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Sat February 10th, 2024 |
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Stakes Spotlight
Tampa Bay Downs Race 10
Post Time 4:15 PM CST
SAM F. DAVIS (G3)
In the past five years there has only been on winning favorite, Classic Causeway in 2020. That is not to knock #9 CHANGE OF COMMAND on that alone as he can still be considered the horse to beat, though could still be an underlay in that role. He is capable, has solid connections, upside though coming into this race he does not hold any overwhelmingly strong edge in this field.
A lot of the local horses can get dismissed and suggested by the morning line. #4 CRAZY MASON presents value at the projected 10-1 as one of the "Tampa" horses coming into this race. The quotes are used as he has form over multiple race tracks including his dominant maiden win at Saratoga. He has continued to progress, improve with added ground and shown he can overcome adversity. That was the case in the 1/14 allowance getting a shuffled and losing position and first run showing class and an extra gear to get up over #11 FULMINEO and move into a slower pace. FULMINEO was making his return to dirt and given credit for the ground loss, WIDE trip and has some class keying off the Pilgrim (G2) not far off #6 AGATE ROAD, another that could fall into underlay territory. Timing wise that allowance race was less than 30 days ago and CRAZY MASON did have to work hard to get the win, something that should be factored and required into the odds to play.
#5 NO MORE TIME has a lot to prove though has upside from the subtle trip in the Mucho Macho Man stakes and can present a move forward in this second start of the cycle just as he did last year with the improvement all around breaking his maiden. Mott has had some success with maiden winners into this race and is represented by #12 ELYSIAN MEADOWS. As an individual he has done nothing wrong, though must improve and has the additional hurdles from the outside and first start around two turns.