Handicapper Tips & Picks

#5 CATCHUSIFYOUCAN should move up in this second start off the layoff and class drop from the event two weeks ago. She was heading into that race giving up experience off the 114-day layoff but also local experience and with the foundation should return to her top effort, one that fits on par. #8 INVALUABLE takes the drop to claiming company for the first time in a long time and appears the right move to place her where she can compete. She will also return to the sprint distance coming back from the traffic trip two weeks ago.

#1A MIA BABY was competitive in both starts this season under similar claiming conditions to the race she returns from today. She should move up on the drop and X_FLOW upgrade from the higher level claiming event two weeks ago. Her entrymate #1 Z ZS RED also wheeling back from that 2/18 common race and has shown progression with each start into this third start off the layoff and has yet to run to a top this season. 

#7 STREET PAINTER takes the right drop to compete and with current form coming into this race. She debuted at this MCL level last January just getting caught at the wire. She was stepped up in class in her second start and reclaimed by Cates closing out 2023. The barn has kept her protected coming back this year in MSW company and take this drop in the third start of the cycle and picking up a rider change to further intent.

#12 ARDEN AR also takes the class drop for a belated return. She is one that has had excessive layoffs throughout her career and returning from another in this sixth start starting out her 6yo season and given that history is the type that must show up race ready. Number wise not much progression could be projected though might not require much with the class drop moving her up naturally.  

#2 SOPHIE’S STAR also returns off the layoff and another that could be overlooked in this spot. Going back to last season her most competitive races were recorded in the two MCL events and those efforts stack up on par here. #1 TEKANA also returns off the layoff and for team Borel with the barn having some success with limited runners this season. Her turf figure fits on par and could present upside with those two starts recorded back in the sophomore season.

First time starter #4 SOUTHERN SPEIGHT shows up with steady works in this belated debut in her 4yo season. The barn is capable with these type of runners and some intent with Landeros aboard. 

#1 DRILL’S LI’L MAN should be live in this spot with the changes coming into this race. Throughout his career he has improved “second off” even if not always resulting in a win. In addition to the positive form cycle pattern, the placement two weeks ago appeared a “prep” and the drop is logical today placing him where he can compete and show early speed.

#5 ATOMIC TONE is a logical type for live connections first off the claim. They were claimed back on 1/28 for $30k have been waiting out the jail period to drop to run in a spot like this and on that day broke SLOG and chased inside NO_PUSH from off the pace.

#9 CREEKMORE was entered and scratched under similar conditions last month and fits this condition. He had a slight excuse back on 1/6 with a TROUBLE_S RUSH before losing ground. That race had not been overly productive still looking for a winner from that event, though many held form, and a few came close.

#3 BLACK STORM is cross entered earlier in the week. He also fits here though as noted in that prior spot the lack of early speed and trip from off the pace is something to consider on value though one that can come running late for a share at the least, something to keep in consideration for #6 PRESS SNOOZE as well. 

#3 LOOKSTER  has a level of  class to her and appears well intended as she shows up in this spot for her sophomore debut. She appeared to have high expectations on debut bet down from the 10-1 ML though a SLOG and race shape with no change in running order had her unable to compete. She quickly rebounded with a strong win breaking her maiden in the next start back in October at CD. Off that race she was rushed back in less than 30 days in a tougher allowance race, a race that included the winner Denim and Pearls the place finisher in both the Years End and Martha Washington stakes and Tarifa the G2 Rachel Alexandra stakes winner.

#6 PUN INTENDED has the local experience over this course and  and freshening coming back for this race in a first start of the season off the maiden win. She had the foundation in this third start and some class going back to her November debut finishing behind eventual Silverbulletday stakes winner West Omaha.

#5 IMPEL also will return fresh to take on winners in this second start. She will stretch out in distance here and appears intent with that change and placement on this circuit. The FG horses can often find this circuit as a step up in class, though this one could make the transition as the 1/1 race had seen improvement from those running back including the place finisher, Tipsy Tammy coming back to win with a 9 point  improvement. 

#10 AMOREAUX has had intent to race this meet entered under similar conditions surface and distance last month as a trainer scratch perhaps due to the WEATHER and poor track conditions. In addition to intent, she had upside from her debut given the experience and visually the right move with the class DROP to place her at the right level for her abilities.

Many of the runners here will return from 2/18 maiden races: the older runners from Race 4 could have the edge though likely to be shorter and still must improve:  #8 DOMINA projects to be favored  coming back from that event and for the connections. She likely recorded a top effort on the day and did have any adversity with a favorable trip with the barn sending out live runners. #6 DR WOODS MIRACLE finished in front of her a tougher one to trust given her overall record and lack of early speed though can come running on late again for a share. #11 RED SUNSHINE showed more than the running line and finishing position suggests.

A couple of sophomores from R2 on 2/18 worth a mention and could improve here: #5 FASHION IDOL showed run making a WIDE MOVE with less than ideal timing (TACTIC-) and returns here with a key rider change. #4 CATTY CRUISE had a longshot look two weeks ago with the positive distance change stretching out around two turns. While she did finish off the board, she stayed on as the BOS and should benefit from that race returning here. 

