Handicapper Tips & Picks

#4 LOVERS NEVER SAY was on a progressive pattern here at the FG before moving to stakes company earlier this month. She could be overlooked for the connections and with early speed, something that has been effective over the turf course this week. 

#9 COPPER EM lands in this spot and reasonable changes for this event. Going back to the CD event she physically presented as TURF/ONE_TURN and some excuse acting up in the GATE. She stepped up off that race returning three weeks ago at OP and should benefit from the start and conditioning with some intent. #10 WONDER OF YOU was dominant breaking her maiden back in January. She was scheduled for the turf that day and has been freshened here where there could be intent for this surface. 

#7 SHARP ATTITUTE comes back with form over this course and class relief off the layoff. The drop is less of a concern with this homebred coming back as a 4yo and placing her where she can compete off the races/figures she has recorded to date. #6 SHE’S TABOO has some gate issues though has been able to recover and show early speed. She will make her second start off the layoff and coming back from a slightly higher par MCL event earlier this month. While the William Martin mare #1 QUIERO DINERO has established form and in the money finishes that could translate to similar here, she will give up recency and has some gaps in the published worktab; the Timothy Martin #4 LINE RUNNER filly comes in with steady works and training here last season to suggest some intent for this meet and given the setbacks could be the type that will come out running. 

#1 OLLIEMEISTER will come back with the freshening for the first start of 2024 and from a tough beat here back in December. He did all the work on the front end to get caught by the owners other horse, Summer in Malibu. While not a “need the lead” type they could take that same aggressive tactic here with the rail draw and the complexion of this field.

#6 HUNTSVILLE also returns from that 12/17 common race where he took contact at the start and moved up into the fast opening ¼. His overall form is lighter than others though could project a move forward here. #2 A LA CARTE is a little more obvious from that race as he has been a consistent in the money finisher. He also has been consistently SLOG and coming up shorter on the win end or effort needed to win.

#7 KATTATH has his three wins at the claiming level, though those events held a similar race par to today’s event and that could see him compete off buried form. Some price compensation should be required with that change in class and layoff, though could be there and overlooked.

#8 CLEAR THE AIR is another that has shown early speed though is not a need the lead type despite the manner of his dominant win back in December at TP.  That race is notable as it was his lone start in for the claiming tag that allows for them to race eligible here at this starter condition. 

The class drop and picking up Lasix could be the right combination for #3 TWIRLING TROLLET coming back in this 3yo debut. His effort from the first two starts stack up on par and the two that followed were much tougher competition that what he projects to take on today. #2 MASTER OF DISGUISE finds a lateral class change and has improved on the drop and no reason to suggest he cannot continue to carry his form here. #8 JACKED has probably faced the stronger group of horses to date and compared to the others making a class/circuit change to run here. Overall he must step up though if there were a time this should be it.

There are two first time starters in this field and both #4 SPECIAL TAP and #5 STORM CAT EYES going out for capable connections and in the type of field where a new face could jump up. 

#2 SULWE could hold a class edge in this group as most of her races to date and one turn efforts here at Oaklawn fit on par. Her class edge could be required to work a trip as she like many in this field lack tactical speed and trip/pace is required.  

#5 C. C. HARBOR will make her third start this season and the change in class as she shifts to statebred company for the first time this year. Her form has been progressive and coming back from a BTL effort and rider change noted as Torres takes back over.

Both #3 HISSY MISSY and #6 HOT SPRINGS BLING could bring some early speed stretching out in distance and with limited router races and some stamina question. The two bring form into this race that could translate here, and HOT SPRINGS BLING has been able to turn out a top effort in the third start of a form cycle and has that pattern into this event. 

The race shape here is a contrast to R4 as there could be any number of horses looking for the lead and looking to assert themselves on the front end. That is likely to include #6 RABBIT HOUND making his local and 2024 debut and #3 ALL CHOKED UP with the class drop and stretch out in distance and keying off his better races when on or near the lead – something that did not play in his favor last month with a TROUBLE_S and kicking KICKBACK behind horses.

#7 CALRISSIAN might just land in the right time, place, and trip. He was entered here under similar conditions with Bejarano back in January and before the recent TP event. Class wise this is a slight step up though  can be offset with the intent and form prior to the long layoff.

#8 AMERICAN ICON could also find that same trip and has some back class and two turn route form buried in his past performances. He should be fit in this second start off the layoff and claim and some intent as they raced protected last out and drop back into claiming company here.

#4 AIN’T THAT A KICK could benefit from that contention and with a better start (not guaranteed with the SLOG pattern) has some form this season and at the N2 level to get into the mix.

#4 RAM is a logical type while not the most consistent “win” type. That was a concern last out and played out to some extent in the outcome, though the poor WEATHER impacted track conditions and less than ideal ride also playing a role. Perhaps even the layoff leading into 1/27 and returns with the second-off conditioning here.

#1 SEVEN FLAT has recorded some of his more competitive efforts in claiming company and a reasonable spot bringing him back at this level this season. The distance change is also in class though has just a limited one-turn sample of races and held his route form and figures to suggest he can do the same here. #7 LIL SWEET THANG is interesting in this spot and making a return off the layoff and first start for a claiming tag. He has some solid sprint form and form over this course from last season compromised with a pair of subtle trips that did not allow for him to show his best on the day.

#8 LEAGUE OF LEGENDS fits in this group as an individual and can be upgraded at the right price. His lack of early speed has played a role in the outcome this season and in prior seasons still looking for that first win since April 2022. 

