Handicapper Tips & Picks

Motion holds a solid hand in this race with the pair of #1 ROMAGNA MIA with the rail, early speed and stamina as a threat; #6 SISTER O’TOOLE returning from a BTL effort at DMR and with local form over this course and distance.

#9 HIGHLAND GRACE will also step up into this spot, though should offer value of the pair and even intent as Prat will be aboard and this duo looking to continue the perfect 2-for-2 record.

#3 R CALLI KIM has solid form coming into this race with stamina and figures on par, however she will find a class rise today from the recent starts. 

#11 ANGLOPHILE appears pointed to this day as he is cross-entered on the card and should be race ready. While the connections could end up racing in the Pegasus Turf (G1) if they draw in, this spot is a better fit. He has shown plenty of stamina and class already a G3 winner and coming back from a B OptixGRADE in the Tropical Turf (potential prep for this) a winning effort for the level despite the 4^th place result.  

#4 VALUE ENGINEERING could be overlooked in this competitive field off the recent running lines and finishing position. Those factors require some price compensation as if he runs back to those efforts, he will be nowhere in the top, however there is reason to suggest a move forward today. The 11/30 effort at Turfway, was one to build off of showing a WIDE MOVE after a poor start. While he did not move up last month, the trip/TACTIC- were less than ideal and similar for the 16f distance, 3f longer than when he won the HS Jerkens in 2023. He can be a tricky horse to time his move and trip and encouraging that J. Ortiz remains aboard and has had prior success aboard last year.  

Both #7 VERSTAPPEN and #8 CELLIST have races that fit as contenders. In terms of trip, timing and course, there are some reservations and price compensation required. 

#2 TWO ITEM SAVER ran her best race at the 7f distance and dominated allowance company at KEE back in October. She will make her way back to the dirt and 7f distance for the first time since. As far as the two races in between, she was given a class test around two-turns at CD given the field that day and the trip, less than ideal allowed for a subtle excuse. She rebounded to win and regain confidence last month at Turfway as she did what needed to be done without extending herself for the win and can move forward off that effort here.

#9 MARYQUITECONTRARY is logical, she has current form class and has a solid 7f record. Her class is not only reflected in the race record, but also in her ability to put herself into a race and show runstyle versatility. #3 INTREPID DAYDREAM also fits logically and some intent as she makes her second start for the barn and over the GP main track coming into this race with local experience. 

#9 DIDIA suffered her first off the board finish in the BC F&M Turf (G1) though to be fair she maintained her figure and all things considered the 10f at the higher G1 level possible, is not her ideal combination. She appears no worse for the wear as she was right back to work in the November tab at KEE and has continued to keep up her training and has been on the grounds putting in breeze over the GP main on 1/19.

Saez sticking with #4 STAR FORTRESS is notable as he departs, #8 QUEEN GODDESS, the winner of this race last year. As far as STAR FORTRESS she was dominant on the day and the connections were a bit luck as she took the Cardinal (G3) after a couple prior scratches in allowance company including one on 11/18 when the races were taken off the turf. She is a major player off that big effort, though that is a race that will not be ignored sitting on top of the pp’s and projects to be much shorter here than when in that “easier” spot.

QUEEN GODDESS will pick up T. Gaffalione, a rider that has been aboard in the past going back to the QE II (G1) at Keeneland over a yielding course. She has been more effective over a firm course and one of her stronger figures in this race last year. She has held her own despite picking up a win in G1 company and can be given an upgrade from the Matriarch (G1) with the WIDE trip, far from ideal.

#7 FLUFFY SOCKS also had a WIDE trip and ran a big race behind her ground saving stablemate winner, Surge Capacity though in front of her other two stablemates on the day. She will be joined by her stablemate #2 CHILI FLAG one that will make her graded stakes debut in this spot though has a favorable runstyle and draw that could be enough for a share. 

#2 EXPRESSMAN comes back from the long layoff and in this spot suggesting confidence and intent. He had a late start making his debut halfway through the sophomore season, though one could argue worth the wait as he was dominant earning a strong figure and one to follow. He continued to hold his form though did not make a graded stakes debut until last Spring. That was a tough spot in G1 company and perhaps the connections expected more or felt he was short as they came right back in the Westchester (G3) less than 30-days later. Coming into this race, he is training strongly (the 1/13 work heads up with Dynamic One) and has plenty of fitness where the connections should be expecting a peak effort here. A common question will be the lack of Lasix for this race, with the two prior stakes races, though in my opinion, Lasix was not a factor and for today’s race that “concern” should allow for a higher number on the board.

