Handicapper Tips & Picks

#2 PRODIGIOUS BAY takes the big drop coming back from the long layoff, another layoff in their career. This one stands out with that class edge in addition to a likely pace advantage though there are some that could attempt to keep him honest A short price in this case is not the most appealing, though this is the horse to start with in this race.

#3 RACKATAPTAP has paid up BTL efforts in the two starts this season and will look to transfer that form going out first off the claim for Dan Ward. The distance change stretching out is also in play, though this gelding has prior form around two turns making that less of a reservation here.

McKnight has the pair with #4 VINCENZINO racing above condition once again likely one to be forward and press PRODIGIOUS BAY with #1 CHELSEA DAGGER making that late run similar to the tactics going back to the 2/18 common race. #6 CHISHOLM TRAIL also can take back and make a run, he has been effective with that runstyle in the past. His maiden win was off the pace over this course and distance earning one of his stronger figures to date, a longshot to consider in that scenario. 

#9 THE BIG CALHOUNA comes back today with some changes for the third start of the season. She had a legit excuse on debut and upgraded off that first start fell into a similar excuse back for the second start in late January. The connections bring her back with the drop, rider change and removal of the blinkers suggesting intent and worth another chance.

 #1 WEST COAST HARBOR should be fit from the debut 17-days ago making a RUSH into a Fast (X_FLOW) early pace. They wheel right back under similar conditions, suggesting intent and further intent as Bowen takes over, a rider that has had success with this barn this season. #5 SHE’S NOT A JOKE also projects upside from that 2/19 common race with less than ideal handing playing a role in her trip and outcome. She was upgraded on the drop after the two MSW races where she was overmatched this season.  

Those two present some upside in the face of #3 BUSINESS AS USUAL one that should move up naturally on the drop, though has the distance change as a question mark. #7 JUST AN OPINION has not shown much progression and another that on current form should move up though still must show more to win. 

#1 SPOTTED BULL has had some subtle excuses this season and should be at the right level to compete with a softer spot in this third start of the cycle. He likely needed the race and local experience back in December coming off the claim and first local start. He is upgraded from that event as well as the FG allowance showing run making a WIDE MOVE against X_BIAS. His entrymate #1A BAYRON acks the local experience and does not find the same change in class giving up recency though could play a role as an early pace factor.

#6 BASEBALL POLITICS has buried local Oaklawn form from 2022 that stacks up on par as he makes a belated return for Manley. Going back to those races he was recording figures on par at a higher protected level and as they return off the layoff today, they will remain protected not racing for the $10k tag.

#5 RAYMOND just picked up the win at this open $10k level and without a claim Diodoro wheels right back. On the day, they showed early speed, though this one is not a “need the lead” type and can stalk or push the pace if necessary. #2 LAMUTANAATTY is a bit of a wild card; he presented upside from an excuse here back on opening week. Freshened off that race he returned last month protected at HOU though just even in those races. Today’s par is more of a lateral move in terms of purse and par where he must take another step forward, a return to his top prior form in order to compete.

The change in class is a lateral move for #10 DALTON’S RUTROW returning to statebred company for the first time since his debut, an excuse first out season. He has held his form and a tough beat last month making a WIDE MOVE early into the pace to get caught in a photo.

Number wise he has been consistent, something of a question mark for #5 MONEYSTRIKE, one that jumped up with a big effort and figure on 1/13 that makes him a player here though that one race stands out among the others and requires that effort to win and validate his role as the likely favorite here. He also does not show a published work in February and was a vet scratch on 2/6. He is one of the older horses as is #6 WELCOMETOARKANSAS one that should be sitting on a peak effort in this second start off the layoff and first time racing at the MCL level, this would be the time for him to jump up with a top effort.

The 12/9 MSW event #2 CRIME ZONE debuted in has not been overly productive, though has seen horses improve number wise. That might be all they need in this second start with the change in class and local experience. Further changes are in play and the kitchen sink (gelding, blinkers off, Lasix) thrown their way for this race as well as a rider upgrade to Arrieta with steady works throughout February into this race. 

