Handicapper Tips & Picks

WITHERS (G3) 

The race becomes playable as #3 LIGHTLINE is assigned the role of the morning line favorite and a weaker type in that role. He is capable though has not run as "fast" as some of the others, has shown gate (SLOG) issues and does not hold a class or pace advantage to justify the "horse to beat" projected odds. 

Pletcher will return with a pair: #9 KHANATE showed improvement with racing and has run against some quality types keying off the November allowance at CD (Parchment Party) and will look to build off the fitness coming back from the Jerome in this second start off the layoff; #1 SPEED RUNNER takes a big step up in class off the maiden win, though from the visuals handled the 9f distance (stamina) and his runstyle could sit a trip (pace) in today race shape. 

#7 MISSION BEACH has some graded stakes experience and foundation as he comes off a win in the third start in this cycle. He can improve with the current progression and upside keying off his debut number, a figure he can run back to or even step forward from. 

#4 EL GRANDE O also lacks value as the projected 5-2 ML suggests. He has recorded some of the higher figures in the field, though has often struggled to pair those higher figures and hold the numbers in open company. The added ground for today's race could also present a further hurdle. If looking at runners moving up to open company #8 UNCLE HEAVY is preferred he has shown stamina and some class breaking his maiden on debut and overcoming adversity and showing grit to win the Wait For It stakes. 

The HOLY BULL (G3) might not present the best wagering opportunity of the day, though a key race to follow and will get a lot of attention.

#7 FIERCENESS does not project to offer much value in this race though does appear a legitimate favorite. His class, speed and runstyle fit today's race shape and while he will give up recency in the first start of the season, he is working steadily and strongly with stakes stablemate Locked and recent (GP 12/30) debut winner, Born Noble (91 fig) on 1/20 to prepare for this race. 

Prior to the scratches, #3 OTELLO presented some vulnerabilities in the Mucho Macho Man stakes last month. He was able to pick up the win on the day and showed some class to do so while number wise a slight drop from the debut figure. That is less of a concern here as the timing and cycle of today's race should have him sitting on a peak effort. 

SOUTHWEST STAKES (G3)

#6 LIBERAL ARTS will give up some recency, though will track for class as the lone graded stakes winner in the field coming back from the G3 Streer Sense and that from a BTL G3 Iroquois effort. In addition to proven class he backed that up with improving figures and added ground. His runstyle fits today’s race shape as the pace should be kept honest and has enough tactical speed to put himself in the race paired with finishing ability.

#9 AWESOME ROAD has graded stakes form though has not been as effective and certainly not up to the expectations of the public in those events. He had some excuses with the TROUBLE in the Breeders Futurity (G1; and less obvious, though still impactful trouble closing out the year at CD. He has trained forwardly into this seasonal debut out to redeem himself and the public returning here and the connections picking this spot rather than the Lecomte (g3) on 1/20 at FG.

The pace of this race projects to be quick with Baffert sending in #5 WYNSTOCK (one it seems you wanted the last couple times as he will be much shorter today) and #7 CARBONE one that has shown legit early speed both sprinting and stretching out last month. There are others in this field such as #1 MAYCOCKS BAY and #4 OTTO THE CONQUEROR that have been more effective on or near the lead. Runners like #8 COASTAL DEFENSE and #9 LINEBACKER have shown the ability to rate and finish and will likely get more attention than #3 MAGIC GRANT. The Milligan trainee shows up as an improving type that has stepped up in each start and has been working steadily since the Springboard Mile when making a WIDE MOVE and behind the top two that ran forwardly placed (including OTTO THE CONQUEROR) throughout and continued to GALLOP+ out after the wire.

P 6 Settn A Precedent 5 Delitfulcatherin 4 Dabarndawgswatchin

P 7 Whichwaytothebeach 2 Code Cracker 3 Legion Seelster

P 8 Hes Swift 4 B Stormy 5 Control The Power

P 4 Jabberwocky 1 Century Heineken 7 Donttouchmytruck

P 8 Coz Im Special 9 Jm Betonsix 6 Better Be Donna

P 7 Bee Two Bee 3 The Greek Freak 6 Hungry Man

P 2 Kopi Luwak 8 Pipewrench Charlie 4 Beachin Lindy

P 4 Brookdale Johnny 3 Cold Creek Guerero 2 Odds On Kickoff

P 7 Maskedman 1 Lyons King 5 I Ama Rocket

P 10 Talk Racy To Me 7 Larceny 1 Come On Artie

#1 RUNNINTHESTREETS is one of the more established though one of the few older horses. She has current form coming into this as the second start off the layoff and from a closing place finish (and GALLOP+) on 12/30. Her established form coming into this race makes her the horse to beat and a slight class edge over #3 STREET PAINTER and #6 ADAMANTLY, though there are many lightly raced and FTS in the group that perhaps have yet to show their best.