#5 UPSTRIKER appears well intended for the connections coming back off the layoff. They were entered in a similar starter allowance last month and suggests intent returning under those same conditions and protected. His figures stack on par, holds form over this course and runstyle with tactical speed fits today’s race shape and he along with #10 TEE BURNS should keep #9 JACKMAN honest.

#2 LAKE RADIO fits at this level though came up short with a PERFECT trip under similar conditions on 12/29. He could benefit from the freshening and live connections are tough to discount. #11 ULTIMATE has held his form this season though has been facing a higher allowance and stakes group playing a role in the outcome and his ability to compete. Holding his form he should move up naturally in today’s field. 

#3 TRACK MATE will find a subtle change returning to allowance company as he has had to deal with slightly tougher company looking at the race par and going much longer last month. The subtle changes today could benefit him, and today’s race shape should allow him to show his race speed and be effective here. He has more foundation and experience against winners, something #2 RAGING will give up here and could be favored given the connections.

#6 B SUDD has turned in back-to-back BTL efforts at this level, though has not quite shown enough for enough improvement to have a lot of confidence as a prime contender, though can hold his form and fit today’s race picking up another share. #8 ZAMBEZI must also improve though has some back numbers and a freshening that could suggest that move forward here. Also worth a mention to #5 CODE FIVE one that has a big test against today’s group giving up recency off the long 440-day layoff. With that said, there has been intent for this horse at Oaklawn going back to last year as well as earlier this meet when entered during the cancellations. He showed ability breaking his maiden on debut in stakes company and with that race during the juvenile season, some improvement with maturity is not out of the question. 

#3 RYVIT scratched from the King Cotton stakes this spot being only slightly softer in par and purse. As a further positive, he will not have to face his stablemate Skelly and has been given the added recovery time coming back in this spot. He will be joined by his stablemate #7 CHASING TIME one looking to get back to a top effort and find the right spot in this second start off the layoff and return to Oaklawn.

RYVIT has shown early speed in the past and likely must show that again here with #2 TAPATIO LEO in the field, one that has  been effective in this recent starts with the LONE trip, something he will try to secure once again though could find company especially with #6 EXCESS MAGIC and even 31 SIR WELLINGTON looking for a more assertive ride from the rail.

#4 EMPIRE OF GOLD makes a belated Oaklawn return and return to allowance company on this circuit a change from the last two years making just one appearance each in graded stakes company. Going back to 2021 he scored over this course and distance in similar restricted allowance conditions.  #5 DEVIL’S TOWER also has had success here at Oaklawn though class wise will be given a test in this spot despite coming off a stakes win.

#5 ALL GREEN LIGHTS earned a follow off his debut with a less than ideal ride and further upgraded from a subtle trip last month and competitive effort (B-) all things considered and visually can IMPROVE. #11 GET AWAY WITH IT could also present a move forward and improve in this second start. Going back to his debut on 1/12 he caught the WEATHER impacted drying out track conditions and a compromised start had him in subtle trouble early and visually appears as one that wants to show more early speed and could show that here. #9 GENTLE BEN also found himself compromised with the 1/12 track profile and picks up a rider change and class change for this second start to project further improvement.

#12 CHEZ WHIZ could be upgraded from the 2/9 common race with #10 AMAZING SUCCESS one that dueled with the winner in a minimal change race shape. CHEZ WHIZ has yet to run a bad race and fits with this field off his form this season. He With that said, he has not shown enough on the win end and has been at the MCL condition whereas some others in this field make that class change today. #6 BERRYVILLE BULLET finds a change today even perhaps a slight drop from his debut against open company earlier this month.

#1 WON NINETY does not have an extensive worktab, though has enough local works to compete on debut for capable first out connections.

With some of the "logical" runners in the field long shots #1 BARSABAS and #6 KIMMER fit with buried form over this course and 6f distance to get a share and even not without an upset chance.

There is some "REGRESS" concern with #4 ELTONSINGSANOTHER coming back from a new top and first start against winners as one that could get a lot of attention and battle for favoritism.

#7 DIAMONDS DANZING should hold close to the ML for the connections and sit with fair odds in this race. She must run to a top effort to get the win, though has recorded competitive efforts and figures under similar conditions and her runstyle fits today's race shape. 

#8 BRONKO NAGURSKI will get a chance to stretch back out to a mile and for the first time this season. Prior to the layoff he showed ability and a physicality to handle turf, parlayed to a dominant B+ MSW coming off the layoff in January. He was rushed back to take on winners two weeks later and has been freshened for this return and should be sitting on a top effort.

A pair of runners can be upgraded from the 1/26 event: #4 DRUIDIC was given a complete EX - EXCUSE and part of that due to rider TACTIC- returning with a rider change here; #9 BARELY FUNCTIONAL also has been compromised with poor TACTIC- this season and showing BTL efforts in the process - he should have the right pace to run at and work a trip in today's dynamic. 

#6 THISPOINTINTIME turned in a sneaky good effort under similar conditions back on 1/11 and given a change to IMPROVE here has a look and should be overlooked. 

#6 TELESCOPIC showed run on debut and projected to move forward off that initial PREP and did just that coming back on 1/26 with a sneaky good (B-) effort making TWO_MOVES and can continue to hold form. #2 OY VEY also presents upside from that 1/26 common race with a more "obvious trip" with legit TROUBLE+ and given an EX - EXCUSE. There are no real knocks on #9 PHREDDIE MAC the place finisher from that event returning here though should be shorter of the three.