As far as #2 ETERNALLY GRATEFUL he has not run a barn race all season and should hold his form here. The challenge once again is trip and pace as he lacks early speed and off the series of place finishes and consistent figures, a short number if not favored is projected. That same knock carried to #6 JUNIOR BUG in the 2/16 common race as one that fits as a contender though can often find ways to come up short on the win end.

#4 LARRY’S LEGEND barely sneaks into this race on eligibility. He has just the one start when in for the $10k tag back in July 2022. He brings in some hidden early speed looking to get the jump on his main rivals and the placement here to remain protected appears positive and could move up back on the dirt and with the freshening at the right level.  

Willing to get creative for the top spot recognizing #3 MO MOVES is logical and has recorded the more consistent figures in this field and over #9 STRICKAND another seasoned older maiden in this race. With that said MO MOVES has come up short with the drop this season, he had a perfect trip with the place finish back in December and to be fair he did have some excuse with the race shape last month – a race shape that also compromised #4 LUCKY IS MY NAME a longshot upgraded here.

Looking to get creative, #10 BUBBY BOY is the one to take a stab with. He debuted last year in a tough spot going two turns first out catching an off track and far outside post in a race that turned out to be productive. The layoff was a concern just over a week ago and has some upside as they come right back on the quick turnaround off that race and given a move forward from the debut number he should be sitting on a top figure right on par for this race.

#7 PRINCE IS MY BOY has some upside with the class drop as he return to make his second start of the meet. Overall he must improve, though has not been in the right spot to compete since his races back at CBY, that race par closer to today’s event. 

#4 GAME KEEPER is the only older horse in this field and overdue for that maiden win. He has held his form throughout his career and comes back from a solid effort against winners,  a higher level allowance race last month.

#9 MR. SCATTER had a big look when entered in a similar higher MCL event last month, unable to race as a vet scratch that day and patiently waiting for a similar spot to run. The changes for this third start shifting to the dirt along with the added ground was projected for him to move forward and the form from the 1/12 race has held up as a further positive. #7 MILITANT is the lone new face and tough to knock as that unknown for capable connections. The one knock could be a projected short number given those connections. 

#11 FLASHY LASS returns from an EX – EXCUSE under similar allowance conditions last month. She presented some upside making her second start off the layoff and from the figures recorded during her sophomore season. The distance change while subtle could be a further positive based on her physicality at the flat mile.

#5 PARIS STYLE is worth another look at this level and season coming back from the 1/27 event. The WEATHER impacted the track with poor conditions and the profile favored inside runners, that included the open length winner, Jubella. PARIS STYLE showed some run in spots with a less than ideal TROUBLE_S making a middle move. Overall she must show up with a top effort to compete though would be the time and place to take a step forward.

Both #9 INSENSITIVE and #10 XYLOPHONE turned in competitive place finish efforts at this allowance level in their most recent starts. XYLOPHONE comes out of a stronger par race, though was FLOW aided from off the pace. #7 MY MY has the one race in her career that makes her competitive, the maiden win last June. That one race is an outlier compared to the others, though should she return to that effort she can compete here. 

#2 PREACHER’S KID is upgraded with the distance change and lateral move back in with statebred company. He has shown run in each start this season and this placement should be where he is able to put that all together. #3 SUNDAY SPIRIT takes a slight step up in race par here though has shown progress this season and tough to dismiss after a BTL effort last month and a repeat keeps them right back in the mix. His form should hold keying off rival #7 AMAZING SUCCESS one that debuted in the 2/9 common race and has remained consistent keying off another competitive race on 2/23 holding his form and figures in this third start.

In terms of the FTS, #4 CLASSIC CINEMA looks well prepared and placed to compete on debut. The barn is capable with these type of runners and similar with Landeros in the saddle.

#11 PREPAREDNESS must step up for a top spot though this one has foundation this season and some positive intent adding the blinkers today could see this one a bit more forward especially from the gate where the SLOG pattern has had him giving his rivals a head start.