Handicapper Tips & Picks

WITHERS (G3) 

The race becomes playable as #3 LIGHTLINE is assigned the role of the morning line favorite and a weaker type in that role. He is capable though has not run as "fast" as some of the others, has shown gate (SLOG) issues and does not hold a class or pace advantage to justify the "horse to beat" projected odds. 

Pletcher will return with a pair: #9 KHANATE showed improvement with racing and has run against some quality types keying off the November allowance at CD (Parchment Party) and will look to build off the fitness coming back from the Jerome in this second start off the layoff; #1 SPEED RUNNER takes a big step up in class off the maiden win, though from the visuals handled the 9f distance (stamina) and his runstyle could sit a trip (pace) in today race shape. 

#7 MISSION BEACH has some graded stakes experience and foundation as he comes off a win in the third start in this cycle. He can improve with the current progression and upside keying off his debut number, a figure he can run back to or even step forward from. 

#4 EL GRANDE O also lacks value as the projected 5-2 ML suggests. He has recorded some of the higher figures in the field, though has often struggled to pair those higher figures and hold the numbers in open company. The added ground for today's race could also present a further hurdle. If looking at runners moving up to open company #8 UNCLE HEAVY is preferred he has shown stamina and some class breaking his maiden on debut and overcoming adversity and showing grit to win the Wait For It stakes. 

The HOLY BULL (G3) might not present the best wagering opportunity of the day, though a key race to follow and will get a lot of attention.

#7 FIERCENESS does not project to offer much value in this race though does appear a legitimate favorite. His class, speed and runstyle fit today's race shape and while he will give up recency in the first start of the season, he is working steadily and strongly with stakes stablemate Locked and recent (GP 12/30) debut winner, Born Noble (91 fig) on 1/20 to prepare for this race. 

Prior to the scratches, #3 OTELLO presented some vulnerabilities in the Mucho Macho Man stakes last month. He was able to pick up the win on the day and showed some class to do so while number wise a slight drop from the debut figure. That is less of a concern here as the timing and cycle of today's race should have him sitting on a peak effort. 

SOUTHWEST STAKES (G3)

#6 LIBERAL ARTS will give up some recency, though will track for class as the lone graded stakes winner in the field coming back from the G3 Streer Sense and that from a BTL G3 Iroquois effort. In addition to proven class he backed that up with improving figures and added ground. His runstyle fits today’s race shape as the pace should be kept honest and has enough tactical speed to put himself in the race paired with finishing ability.

#9 AWESOME ROAD has graded stakes form though has not been as effective and certainly not up to the expectations of the public in those events. He had some excuses with the TROUBLE in the Breeders Futurity (G1; and less obvious, though still impactful trouble closing out the year at CD. He has trained forwardly into this seasonal debut out to redeem himself and the public returning here and the connections picking this spot rather than the Lecomte (g3) on 1/20 at FG.

The pace of this race projects to be quick with Baffert sending in #5 WYNSTOCK (one it seems you wanted the last couple times as he will be much shorter today) and #7 CARBONE one that has shown legit early speed both sprinting and stretching out last month. There are others in this field such as #1 MAYCOCKS BAY and #4 OTTO THE CONQUEROR that have been more effective on or near the lead. Runners like #8 COASTAL DEFENSE and #9 LINEBACKER have shown the ability to rate and finish and will likely get more attention than #3 MAGIC GRANT. The Milligan trainee shows up as an improving type that has stepped up in each start and has been working steadily since the Springboard Mile when making a WIDE MOVE and behind the top two that ran forwardly placed (including OTTO THE CONQUEROR) throughout and continued to GALLOP+ out after the wire.