That could even include #11 WHO LU will make a very belated second start returning today as a four year old and for a trainer that has not sent out a runner since 2012. She debuted back in December 2022, ran an even effort of the day though the race she ran in turned out to be a productive race with many coming back to win and improve their figures.

#8 NO COINCIDENCES has the older runners to take on as she makes her second start returning from a game (B OptixGRADE) effort on debut staying on as the BOS through a solid pace. The top three finishers set the pace to finish 1-2-3 and #2 LADY WOOPIG can be upgraded as she made up a lot of ground (MOVE, CLOSE) after the SLOG.

#4 BLUE EMBER debuted opening week and from a MSW race where we are just starting to see horses come back from and in the limited sample have improved in their second start and that was from runners that finished well off the board. This filly gave a good account of herself finishing third and had some wagering support as the second choice from the 5-1 ML.

In terms of the FTS #7 Q’S YOUR MAMA appears well-prepared off the series of local works and unable to draw in off the AE last Sat, assigned the 7-2 ML. #9 AIR CASTLE could come down from the 15-1 ML for the capable connections and from a steady worktab before the winter delay. #5 WILDWOOD QUEEN was still growing back in June when working 10.1 at the sale though all around solid visuals at the time. Her published worktab coming into this race has some gaps as a reservation. 

#1 B SUDD turned in a BTL effort with a less than ideal trip over and off-track to finish in a blanket at the wire on 1/5. He will return under similar conditions giving them a look on return though number wise must step up to win. #7 FAVORITE OUTLAW could fall into a similar category as he has come up short under similar N1 conditions in the past though does return from a win and that could assist in terms of confidence.

#6 CAMP DADDY is worth a mention as he has been racing competitively at the N1 condition at FG, though as they make the surface switch here, he take a big step up in class, something that does not appear to be compensated for in the odds based on the ML.

#9 JULLIARD could have some class weakness, though to his credit he has proven himself over this course and improved last season.  A similar progression could follow today as he makes his second start back off the layoff and fitness from a less than ideal trip at the mile distance cutting back to a sprint. Will also keep #2 COLD AS HELL in the mix as he expects to return to his front running ways and on his best day holds numbers and efforts that stack up with the bulk of the field including #10 SINNER’S SIN. 

#8 STUCK N SNOW has the foundation and subtle trip from last season to build off of as he makes his second start of the meet. This pattern falls similar to last season improving second off, in his second career start and making the transition from open company to statebred.

#9 WHERE’S RANDY was looking to follow a similar pattern heading into this meet when entered under similar conditions to today’s race and was a late scratch nearing post time on 12/17 and was favored by the public at the time of the scratch. That late scratch defaulted #1 TOPF ROAD RULES to the favorite and forced to set the pace and also dropped the odds on #3 CHOCTAW ZIP one that had some hurdles coming back from the layoff and into a route debut. From there he had continued adversity in racing in TRAFFIC playing a role in the outcome and still turned in a competitive race, all things considered.

As far as morning line favorite, #4 MIDNIGHT TAXES he has legit early speed and his races last season make him a logical type. With that said, he will give up recency coming back from the 251 day layoff and in terms of trip will have to prove best on the front end as there are others in this field like #5 ATTA PARTY looking to contest the lead and keep the early pace honest. 

As far as the runners with experience, #2 MR. FILLIP stepped up off the BTL debut at RP with a strong figure in the 12/31 place finish behind the pacesetting winner, Time for Truth in a race where most of the field broke SLOG or TROUBLE_S and MR FILLIP did appear to run a top effort on the day.