Romans returns with a pair: #4 CYCLONE MISCHIEF has shown a fondness for the GP main track and his better efforts around one turn, the distance he remains at today. This will be his 4yo debut and first start against older. #9 GIANT GAME also has some sneaky GP form going back to last season and continued to improve the remainder of the year. He returns from the Clark (G2) at 9f, a distance he was able to overcome with a “lone” trip in the Cornhusker (G3) at PRM, though appeared to get exposed at the distance with the shift in higher circuit. 

While it is tough to argue #9 WARM HEART is not the class of the field to fit the role of the favorite; the question if this is the time and place coming back for this first start of the season and shortening up to the 9f distance at the time to lean on her as the favorite. 

#3 INTEGRATION has shown class in each start, numbers on par and improving type for solid connections. With that in mind, the number must take into account this will be his first time in graded stakes company against older horses - a factor to consider for #5 WEBSLINGER as well.  

#7 ADHAMO has held his own in G1 company and shown he is not at his best at the 12f distance. Excusing those marathon races and keying off the form with Prat he is a consistent type and could find the right scenario in today's race shape without needing to be the "best" horse in the field. 

The Plot position for #12 CATNIP is tough to ignore on a runner that projects to hold double digit odds above the projected morning line. He will come into this race fresh and fit off the series of works at the FG picking this spot at his preferred surface/distance with tactical speed and in good hands with Dettori. 

This race does my head in and at end of the day one of these horses will win a G1. In terms of the "most likely" #7 NATIONAL TREASURE and #8 FIRST MISSION fit that profile. When looking at them as playable runners, my fair odds sits at 4-1 and project both will be below, rendering unplayable territory. 

#2 O'CONNOR is the type of horse that can win this race and could fall into the right odds to play. Going back to the Pegasus (G1) last year, he appeared in the right time and place in the second start off the layoff though did not fit the race shape from the outside post and that played out accordingly on the race track - his Plot position this time around is an upgrade from 2023. Since then, he has improved with races and proven himself over the GP main track. He holds graded stakes form and figures on par for this event. Value should stick as regular rider, T. Gaffalione, the win rider from the two recent starts sticks with stablemate #12 SKIPPYLONGSTOCKING. As an individual, he does not fit today's race shape, a similar type trip and race shape from the 2023 Pegasus (G1) could present a hurdle again. 

#3 DYNAMIC ONE has been pointed to this race and with back class as he has held his one against graded stakes types (Proxy) in the past. Granted the 12/22 placement was a "PREP" and had adversity at the start, he still needed to show more that day to have a stronger confidence level to endorse for this spot. He has given given time and improved in his works (not sure how stablemate #11 CRUPI was given the "faster" time of these two in company on 1/20) and now comes back with the local experience. The 15-1 ML is probably a playable number, perhaps even shorter as some wagering support could be an encouraging sign. 

5TH SEASON STAKES

#1 PROMISE KEEPER has some back class and current form that could be the right combination for this stakes race. He can be upgraded making a CLOSE last month in the RP stakes race behind an open length pacesetting flow winner, U.S. Army, one that races in the Friday finale. Some intent could be in play remaining in stakes company and returning to Oaklawn for the first time since the 2022 season. His lone local appearance the G3 Razorback Stakes making a late CLOSE (after a SLOG) X_FLOW and a competitive race and figure all things considered.

With the redraw from last week, #2 SILVER PROSPECTOR draws better today for his runstyle and where he has been able to find success saving ground to work a trip. Going back to the 5^th season last year he was compromised with the outside post, rider unable to overcome suffering a WIDE trip as result. #4 SEIZE THE NIGHT also race in the 5^th Season last year and also had a WIDE trip un addition to poor timing in his form cycle and has a more favorable runstyle coming into this event.

#5 KUPUNA appears well-intended for this race with the connections making it known this would be their first choice and wait the week rather than run in the Louisiana (G3) where he was cross entered at the FG. His early speed is an asset and if left alone can be dangerous so will depend on the tactics from others in here what type of contention KUPUNA will receive. #3 BRIGADIER GENERAL has done his better running on the lead and like KUPUNA has benefit from softer races shapes – that carries to #7 LOGICAL MYTH. The two runners other outside runners, #6 DURANTE brings legit early sprint speed and #8 NAUTICAL STAR one that does not have the same early sprint speed, though exiting sprint races should naturally sit closer.