#2 ROYAL LAUGHTER projects to improve in this spot with the class drop and conditioning in this  second start off the layoff. She should bring fitness from that wide trip and foundation over this course and two turn distance going back to her debut here last season.

#6 FEARLESS KRISTIE showing up for live conditions as she makes her first start off the claim. She was claimed back in December for the $30k tag out of a competitive TP event that had held form and with horses coming back to improve figures as well as win. The surface switch is less of a concern as she holds dirt form going back to the first part of her career and also has been training steadily over this main track since that claim. Her former stablemate #7 SALSALITA VERDE makes her first start off the claim for McKnight and stepping up against winners, there are some hurdles for her on the win end, though can hold her form for a share.

#10 PIVOSKY has some buried form and route form that could transfer her moving her up as she projects to be one of the longer priced runner in this field. She will stretch out for the first time this season, though had held her form and the connections that have had her from the start continue to keep her at this N2 level rather than drop. 

#2 KOMOREBINO OMOIDE is tough to access. Running back to the debut last season this one wins with me on his back, though comes back today off the long layoff and significant class drop, where the intention can be to win, though at the right number where they are also looking for this one to be claimed. The barn also looking to send out #13 HAPPY TEARS an obvious upgrade should they draw in off the AE.

Similar follows #10 KINGMAKER as he has races on more than one occasion that stand out high above par. They took the significant drop, a reasonable move for this one closing out 2023 at KEE and has some adversity coming up short behind open length winner Bourbon Fever, though the layoff lines likely tell more of the story.

Outside of those two running back to their top efforts this race is wide open with many others evenly matched. #1 KANT CONQUER ME should hold double digit odds to get creative with. He moves up on the much needed class DROP to compete. He has shown progression this season, though compromised at the higher maiden level and should move up naturally here and at the same time overlooked off the running lines and finishing positions, along with the connections. He is cross entered in a maiden race earlier this weekend sitting on the AE along with #4 CLOUD WITHOUT REIN, another to consider and should be longer odds than rivals #8 VIOLENT RIVER and #12 LOOK SHARP with nearly identical form. 

#10 FRAT PACK is one of a group making a season debut in this spot. He is a lightly raced now 5yo that has been consistent and progressive in his races to date. This will be his first start outside of the NYRA circuit though appears as race ready as ca be off the published works and well placed here where he fits the condition to start the season and go from there.

The placement is a bit of a question mark for #1 ECHO AGAIN off the bench and into a sprint for the first time since his debut. While capable that one sprint race, his debut is the one race that makes him a contender here as the others fit this level, though lack an edge over others in the field, creating a big knock today as the projected favorite.

#2 SQUIRE CREEK also returns off the layoff and another that lacks an edge over others coming into this race. He also has yet to pass a horse and should find a contested pace given the complexion of this field and especially with the very quick #7 GOLDEN HORNET picking this spot to return in for Rivelli. He was entered under similar conditions last month and perhaps scratched due to the WEATHER and track conditions. His form and experience over this course is a further advantage.

#8 HAPPY IS A CHOICE comes back with the 37-day freshening after returning to his top effort winning the N1 allowance earlier this season. The freshening and overall form for this one suggests he can continue to compete here and if the pace is contentious early, he could find a similar stalking trip to that 1/26 win. 

#7 ADAMENTLY moves up naturally off her current form and necessary class DROP. She has held her form and figures since the debut last January, numbers and efforts not quite on the MSW level, though good enough to compete in this group.

#8 NGALA also takes the key drop in class with the connections placing her where she can clear the maiden condition. She comes into this race with current form and a flow upgrade from the 1/27 MSW event, setting the pace, staying on as the BOS. She projects to find company with a similar trip today with #6 KOKOMO STARLET in the field, giving NGALA the slight edge of the two.

With a projected honest pace from those two, #12 TIZ A STRATEGY moves up and could get overlooked off the recent running lines and with the outside post. She turned in a competitive race off the bench last month, finishing in a blanket for show and even going back to last season, was in BLANKET finish at the wire last March under similar MCL conditions to today.

Homebred #9 DENADA makes her belated debut for capable connections. She will give up recency on the others and similar for #4 RANGE LIFE showing up here on debut with a steady string of works though taking on older as well as giving up experience.  

SANTA ANITA HANDICAP (G1) 

Assessing the favorites, both #2 HIGHLAND FALLS (taking a big step up in class) and #7 NEWGRANGE (stepping up in class off perfect trips) must be taken on in that role. 

Distance is the main unknown for #5 NEWGATE one that otherwise fits on class and speed as well as current form as he projects to return to a top in this third start of the cycle. Stablemate #1 REINCARNATE returns from the layoff and projects to be on the lead given his prior success paired with the rail draw. That tactic should put pressure on #4 SALESMAN coming off a big figure though a different game from that 13f marathon event, taking the figure with a grain of salt. 

#6 SUBSANDOR comes into this race with the most upside in his second start of this season. He can be upgraded from the TRAFFIC trip in the San Antonio (G2) and has been training forwardly with the connections patiently waiting for the right spot. 

#3 MIXTO comes into this race lighter number wise, though otherwise is in top form. He paired BTL efforts in the two recent starts, both graded stakes races. From a visual standpoint this one has plenty of stamina and should have no issues with the extra furlong.