The numbers for #4 EXCITABLE BOY sit right in line with many of the other runners with experience in this field and his numbers earned back in the summer at Hawthorne – and at a time for the Robertson barn not necessarily known for sending out live juveniles that time of year. EXCITABLE BOY hold some consistent works coming into this race to bring a good account of himself. #10  DAILY GRIND has caught some solid horses in his races to date and perhaps just catches the right group here as he comes back with fitness, foundation over this course and distance and makes some changes for this event.

Time for Truth was making his debut on the day for Moquett, and the barn will send out FTS #12 MARAVICH here. There appears some expectations for this one as he was nominated to the Smarty Jones and makes their debut on a big Saturday. He must come out running with this full field and the outside post though in capable hands. He projects to be longer than #8 MORUNNING for Cox making a belated debut as well as #6 HAPPY GREY one that scratched as an AE on 1/20 at the FG on the Lecomte undercard.  #9 SESAME STREEK also debuting here and belated debut as he was training earlier in 2023 and had a setback over the summer. He was showing interest working in company though unclear the class level as one of the questions that will be answered this afternoon. 

#1 JOE FRAZIER picked up the win under today’s starter conditions, second off last year. He did show post the same figure as his March return on 12/29, however he did have a rough start and not asked for his best in a race that was dominated on the front end as the pacesetters ran 1-2-3. That included the winner, #7 JACKMAN one that was able to stay on as BOS and came back to pair wins as a lone speed on 1/13 and projects to find a more contentious pace today.

#7 VULCAN makes his third start this season and one that has some early speed though was forced into that role in the December races and could take up a stalking trip today given the complexion on the field. #8 MACRON could also find himself the right trip and fits as a contender based on prior form, form he has yet to show since exiting the Asmussen back in 2022, though if he is to return to top form this would be the time and place (especially with the front wraps off) and price compensation will be in play as well.

#10 ROB THE RICH did not present much value giving up local experience and stepping up to this circuit on 12/29. That should change here as he has the local experience, a preferred race dynamic for his runstyle and should sit at longer odds today. He should also present longer odds than rival #12 STAGE LEFT one that has a win at this level, course/distance from opening week though has done a lot of running and traveling since and is given no favors here at the draw. 

Brian Hernandez, Jr. often has first call on the McPeek runners and comes into town today with #1 THOUSAND SPRINGS as one of his mounts on the card. This colt will stretch out for his second start and going back to the 12/30 FG debut, made a positive PRERACE appearance and showed a MOVE after a SLOG behind a good open length pacesetting winner, Doncho. Stablemate #8 SPECIAL DISPATCH has the benefit of local experience and over this course and two turn distance returning from a BTL effort in his own right making up ground/MOVE after the SLOG behind the top two finishers well clear, also the top two betting choices.

#8 WILL TAKE IT had a tough task when he made his debut on 12/31 giving up experience going two turns on debut and has that under his belt capable of improvement for this second start. Prior to the debut, he had some local works though the majority of his foundation was provided training in FL under Ralph Nicks.

#2 DIMATIC has the benefit of two turn experience and foundation in this third start. While he has shown some subtle improvement, overall must show more and does not hold much of an edge in this group as assigned the morning line favorite. There are not the same value concerns though improvement is still requires for #3 PROMISSIO one that looked to present upside after the KEE debut though has yet to take that big move forward – both runners tested for class here. 

#6 ZEITLOS is logical in this spot as she fits the allowance condition and could be a more conservative move bringing her back in this spot for the first race of the year rather than go to stakes company, a move that surprisingly has not been given yet. She has tactical speed without needing the lead to work a trip as #11 AUNT BECCA likely will be forced into the race given the draw and joined by #2 BACKYARD MONEY and #7 I’M THE BOSS OF ME for that early lead.

#9 VERYLITTLECENTS has back class and numbers from her sophomore season that stack up on par. There could be some intent as she makes her second start off the layoff with conditioning coming back from a blanket for show finish over an off track last month. She has that edge in recency over #10 SARAH HARPER another with back numbers and class that fit on par here with a top effort. In addition to VERYLITTLECENTS, Morse will also sent out #5 KANTEX, a talented type that will be given a class test here stepping back up to take on open company.

#4 TRAVERSE makes her return off the layoff and looking to continue a strong record at Oaklawn. She will return to the sprint distance which could appear as a “prep” based on the route races, however she physically does appear suited to the ONE_TURN and less of a concern especially if it comes with price compensation.

