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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sat January 27th, 2024

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Emily's Analysis

Oaklawn Park Race 9

Post Time 4:55 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

5TH SEASON STAKES

#1 PROMISE KEEPER has some back class and current form that could be the right combination for this stakes race. He can be upgraded making a CLOSE last month in the RP stakes race behind an open length pacesetting flow winner, U.S. Army, one that races in the Friday finale. Some intent could be in play remaining in stakes company and returning to Oaklawn for the first time since the 2022 season. His lone local appearance the G3 Razorback Stakes making a late CLOSE (after a SLOG) X_FLOW and a competitive race and figure all things considered.

With the redraw from last week, #2 SILVER PROSPECTOR draws better today for his runstyle and where he has been able to find success saving ground to work a trip. Going back to the 5th season last year he was compromised with the outside post, rider unable to overcome suffering a WIDE trip as result. #4 SEIZE THE NIGHT also race in the 5th Season last year and also had a WIDE trip un addition to poor timing in his form cycle and has a more favorable runstyle coming into this event.

#5 KUPUNA appears well-intended for this race with the connections making it known this would be their first choice and wait the week rather than run in the Louisiana (G3) where he was cross entered at the FG. His early speed is an asset and if left alone can be dangerous so will depend on the tactics from others in here what type of contention KUPUNA will receive. #3 BRIGADIER GENERAL has done his better running on the lead and like KUPUNA has benefit from softer races shapes – that carries to #7 LOGICAL MYTH. The two runners other outside runners, #6 DURANTE brings legit early sprint speed and #8 NAUTICAL STAR one that does not have the same early sprint speed, though exiting sprint races should naturally sit closer.