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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Thu February 29th, 2024

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Emily's Analysis

Fair Grounds Race 1

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Price compensation is requires with the late runstyle of #2 FABLED RULER though he should have pace to run at and in the right spot to compete. He should be cycling back to a top after a pair of top efforts back in January. 

Fair Grounds Race 2

Post Time 1:15 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

The early pace should be contentious with the complexion of this field though still requires some tactical speed to work a trip: #7 COUNTRY BELLE with local form could find that sweet spot to work a trip along with #6 READY FOR THUNDER one that is similar and could be higher than #8 SARAH'S COURT. 

Fair Grounds Race 3

Post Time 1:45 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#9 JUS PRESS STAR projected to move forward off the debut PREP and STRETCH out in distance. While she did move up earlier this month, she broke SLOG and compromised in that higher par event and given a look coming back where she might not have shown her best. 

Fair Grounds Race 4

Post Time 2:15 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#4 SAINT EROS GIRL fits logically back under similar conditions in her second start of the meet. Today's race is a lower par and lower than she has faced throughout her career. She should be fits in this second start of the cycle from the WIDE trip racing in the rain/WEATHER. 

Fair Grounds Race 5

Post Time 2:45 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#2 GREAT COOLNESS turned in a BTL effort over the grass back in December. He  required recovery time following that effort and WIDE trip in January. That time off comes into play for this event and should be sitting on a peak effort in the right group to compete. #12 CHARLIE G also as given an EX - EXCUSE going back to November and was scratched four times with the races taken off the turf before showing up earlier this month off the two month break and unable to get into the race X_FLOW and the level was a tougher open group that the right level they land in here. 

Fair Grounds Race 6

Post Time 3:15 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#4 KAHALA returns under similar conditions from the event three weeks ago in this first start off the claim for Claire. He was compromised by the SLOG and the 5th place result was behind a much the best open length winner, Bubba Can Dance.

#1 JAY'S HOLIDAY will make a belated return to the FG and on current form should fit in this group. He will shift from a higher statebred group to run against open claimers here, a lateral move all things considered. 

Fair Grounds Race 7

Post Time 3:45 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Morning line favorite, #9 GOTTA KEEP HIM makes sense with their current form taking the drop in class and figures that stand out over the others in this field with more established form. With that said, there is a group of lightly raced types making the surface and/or class change and could pop up under those conditions.

The Rubley pair being some of those: #2 STORM FORCE was scheduled to debut on the TURF and physically looks right for the surface. #5 THEPLAINSMARSHALL also wheels back from that 2/4 common race and upside from the debut making a WIDE MOVE. 

#3 DREAM CRUISE was twice scheduled to debut on the turf in MCL company with both of those races taken off the turf before landing in MSW company two weeks ago. That race should be fine and taken more as a workout as they land here in the right level and intention for their abilities. 

In terms of #10 BRIE'S MISSION they have been consistent and can continue to hold form here though have come up short of a winning effort without much excuse and prefer to look at others for top spot. 

Fair Grounds Race 8

Post Time 4:15 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Tough to get too creative or excited about this race: #5 CHAMPLIN likely to be favored off the big fig debut and good effort though the race has not been productive, he has been off since and does step up to take on winners. At the same time he could catch the right group with the lack of depth. #7 ZIPPIN GIGI might not be the "best" horse though could be the value here and intent as they make their second start off the layoff and Hernandez returning. 

Fair Grounds Race 9

Post Time 4:45 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#7 LOCK IT UP will make a belated second start and first turf the surface intended when they made their debut back in January. The WEATHER conditions played a role and impacted the course favoring runners forwardly placed and LOCK IT UP taken back early (TACTIC-) was against, X_BIAS and still showed run in spots making a MOVE. She appears to gave come out of the race well working steadily since and one that could easily improve in just this second start. 

Fair Grounds Race 10

Post Time 5:15 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#3 SMART IZZY shows up in the right level to compete and upside on the "every other" pattern. The 1/7 effort was competitive and upgraded making a MOVE through TRAFFIC against the dynamic and returns under similar conditions here if not even a  softer group than she met that day. #9 ANITA'S VISION should also return to a top effort in this third start of the cycle, a pattern that has been effective for her in the past. She turned in a big effort off the layoff winning on 1/7 and showed some regression on 2/8 though still put in some run with a WIDE MOVE to suggest she has held her form.