#3 DEALING JUSTICE had held her own under similar allowance events and comes back today under those conditions. The connections picked her up for the higher $62.5k tag back in December and figured nothing to lose wheeling back off the claim two weeks later in the Poinsettia stakes. She was overmatched on the day though turned in a solid CLOSE at the shorter 5.5f distance. 

Asmussen will send out a trio in this race and #4 JAXON TRAVELER projects to be the higher of the group and fits this race on his best day. He will make a very belated Oaklawn return going back to his sophomore season when just missing in the Gazebo and coming right back to win the Bachelor, both races at the 6f distance. He has held his form since though has struggled with the layoff lines. He can often move up second start though could also present a winning race here under Rosario, the two are a perfect 2 for 2 together.

#3 TEJANO TWIST will look to benefit from the projected contentious early pace kept honest with #8 SKELLY in the field and drawn outside as well as his stablemates #2 EXCESS MAGIC and #5 EDGE TO EDGE one that has been his most effective at Oaklawn on the lead. The big late kick from TEJANO TWIST has been on full display pairing up wins to close out 2023 and looking to keep that momentum into 2024.

The majority of this race is supplemented by Chris Hartman and Steve Asmussen with Moquett sending out #7 OSBOURNE (looking to run on late, minor share) and Paul McGee looking to play spoiler with #6 MILES AHEAD; a gelding found himself overmatched in the King Cotton last year though  that race par was a bit higher and following the event improved in the Whitmore (G3) with the place finish and figure progression.  

#9 DENIM AND PEARLS comes into this race as the horse to beat with established form and figures both at the route distance and in stakes company. Heading into the Years End stakes there was some mild concern of regression coming off a top effort in the 11/25 allowance. She took a slight step back though gave an honest effort making a WIDE MOVE to just get caught late. #4 NEOM BEACH also turned in a respectable effort staying on as the BOS through a Very Fast early pace and in her first start over this course could benefit from the experience, though in her case she must improve number wise as there has not been that progression shown to this point.

#6 SARATOGA SECRET has graded stakes form keying off the G3 place finish last summer at SAR. Since she has held her own in tough company with both the Fern Creek and the allowance here on 12/17 both contentious events that held a higher race par than today’s stakes race. She will be tested to stretch out in distance, though to this point there is nothing to present a knock on that change alone. 

#4 ALVA STARR will look to get back on track and back to her game at 6f in this seasonal debut. The connections return to Oaklawn where they started late in the season in May and continued to improve with each start. She also has taken her gate to the front end and improved with that tactical change. Her early speed should be the controlling, class, speed of the speed in this field, though she should not be alone and projects to take honest pace pressure given the complexion on this field.

#3 ADELINE JULIA found her stride and form at Oaklawn last year and continued to improve with racing as well as a solid local record. She will return to stakes company and return to the sprint distance, a distance where she has recorded her faster figures; and the Mistletoe mile should prove the right fitness into this race. #8 CONDENSATION will also return to a sprint distance and has form on this circuit going back to last season. She comes into this race with figures in the third start of the cycle and improving figures into this race and has yet to run back to a top figure this cycle. One of her higher figures to date was recorded back in September at CD with a similar turf to dirt move and that comes back into play today. Number wise #9 ROYAL SPA is a little lighter than some of her rivals, she could present some upside though something that would require price compensation and could end up as the second choice. 

#1 NEXT REVOLT could find contention with #8 ALEXANDER HELIOS and assist his Diodoro trained stablemate #7 COSMO with a trip. Value is not as appealing on any of the three something that could upgrade the longer odds of the logical trip and that role could sit with COSMO.

#11 TEN DAYS LATER turned in a BTL effort under similar N1 allowance conditions on 12/17 though had some reservations on the quick turnaround wheeling right back for one more start before the end of the year. He will return today with Hernandez, the rider that gave him a great ride and every chance just second best on 11/17 to Highland Falls, a next out allowance winner at the FG.

#6 ELUSIVE TARGET did not make the top three selections as he has come up short at this level and steps up in terms of race par form the two prior starts this season, though has been able to hit the board and for live connections a similar result is not out of their wheelhouse.