Handicapper Tips & Picks

KRANTZ MEMORIAL STAKES

There is no real knock on the morning line favorites in this race with #1 LOVELY PRINCESS and #5 CREATIVE CAIRO both turning in similar efforts overall in the Blushing Stakes exacta finish. Local stakes form carries to #9 TUFANI as she wheels right back with shorter rest for this race.

The value and upside sits with #8 JOIN THE DANCE with back class, figures, and fitness as she returns from the show result in the Blushing Stakes. This race could have been the target all along as was able to get the first start off the layoff and for Stewart as she should be sitting on a peak effort here. 

SILVERBULLETDAY STAKES

#1 PERFECT SHOT projected to improve off her debut with added (STRETCH) ground and has done just that with each start. She has plenty of foundation from the three races last year and local works coming into this race and stakes debut.

Rosario picks up the mount on PERFECT SHOT as Saez will be the fourth rider in as many starts aboard #6 WEST OMAHA. She has improved with each start and has the local foundation and experience with the place finish and TRAFFIC trip in the Untapable Stakes behind her stablemate pacesetting chalk winner, Alpine Princess. #8 SISTINA CHAPEL also had an inside SAVED TRAFFIC trip in the Untapable and to her credit has been consistent. She will be given another class test today and around two turns where she requires another move forward to compete for the top spot at this level and two-turn distance. 

C. BRADLEY STAKES

Tough to get a feel for this race as a few could be entered indirectly as MTO and scratches would impact the race shape. Many will return from the B. Diliberto Memorial Stakes, a race that messy for most and compromising completely for others. #8 RISING EMPIRE did not have one of the more obvious "trips" though ground loss/WIDE and overall timing in running and in form cycle was less than ideal. Looking at his other efforts over this turf course, his form figures and even class Muniz Memorial (G2) place finish fit in this event. In terms of a rider change, Saez was aboard for his debut way back in October 2020 at KEE, a legit TROUBLE+ trip and followed up by a layoff and stepped forward as an older horse. 

LOUISIANA (G3)

#2 SMILE HAPPY is the class of the field and class that can assist to work a trip. Rail runner #1 RED ROUTE ONE lacks early speed to allow SMILE HAPPY to establish position inside and stalking pacesetters #3 SAUDI CROWN. Further pace pressure could come from the outside depending on the rider tactics for #5 FIVE STAR GENERAL. SAUDI CROWN benefits most from #7 KAPUNA opting for the 5^th Season at Oaklawn and as reported by DRF Hersh will wait for that race.

#6 CONFIDENCE GAME has yet to run a triple digit figure and failing to do so with others capable of running that faster race has him overmatched. That said, if he is going to run that number, this would be the time. Since returning from the layoff in the Perryville, a race that appeared a prep given the timing and sprint distance. He took a step forward wheeling back in two weeks for the 11/4 allowance, however, he was compromised by the handling sending into a fast pace from the rail. Not only was that not his trip but was also the only 3yo in the field against older horses. The pattern of age carried in the Tenacious as the lone sophomore and his 5^th place run was BTL and had adversity throughout getting SHUFFLE out of position at a crucial point in running and following the TROUBLE made a sneaky CLOSE and continued to GALLOP+ after the wire. The TACTIC- were less than ideal and could be part of the rider change decision here. 

LECOMTE STAKES (G3)

The case for #4 CAN GROUP is not one that is the "most likely" winner, though likely to offer value and as an overlay in this race. He will get overlooked with the surface switch and dismissed as a "turf horse" based on the recent races. Granted he is proven on the turf, the place where he fits on class and speed, his dirt races did not appear to be a factor of dirt. His debut was sneaky good; the distance was much shorter than his ideal. CAN GROUP finished with a massive CLOSE behind Market Street, one that has not really trained on but did finish second in the Saratoga Special (G2) behind the Norm Casse runner, Rhyme Schemes. The pattern of closing behind stakes runners continued in July behind both Timberlake and West Saratoga both graded stakes winners since. His recent closing run behind stakes winners is documented in the recent turf stakes races including the BC Juv Turf (G1) with the three horses that have run back have finished no worse than second. 

CAN GROUP has been training on the dirt and worked in company with stablemate Witwatersrand, the Mazarine (G3) winner on the dirt at Palm Meadows back on 12/3 before shipping in to the Fair Grounds where intent comes into play. J. Loveberry will take over and the type of smart, tactical rider that should fit this horse perfectly. 

LA CANADA STAKES (G3):

#2 COFFEE IN BED showed class breaking her maiden on debut at long odds and showed that was no fluke as she improved her figures in the two following starts. As far as her two races in graded stakes company, those were the two races she finished off the board. While it will be a common talking point to point to racing off Lasix as the "reason" and a "concern" here. That reasoning ignores the trips and timing and arguably efforts that were more competitive than it appears on paper. That also ignores her race over today's course and distance and overall Santa Anita form. She will make her first start of the season and off the 76-day layoff and looks peaked for a top effort. She has been training very well coming into this race and off the recent works should give her best effort and that effort puts her right in the mix with #1 MUSICAL MISCHIEF, #4 DESERT DAWN and #6 MIDNIGHT MEMORIES and projects to go off at the higher odds of that group.