Handicapper Tips & Picks

RISEN STAR (G2): 

I understand the pubic attention that will fall to #11 TRACK PHANTOM in this race. The key to the game is being contrarian when given an edge, that is the potential edge to play against here as the favorite. TRACK PHANTOM is undeniably coming back off three straight wins with solid front end efforts and even in my opinion (and data Q1 Square) he has the edge over the other pacesetters in this field. His effort in the Gun Runner was strong effort as he took pace pressure (BOS, X_FLOW) through a solid pace before kicking away (MOVE) from his rivals. That type of effort could be taxing and as he returned in the Lecomte (G3) 28-days later, he did take a step back number wise. The effort was also earned with a LONE trip, something he is not as likely to find in the complexion of this field. Not only did the number slightly decline, visually he appeared to show the effects to the Gun Runner.  To win this race as it is drawn, he must be required to show up with a top effort and there are some concerns on that front based on his form cycle. 

#3 HONOR MARIE fits as a solid contender. He will give up recency and his runstyle must work, though he less of a concern given his class paired with speed figures, consistently fit on par. He has been training forwardly into this race  (with a workmate called Drip debuting earlier on the card) and off the visuals should be race ready. Bejarano comes in town to ride; this is his only mount on the card and exchanging for some potentially live mounts today at Oaklawn. 

#8 CATCHING FREEDOM must step up in the speed figure department though could take that step forward and one that has yet to run a bad race - including the November allowance earning a B OptixGRADE, despite the fourth place result. He will make his graded stakes debut but that is taking nothing away from a $300k Smarty Jones win, a race where the 5th place finisher, Mystik Dan came back to win the Southwest (G3) earlier this month. 

Value is the main knock with the deep closing #4 SIERRA LEONE as the likely second choice coming back from the Remsen (G2) a common race with #5 MOONLIGHT one that requires improvement to compete and should project to show more tactical speed today. 

#12 BEE DANCER has a tough task coming off a strong B+ debut win stretching out in distance, showing up in graded stakes company and with the outside post. With all of that said, this horse has some ability and one to follow and would not be at least surprised for him to show up with a competitive effort.