. His back numbers and class fit on par and another that finds himself eligible for this condition due to those two most recent starts coming back off the layoff in this current form cycle.  

#9 ICARUS returns to Oaklawn Park where he had a solid meet last year picking up a pair of wins. He was claimed back in September and returning for Simms, he has shown some progression race-to-race and could be sitting on a peak effort in this third start off the layoff. #11 ANTIGRAVITY also holds form over this course despite lacking the win. A big part of that record could be chalked up to placement given the higher class and some trips with a pair of seconds finishing together with the race winner at the wire. As they return here this will be just his third start in claiming company and a softer race par than the two higher level restricted claiming events last year. 

#3 BEER CHASER holds most of his wins at the route distance and will look to carry that form back to Oaklawn. His sprint form has been stronger on this circuit, though overall local form fits at this level and with the recency coming back from the 12/29 race where he made a WIDE CLOSE late run after a SLOG and more competitive effort than the 6^th place result might appear on paper. #4 HOME RUN TRICK will stretch back out in distance to a route and with that change returning to the front running style – could be assisted with the AE runners unable to draw in. He could be a little overlooked off the recent running lines, finishing positions, though on form his is showing progression in this third start off the layoff should be sitting on a peak effort today. 

Diodoro will show up with a pair in this race and likely intent for #9 B MINOR in this race as #5 COSMO was entered last Sunday in a $30k claiming event, the day the card was cancelled and might be entered here for the race to fill. B MINOR will make their first start back off the layoff and return to Oaklawn and had some subtle trips last March. #8 MACHINE GUN MAN was entered in the Woodchipper staked last month and was likely looking for a surface switch to the main track noting a trainer scratch. They will land here instead and shipping in for the connections to this higher allowance race where they fit on earnings to compete. #3 LATE NIGHT RADIO has held his form for Caster and improving last year and off the layoff. He will look to transfer his RP form and step up to this allowance level. As far as #4 PLEDGEOFALLEGIANCE, he returns from a place finish at this allowance level last month, though was earned with a perfect trip and with the race flow; today’s race carries a higher race par and he projects to be much shorter today than the 25-1 just over two weeks ago. 

#2 NGALA does not present much value though should have little excuse today as she takes the drop in class with some of the strongest local form. Bejarano will be back aboard and the two turned in a BTL effort going back to her debut last March. She is just one of four older runners in the field. #8 TIZ A STRATEGY being another as she makes her return off the 259 day layoff. She is tougher to trust on the win end though is established and should offer value trading that for upside over many of the 3yo second time starters.

Prather has started off with live runners in a limited sample for 2024 and could be live with #11 FIRST CLASS GIRL. As far as the FTS category, the barn struggled last year, though near success first out with Pepperoni Kid finishing in a blanket third at the wire with C. Torres aboard and Torres was aboard Funtimegirl when she broke her maiden on debut at 40-1 in 2022 and was aboard for one of the two debut wins in 2021 with Starrgarita paying $26. The barn also started a statebred MSW runner called All Green Lights opening week that opened with early money and seemed intent despite finishing off the board.